January 25/26 Jimbo Back Surgery Storm

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Purely focused on radar OBS now kind sir!  Good to know you are here and watching out for us.  I'm looking specifically at the band headed into eastern TN thats getting crushed by these low DPs.  Seems the initial "finger" of moisture that was showing up on a few models doesnt stand a chance.

 

Yeah just looked at Pidgeon Forge Webcam and ain't nothing happening there yet

[AirNelson39]

Euro coming in weaker with CAD

Not surprised. Looking like the NAM is going to take everyone to school on this one.

[msuwx]

10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Purely focused on radar OBS now kind sir!  Good to know you are here and watching out for us.  I'm looking specifically at the band headed into eastern TN thats getting crushed by these low DPs.  Seems the initial "finger" of moisture that was showing up on a few models doesnt stand a chance.

 

Bone dry air for sure

[Met1985]

15 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro coming in weaker with CAD

The cold air is pretty locked in currently looking at all the obs around here.

[IceQueen706]

Point and click on NOAA has lowered our ice totals from .5-.9 to .3-.7.   Still not good.  Hearing around here that it's coming in later/drier?  In Rabun County.  Temp is been steady at 40° since yesterday.  Slight breeze now and then.

[wncsnow]

3 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The cold air is pretty locked in currently looking at all the obs around here.

It has it breaking down quicker tomorrow. Asheville switches over earlier to rain

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It has it breaking down quicker tomorrow. Asheville switches over earlier to rain

I’d expect that. Idk if I’ve ever seen Asheville with bad ice. Not sure it’s even possible there with a stout cad.

[Met1985]

5 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’d expect that. Idk if I’ve ever seen Asheville with bad ice. Not sure it’s even possible there with a stout cad.

It's happened before.  years ago but it's happened. 

[Louise]

14 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It has it breaking down quicker tomorrow. Asheville switches over earlier to rain

Rain that will freeze

[BooneWX]

I do hope yall are right though. I’ll be the first to cheer on 40s and no precip. 

[StantonParkHoya]

Aside from fallen trees breaking lines, you’d think in the year of our lord 2026, the utility companies would have invented a fix for freezing rain on lines.


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[ncjoaquin]

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’d expect that. Idk if I’ve ever seen Asheville with bad ice. Not sure it’s even possible there with a stout cad.

It's not common, for sure. 1996 was the one exception that I can think of. Big ice storm with snow on top. I remember the pines popping and the transformers blowing. 

[Kristospherein]

10 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Aside from fallen trees breaking lines, you’d think in the year of our lord 2026, the utility companies would have invented a fix for freezing rain on lines.


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Duke Energy has over 250K miles of distribution lines. Would you like for your bill to skyrocket because of an event that happens every few decades? 

[RTPGiants]

Just a reminder about Duke's take on their 2002 response:

https://www.wral.com/story/108406/

[Blacksburg Coach]

7 minutes ago, Kristospherein said:

Duke Energy has over 250K miles of distribution lines. Would you like for your bill to skyrocket because of an event that happens every few decades? 

Other than skyrocketing for no reason lol!

[BooneWX]

17 minutes ago, Blacksburg Coach said:

Other than skyrocketing for no reason lol!

As someone in the industry, it’s not for no reason. Thank energy policy this past decade which pre maturely rushed the closure of coal fired power plants. You can’t replace that capacity overnight, it takes significant investment, much more than any company can possibly shell out without passing on. Luckily, electricity is still the best bang for your buck. It fuels almost every aspect of your life daily, for roughly the cost of a value meal. 

[Blue Ridge]

7 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

As someone in the industry, it’s not for no reason. Thank energy policy this past decade which pre maturely rushed the closure of coal fired power plants. You can’t replace that capacity overnight, it takes significant investment, much more than any company can possibly shell out without passing on. Luckily, electricity is still the best bang for your buck. It fuels almost every aspect of your life daily, for roughly the cost of a value meal. 

Can also thank the satanic panic-esque reaction to nuclear decades ago for lack of viable off-ramps from coal usage. 

