January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[snowfan]

Updated this morning. It’s been a long time since we’ve had one of these storms seemingly lock in at this range. The signal is strong with this one.

 

[Wintrest]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

What is it seeing that makes it want to cut the northern edge precip down so much? Seems like this was a bigger drop than just noise. 
 

I see the answer above. Thanks, @Terpeast

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS: several big hits!

[mappy]

Goooood morning weenies! Nice runs overnight.
 

Get your banter out of your system, I’m awake and paying attention 

[Ji]

WB 6Z GEFS: several big hits!

What happened with p12?

[Ji]

Mabrook(means congrats in Arabic)

The euro has initialized

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

What happened with p12?

Looks like the BAJA low never kicks east with 12

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI bounced back North this run.

[Ji]

Looks like the BAJA low never kicks east with 12

Good pickup. That would be crazy

[GreyHat]

I would assume there is starting to be better sampling of the system as the players start to enter the field.

[WxUSAF]

Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI bounced back North this run.

Add some more to that for kuchera

[dailylurker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. 

Yup. I feel like last night was a positive threshold we crossed into the land of OZ. Now we need to carefully follow the yellow brick road. Im out. No more banter lol

[Ji]

Add some more to that for kuchera

All the big ones slowly went from 10 to 12 to 15 to 18 to 24

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

0.83 inches ice accretion in East Texas. This is one time I am so grateful Austin is such a dry place. No way we get more than one 128th of an inch of ice. We are safe near Austin.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. 

The snowfall pattern on the Euro last night tells me it'll come further north and even up thru NE should do well. They already did OK on 0z, but I'll bet it gets better for them...and probably us too.

[Weather Will]

The secret to a big storm is scheduling a major appointment two months in advance....looks like I'm rescheduling next Monday.

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The secret to a big storm is scheduling a major appointment two months in advance....looks like I'm rescheduling next Monday.

If this thing holds, Montgomery County school children (like my middle schooler) will be annoyed. They have off Monday for an end of quarter teacher grading day. I think the teachers have to report in though, so they will be happy.

[mitchnick]

If that northern stream trough on the Euro was to sharpen some, it could tug the coastal back, or hold it in place an additional 3-6 hours, then we're not in business but in trouble. Lol

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

If this thing holds, Montgomery County school children (like my middle schooler) will be annoyed. They have off Monday for an end of quarter teacher grading day. I think the teachers have to report in though, so they will be happy.

If this thing becomes a HECS, then your middle schooler might get most of the week off regardless of Monday. Thats what happened in 1996, 2003, and 2010.

[RevWarReenactor]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The snowfall pattern on the Euro last night tells me it'll come further north and even up thru NE should do well. They already did OK on 0z, but I'll bet it gets better for them...and probably us too.

At some point I think ratios are going to matter with this cold. You can clearly see it on the precip maps where we might get less precip but the higher ratios make up for it in snowfall. I think we are any a great spot and if we have a jump north I assume the cold is not as strong and its mostly a wash with accumulations?

Euro AI shows only a 2 inch difference between Fredericksburg and Mon county NJ. A distance of 250 miles. 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If that northern stream trough on the Euro was to sharpen some, it could tug the coastal back, or hold it in place an additional 3-6 hours, then we're not in business but in trouble. Lol

I had that thought too. At that point we're calling Gov. Moore to airlift @Jebmanin to shovel us out. Godspeed Jeb

Ok that's my banter for the day. Going to lurk mode... Looking forward to today's runs. 

[Fozz]

Man I’d love to be in Maryland for this as I’ve waited 10 years for this kind of storm, but it will be tough for me. No need to feel bad though, I’m way up north now and can look forward to single digit highs this weekend 

You all better enjoy this, especially @SnowenOutThere and other young guys who’ve never seen a double digit storm above age 8-10.

[davidjd1114]

Nice. I love where we sit right now with heaviest totals in South Central VA. We all know that will end up this way.

Exactly what I was thinking


.

[mitchnick]

Euro another small tick slower this run.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO at 1am Monday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO at 1am Monday.

Beautiful look, delayed but not denied 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Did anyone see how far north the 3z SREF is at the end of its run? Even gives us some snow Friday

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO at 1am Monday.

It's a beaut Clark!!!  And looks like there is more to come after he 144

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO at 1am Monday.

Pummeled. We are locked in. The rush on the stores begins tomorrow