January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[bncho]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Just started typing up the analysis and I think it'll generally make a lot of people rather happy. 

You're the best breakout star of this winter. You've already made a lot of people happy. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Kuchera ratios are 17-18:1 for most of us during peak. I mean I'm not saying I buy it, but I'm not saying I don't either. 

 

 

Likely not that high around here at least, but pushing 12:1 or so is possible during some part of the event I'd think.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS Sat am. Positive changes. 

[Kevin Reilly]

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet.

Also, as you head north the ratios increase incrementally so the northern tier of the snow maps will be higher and more uniform due to the higher ratios. 

[Wonderdog]

17 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It's safe to say that NC isn't getting 3 feet, right? RIGHT?!

Nothing safe with this one.

[IronTy]

Also pretty cool that it doesn't seem to get above freezing for at least the week after the storm.   

[GreyHat]

15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

Question, would the difference be due to sampling some of pieces that are needed to make this the storm

 

[bncho]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Question, would the difference be due to sampling some of pieces that are needed to make this the storm

 

I don't think those things are going to get sampled until tomorrow.

[WEATHER53]

18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z.

Disconcerting that it’s such an incredible change 

[WxUSAF]

19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z.  Love the GFS.

0z going to have a cutter to Detroit. But glad it and the AI shit out all tha bad chili from 12z

[midatlanticweather]

8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal.  Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily.  I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event.  It was only the details that were to be determined.  But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then.  From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details.  I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming.

There was that one GFS off run (hmmm - kind of similar!) with it south... only to turn around and bring the big stuff... MAN! Remember the radio show before that one!  DT was on it when he was kind of tolerable... LOL! 

 

[GreyHat]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

I don't think those things are going to get sampled until tomorrow.

Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Any further word on the 18Z GEFS?  I take it they at least held from 12Z and look solid?

[poprock49]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Also pretty cool that it doesn't seem to get above freezing for at least the week after the storm.   

Yep. NBM, courtesy of CWG's article

[bncho]

Just now, GreyHat said:

Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn.

It's genuinely probably because the GFS is a terrible model. I'm not even joking.

[IronTy]

1 minute ago, poprock49 said:

Yep. NBM, courtesy of CWG's article

Good also to see Saturday so cold so the ground is frozen ahead of time.  Avoids having to shovel and inch of slop at the bottom of the snow column. 

[Amped]

The sleet line usually ends up 50 miles north of where the gfs shows it. That maybe exaggerating the totals in NC and southern VA.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Nothing safe with this one.

There you are…Jesus I was getting nervous 

[IronTy]

Ensemble mean through 123 is looking diesel. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

Ensemble mean through 123 is looking diesel. 

Bob Chill has made a bad impression on you.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, GreyHat said:

Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn.

GFS OP  is prone to big jumps.  That’s why everyone says rely on ENS over 3 days out.  

[mob1]

[bncho]

GEFS more amped, more north. 

[CAPE]

At this range, this is right where we want it.

[CAPE]

[IronTy]

Mostly wrapped up at this point.  

[DDweatherman]

GEFS is a beaut, love to see the northward creep and bump in QPF. 

[Roger Smith]

This is looking very good to me, I think the only real change potential in modelling from here to game time is a slight weakening of the cold air barrier to the north, which has been modelled at near-record intensity (474 dm thickness contour at heart of the outbreak over nw MN on Friday and still sub-480 into Quebec by Sunday). This can weaken by a few dm thickness without doing any harm at all to your snowfall potential, in fact I would say a moderate weakening would still be a plus for all between NC and central New England.

18-24 inch potential with this one. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Good tight there.  3 days out.  This is money.  

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

the only real change potential in modelling from here to game time is a slight weakening of the cold air barrier to the north

Agree. And every little bit of weakening will bring the jack north a little bit.