January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[SnowenOutThere]

Biggest issue I've seen no one discuss about the storm shifting backwards is that it'll be getting further into sun angle season. C'mon guys we used to be a proper forum. 

[osfan24]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Dendrite bomb

Where do we sign up for that?

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

This is your breakout season my friend--you are ascending 

Just wait till you see the post I made just before this one! My best analysis yet I dare say. 

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

That's easily 15:1 if not 20:1 up here. We always do well with ratios here when the set up supports it.

Yeah. That is a drubbing in the favored areas. About time. We are due. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Where do we sign up for that?

[aldie 22]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. That is a drubbing in the favored areas. About time. We are due. 

Do we usually get in that stuff?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I’d be really interested to see the next few frames of the euro.  500 map is intriguing I wonder if a secondary low pops.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Do we usually get in that stuff?

Oh yeah. Usually from us up through PSU and Mappy into Southern PA get that western death band. I would prefer to have the precip max though obviously. 

[NorthArlington101]

Maybe I missed someone posting this but since it's 18z run tonight, still a few hours of snow to go past 18z Sunday.

Still a lot to go, honestly. Backend is in Texas

[HighStakes]

10 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

When it gets up to 50 degrees, people will balk that "it's too warm to snow".  Or it won't stick.  It was close to 70 a few days before 2016.

The FB civilians for sure will chime in with their moronic thoughts.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Still a lot to go, honestly. Backend is in Texas

Backend love.  Front end dump.  This event has it all.  Reminds me of my days as a merchant marine.  

[Eskimo Joe]

23 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Snowfall total on 18z EuroAI is incredible and there is a blizzard ongoing on the last frame sure to add more had the run been longer.

Yup. Numerous members now have double digit hits regionwide.

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Backend love.  Front end dump.  This event has it all.  Reminds me of my days as a merchant marine.  

When you’re honking, we got a chance

[TSSN+]

18z may have shifted earlier heavies south but it longer duration and looks like may bring more up after 144 and get heavier. It was basically over at that time on 12z 
 

 

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

When you’re honking, we got a chance

I think we are homing in on a final solution man.  See what I did there.  

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z may have shifted earlier heavies south but it longer duration and looks like may bring more up after 144 and get heavier. It was basically over at that time on 12z 
 

 

Yeah would you think 3-6 more minimum 

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z may have shifted earlier heavies south but it longer duration and looks like may bring more up after 144 and get heavier. It was basically over at that time on 12z 
 

 

Yeah I don’t think there is as much after 144 as many of you think if you look at this. It’s not like it’s climbing the coast and stalling out or something.

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

18z may have shifted earlier heavies south but it longer duration and looks like may bring more up after 144 and get heavier. It was basically over at that time on 12z 
 

 

Good catch. Euro may be trying to do that thing where it slows the storm down but it's longer in length and that allows everyone to win.

[brooklynwx99]

we're getting closer now, and models are beginning to hone in on significant to potentially major snowfall across the mid-Atlantic. we have seen the AI models lead the way with the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF becoming a bit more aggressive. the AIFS and AIGFS have pared back a bit, but they were quite amped to start

regardless, the pattern is favorable for someone to see MECS impacts... we have a very favorable synoptic setup for the MA with strong confluence due to an anomalous 50/50 ULL, a southern stream vort, deep Arctic air in place, and even a potential interaction with the northern stream. right now, the RIC to DC corridor is most favored to see 6"+, but that is certainly possible even into NYC given high ratios and the propensity for these systems to inch north towards game time. it will be important to see if, and where this stream interaction occurs, as it could have drastic impacts on how far north precip eventually gets

good luck, and happy tracking! we will have more in the tank after this regardless

[CAPE]

Latest blend. NWS relies pretty heavily on this product at range when there is still some disparity among guidance. Don't see this often 5 days out.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we will have more in the tank after this regardless

Yep. I just hope we do get a decent hit with this one down here. Once the pattern relaxes we know you guys will get hammered up there while we may get jumped over. Nice seeing the cold wanting to stick around during our prime climo period though. 

[Jebman]

Absolutely so happy to see this in this sub.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Latest blend. NWS relies pretty heavily on this product at range when there is still some disparity among guidance. Don't see this often 5 days out.

No complaints from me...that's great to see so far out

[CAPE]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

No complaints from me...that's great to see so far out

Yeah this wont be the final answer. Hopefully better.

[StormyClearweather]

I have no idea if the MOGREPS (UKMET Ens) is any good, but since I like what it "snows," I'm posting it.
18z vs 12z

[WxUSAF]

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

[aldie 22]

Just now, CAPE said:

Yeah this wont be the final answer. Hopefully better.

These long tracks are exhausting it already feels like we have been tracking this for a month and there is still 5 days to go. It's hard to believe this is the final solution so im with you...let's make it better

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

I said it looks like a part 2 for us up north in light of that northern stream trough.

[CAPE]

I just want a long duration snow event with temps in the mid teens. Strong lift through the DGZ with 15:1 or better ratios. Is that too much to ask? Been awhile.

[MillvilleWx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

The more I look at the 18z euro, the more I REALLY like it. That beast was just getting started. Look at H5 at the end. Long duration high ratio bomb. 
Anyway, on to 0z.

The 7H and 85H moisture track with a weak 85H low reflection still back into eastern TN. I’d say at least another 6-10 hrs looking at 3hr precip panels and progression. Precip still likely back into the Apps with that look.