bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Just started typing up the analysis and I think it'll generally make a lot of people rather happy. You're the best breakout star of this winter. You've already made a lot of people happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Kuchera ratios are 17-18:1 for most of us during peak. I mean I'm not saying I buy it, but I'm not saying I don't either. Likely not that high around here at least, but pushing 12:1 or so is possible during some part of the event I'd think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 WB 18Z GEFS Sat am. Positive changes. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I bet some of those 30” totals in NC is sleet. But a storm like this, especially a phaser, someone somewhere might get 2+ feet. Also, as you head north the ratios increase incrementally so the northern tier of the snow maps will be higher and more uniform due to the higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 17 minutes ago, dailylurker said: It's safe to say that NC isn't getting 3 feet, right? RIGHT?! Nothing safe with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Also pretty cool that it doesn't seem to get above freezing for at least the week after the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 15 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z. Question, would the difference be due to sampling some of pieces that are needed to make this the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, GreyHat said: Question, would the difference be due to sampling some of pieces that are needed to make this the storm I don't think those things are going to get sampled until tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS compared to 12Z. Disconcerting that it’s such an incredible change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Went from ~0.06" QPF to ~0.75" around DC from 12z to 18z. Love the GFS. 0z going to have a cutter to Detroit. But glad it and the AI shit out all tha bad chili from 12z 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 8 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: The 2016 blizzard obviously was a totally different animal. Mainly it was a far better-defined scenario (and a Nino) that the models can handle more easily. I've said this before, but I swear a week before it hit while looking at model discussion on this site, every single model clicked into place for a MAJOR event. It was only the details that were to be determined. But we ALL knew it was coming, and game on right then. From that point the models really didn't waver outside those fine details. I believe Feb. 2010 (the first one, Feb. 5-6) was similar, long lead where it was well pinned down what was coming. There was that one GFS off run (hmmm - kind of similar!) with it south... only to turn around and bring the big stuff... MAN! Remember the radio show before that one! DT was on it when he was kind of tolerable... LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreyHat Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, bncho said: I don't think those things are going to get sampled until tomorrow. Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Any further word on the 18Z GEFS? I take it they at least held from 12Z and look solid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poprock49 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Also pretty cool that it doesn't seem to get above freezing for at least the week after the storm. Yep. NBM, courtesy of CWG's article 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, GreyHat said: Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn. It's genuinely probably because the GFS is a terrible model. I'm not even joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, poprock49 said: Yep. NBM, courtesy of CWG's article Good also to see Saturday so cold so the ground is frozen ahead of time. Avoids having to shovel and inch of slop at the bottom of the snow column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The sleet line usually ends up 50 miles north of where the gfs shows it. That maybe exaggerating the totals in NC and southern VA. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Nothing safe with this one. There you are…Jesus I was getting nervous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Ensemble mean through 123 is looking diesel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Ensemble mean through 123 is looking diesel. Bob Chill has made a bad impression on you. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 minutes ago, GreyHat said: Okay, then what would make it jump like it did withoutany new data? I'm trying learn. GFS OP is prone to big jumps. That’s why everyone says rely on ENS over 3 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS more amped, more north. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 At this range, this is right where we want it. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Mostly wrapped up at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 GEFS is a beaut, love to see the northward creep and bump in QPF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 This is looking very good to me, I think the only real change potential in modelling from here to game time is a slight weakening of the cold air barrier to the north, which has been modelled at near-record intensity (474 dm thickness contour at heart of the outbreak over nw MN on Friday and still sub-480 into Quebec by Sunday). This can weaken by a few dm thickness without doing any harm at all to your snowfall potential, in fact I would say a moderate weakening would still be a plus for all between NC and central New England. 18-24 inch potential with this one. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Good tight there. 3 days out. This is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: the only real change potential in modelling from here to game time is a slight weakening of the cold air barrier to the north Agree. And every little bit of weakening will bring the jack north a little bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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