January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Safe to say the High pressure to the north is overdone, and the storm will shift a little north even if it means a little less phasing? I guess I'm asking what is the difference in outcome if the High pressure is 1035mb vs 1040mb? 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Safe to say the High pressure to the north is overdone, and the storm will shift a little north even if it means a little less phasing? I guess I'm asking what is the difference in outcome if the High pressure is 1035mb vs 1040mb? 

I would think the mix line moves north from NC to somewhere across south/central VA into lower delmarva, and the snowfall amounts north of that stay the same or a bit less. Just an educated guess

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I would think the mix line moves north from NC to somewhere across south/central VA into lower delmarva, and the snowfall amounts north of that stay the same or a bit less. Just an educated guess

All systems go. This agreement is something we haven’t seen in a very long time. A few more days of wobble watching.

[Weather Will]

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

[Silver Meteor]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Whew, that's a relief! Remember earlier estimates for ZR south of Virginia were horrific. 

[Solution Man]

24 hours of white smoke 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS ticked north compared to 0Z.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

Actually GFS AI is very similar to op GFS at both 500mb and sfc low positions. It's the precip shield that's a bit different, but I don't trust AI models on precip. I trust them more on 500mb and storm tracks

[snowfan]

Updated this morning. It’s been a long time since we’ve had one of these storms seemingly lock in at this range. The signal is strong with this one.

 

[Wintrest]

24 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I guess the fly in the ointment is that we basically have a non storm with GFS AI.

What is it seeing that makes it want to cut the northern edge precip down so much? Seems like this was a bigger drop than just noise. 
 

I see the answer above. Thanks, @Terpeast

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GEFS: several big hits!

[mappy]

Goooood morning weenies! Nice runs overnight.
 

Get your banter out of your system, I’m awake and paying attention 

[Ji]

WB 6Z GEFS: several big hits!

What happened with p12?

[Ji]

Mabrook(means congrats in Arabic)

The euro has initialized

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

What happened with p12?

Looks like the BAJA low never kicks east with 12

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO AI bounced back North this run.

[Ji]

Looks like the BAJA low never kicks east with 12

Good pickup. That would be crazy

[GreyHat]

I would assume there is starting to be better sampling of the system as the players start to enter the field.

[Benjamn3]

Bob Chill where you at dawg?

 

I’m in the bullseye right now and that makes me nervous. Lolol 

[WxUSAF]

Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. 

[Benjamn3]

Just now, GreyHat said:

I would assume there is starting to be better sampling of the system as the players start to enter the field.

Hey man, what day did you end getting back to the house? Sunday or Monday 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO AI bounced back North this run.

Add some more to that for kuchera

[dailylurker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. 

Yup. I feel like last night was a positive threshold we crossed into the land of OZ. Now we need to carefully follow the yellow brick road. Im out. No more banter lol

[Ji]

Add some more to that for kuchera

All the big ones slowly went from 10 to 12 to 15 to 18 to 24

[Jebman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

0.83 inches ice accretion in East Texas. This is one time I am so grateful Austin is such a dry place. No way we get more than one 128th of an inch of ice. We are safe near Austin.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Really good consensus for this range. Steady as she goes. 

The snowfall pattern on the Euro last night tells me it'll come further north and even up thru NE should do well. They already did OK on 0z, but I'll bet it gets better for them...and probably us too.

[Weather Will]

The secret to a big storm is scheduling a major appointment two months in advance....looks like I'm rescheduling next Monday.

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

The secret to a big storm is scheduling a major appointment two months in advance....looks like I'm rescheduling next Monday.

If this thing holds, Montgomery County school children (like my middle schooler) will be annoyed. They have off Monday for an end of quarter teacher grading day. I think the teachers have to report in though, so they will be happy.

[mitchnick]

If that northern stream trough on the Euro was to sharpen some, it could tug the coastal back, or hold it in place an additional 3-6 hours, then we're not in business but in trouble. Lol

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

If this thing holds, Montgomery County school children (like my middle schooler) will be annoyed. They have off Monday for an end of quarter teacher grading day. I think the teachers have to report in though, so they will be happy.

If this thing becomes a HECS, then your middle schooler might get most of the week off regardless of Monday. Thats what happened in 1996, 2003, and 2010.