[neatlburbwthrguy]

Any chance northern Atlanta suburbs get more sleet than freezing rain? 

[USCG RS]

56 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I do hope yall are right though. I’ll be the first to cheer on 40s and no precip. 

Same here. I don't see it. But I'd love to eat a buffet of Crowe on this one

[AirNelson39]

Based on the trajectory of the moisture downstream it’s looking like the NAM and RAP have a pretty good handle on the lack of precip for the triangle. I can’t believe how we went from no shortage of moisture on all the models until 24 hours out and it all vanishes. Incredible really.

[Blue Ridge]

Cliff diving thread is over yonder 

[Regan]

Davidson NC is having sleet. That’s north of CLT at like 2pm. 

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Based on the trajectory of the moisture downstream it’s looking like the NAM and RAP have a pretty good handle on the lack of precip for the triangle. I can’t believe how we went from no shortage of moisture on all the models until 24 hours out and it all vanishes. Incredible really.

Went from over a foot of snow to a crippling ice storm to maybe not much of anything in 5 days. The models really do suck outside 1 or 2 days with winter weather in NC.

[Regan]

5 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Cliff diving thread is over yonder 

Yeah. This isn’t helpful or exactly what’s happening or going to happen. It’s distracting and dismissive on the surface at least. People that don’t know anything about weather lurk here and gets them off their guard. I know people are having feelings right now, but it’s not informational and lurkers don’t know the difference between whining and someone giving professional information. 

[ADB83]

Latest HRRR is similar to previous runs, but these models are mostly sticking to this idea of some sort of freezing rain squall line coming through at least western North Carolina tomorrow evening. It looks weird and not right. Would be interesting to see if it verifies.

[Tyler Penland]

Certainly a dynamic system. Latest D2 brings the marginal risk for severe nearly to Atlanta. 

[USCG RS]

If this is RGEM vs NAM, I would rely on the RGEM. I always have in these set ups, granted I'm originally from up North.

That withstanding, the NAM has consistently been warmer than observations and North with placement of moisture concerning what we have been seeing over towards Texas and the Midwest. 

Could it miss the areas in a warning? Sure. That'd be great. No one wants an ice storm, especially a crippling one. But right now that's the expectation and to say it ain't coming is pure speculation. Because at best it's 50/50 it misses. In reality the chances are much lower than that that we don't take at least a significant hit from this storm. 

[btownheel]

If this is RGEM vs NAM, I would rely on the RGEM. I always have in these set ups, granted I'm originally from up North.
That withstanding, the NAM has consistently been warmer than observations and North with placement of moisture concerning what we have been seeing over towards Texas and the Midwest. 
Could it miss the areas in a warning? Sure. That'd be great. No one wants an ice storm, especially a crippling one. But right now that's the expectation and to say it ain't coming is pure speculation. Because at best it's 50/50 it misses. In reality the chances are much lower than that that we don't take at least a significant hit from this storm. 

NAM’s being decommissioned for a reason, which likely also means it hasn’t been getting resources for a bit.

I’m with you. RGEM and HRRR. NAM can be good with thermals but has lost its edge and LOL at ever posting RAP.


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[DTP]

34 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Can also thank the satanic panic-esque reaction to nuclear decades ago for lack of viable off-ramps from coal usage. 

Couple that with the multi-billion hole in the ground at VC Sumner....my next door neighbor actually had to come in and try to fix that whole mess

Nuke plants take forever to build, but are by far the best option- I am right across the lake from Catawba Nuclear- over 40 yo at this point, and still generates a large percentage of CLT's power needs

Main issue now has to do with data centers- they eat up an enormous supply of power that is enormously disproportionate to Residential usage

Coal-fired in the US got a really bad rap, and the thought process behind decommissioning was ill-conceived at best.  As stated earlier, there was no viable plan for replacing the lost output.

Look at Western Europe if you want to see some really f'd up policy with regards to electrical resources- they didn't just shoot themselves in the foot, they blew their whole leg off....the cognitive dissonance between ideals and actual reality is frankly astounding