cut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What a weekend this will be Snow overperformed here today Bruins go for their 6th consecutive win tonight Going to get maybe several inches of snow tomorrow Pats/Texas Bruins likely acquiring Rasmus Andersson Bring it all baby...wrap me up in the goodies B's getting Andersson? What's the price? First rounder? I'm Rangers fan so my team in complete turmoil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Today’s event may exceed what many of us get here tomorrow lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others: no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools. For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck. This situation is no different. This is the logical and the correct approach. It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet. Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back? I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with. I wouldn't go that far. These are empiric in the sense of being based in historic data and probability. Obviously verification TBD, but through 12z today (with major deterministic models shifting towards AI), I agree with Jerry this is shaping up to be an unambiguous win for AI guidance. I agree a major weakness (see my dedicated thread on the topic) is that reasons for a solution are opaque. We have to reverse engineer how a particular solution is reached. Also mentioned in the dedicated thread, and eager to watch how this unfolds in the next few years: physics-AI hybrids are in development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This is really such a tough forecast, I'm becoming quite optimistic but this could still go either way. Outside of eastern areas really, we're relying heavily on the mid-levels evolving. If they don't really crank...that puts a huge damper moving west across the region into the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Nothing yet here in the 395 valley, 37F and it looks it wants to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, cut said: B's getting Andersson? What's the price? First rounder? I'm Rangers fan so my team in complete turmoil. My guess will be Lohrei 2026 1st Rounder (Boston's not Toronto's) If there is an extension involved then you probably see someone like Lysell added in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Also agree with this I think @CoastalWx posted... now that AI guidance has gotten us here, I'd weigh physics / deterministic and hig-res models to take us the rest of the way. Finer (and physics-based) details like rates and BL temps will be critical for eastern SNE accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My guess will be Lohrei 2026 1st Rounder (Boston's not Toronto's) If there is an extension involved then you probably see someone like Lysell added in If Drury can get his head out of his ass and unload Pan and Mika the Rangers could have a nice first round at the draft - plus they will have their own ping pong ball. Of course my choice would be for someone OTHER THAN DRURY to handle things from here on out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I'd be very happy with 2"-4" Tomorrow. With all the back and forth, getting nothing, getting something, I'd be happy to get this. Also, I think today was an overperformer. It's still snowing fairly hard here in central Connecticut 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'd be very happy with 2"-4" Tomorrow. With all the back and forth, getting nothing, getting something, I'd be happy to get this. Also, I think today was an overperformer. It's still snowing fairly hard here in central Connecticut 100%. Snowy day for us today. We add to it tomorrow as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12 minutes ago, wxsniss said: I wouldn't go that far. These are empiric in the sense of being based in historic data and probability. Obviously verification TBD, but through 12z today (with major deterministic models shifting towards AI), I agree with Jerry this is shaping up to be an unambiguous win for AI guidance. I agree a major weakness (see my dedicated thread on the topic) is that reasons for a solution are opaque. We have to reverse engineer how a particular solution is reached. Also mentioned in the dedicated thread, and eager to watch how this unfolds in the next few years: physics-AI hybrids are in development. Mmm no. That's a black box description. It doesn't describe the gears of the model. You can believe what you like. You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously. Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, cut said: If Drury can get his head out of his ass and unload Pan and Mika the Rangers could have a nice first round at the draft - plus they will have their own ping pong ball. Of course my choice would be for someone OTHER THAN DRURY to handle things from here on out. They are in a tough spot with Panarin because if they end up moving him to a team he prefers, that could cut back the return. If he wants say Florida or Colorado the Rangers would be screwed. Mika will be difficult to move in-season. Curious to see what 18z HRRR has specifically for early morning. I think Scott mentioned this but there is def signal for a band of heavy snow early in the morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, cut said: If Drury can get his head out of his ass and unload Pan and Mika the Rangers could have a nice first round at the draft - plus they will have their own ping pong ball. Of course my choice would be for someone OTHER THAN DRURY to handle things from here on out. You ain't kidding. But Dolan likes who he likes -- results don't matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 it also isn’t over until it’s over. This could easily tick back east at 18z or 00z and you’re right back where you were with a glancing inch or two. Id like to see continued bumps west and continued beefing of the dynamics 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: it also isn’t over until it’s over. This could easily tick back east at 18z or 00z and you’re right back where you were with a glancing inch or two. Id like to see continued bumps west and continued beefing of the dynamics I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. Yeah. I mean that would be a winter canceler after the high we've been on today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: American Skynet keeps ticking.... Keep ticking, Actually could use a tock or two. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. I don’t disagree, but even a small move east and the best stuff is just moving over the cape as opposed to eastern ma. Just something to watch. Unfortunately, minor wobbles in the wrong direction in a system like this could theoretically be the difference between 7-8” or 1-2”. Not a lot of room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t disagree, but even a small move east and the best stuff is just moving over the cape as opposed to eastern ma. Just something to watch. Unfortunately, minor wobbles in the wrong direction in a system like this could theoretically be the difference between 7-8” or 1-2”. Not a lot of room Hopefully 1.5” for you to annoy you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Today’s event may exceed what many of us get here tomorrow lol. ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Hopefully 1.5” for you to annoy you. Wouldn’t surprise me after the last half decade lol. As modeled, this would be the biggest event in 4 years here. Really sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: ASOUT I mean here in ern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Went from nothing to windy and snow/rain mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Warning level mean Boston to pvd is pretty good. Even I won’t downplay that Oh, You'll find a way too. 15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: it also isn’t over until it’s over. This could easily tick back east at 18z or 00z and you’re right back where you were with a glancing inch or two. Id like to see continued bumps west and continued beefing of the dynamics Messenger Shuffle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Oh, You'll find a way too. Messenger Shuffle. Heading up Wednesday morning…they’re in great shape. Picked up 7-8” yesterday. Hope your trip was great Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I mean here in ern areas I know. Just bustin. I think your area will still end up good tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is really such a tough forecast, I'm becoming quite optimistic but this could still go either way. Outside of eastern areas really, we're relying heavily on the mid-levels evolving. If they don't really crank...that puts a huge damper moving west across the region into the interior. IDK, I wouldn't hammer mid level banding too much....looks like it's past us by the time H85 closes, NVM H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others: no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools. For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck. This situation is no different. This is the logical and the correct approach. It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet. Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back? I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with. So just so I understand your thoughts on this topic… You are having difficulty using “AI” based weather models as a forecasting tool, because there isn’t as much published scientific research into how transformer models and training data affect/determine the model output results versus the established research on numerical based models? There have been published papers on this topic over the last few years circulating on the Internet. A lot of it is well over my level of understanding but it’s much more interesting learning about this usage of AI/machine learning than the typical slop being commercialized and promoted to the masses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region You make these forecasts way too complicated. This is not that hard to call. Your area should get 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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