First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[cut]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

What a weekend this will be

Snow overperformed here today

Bruins go for their 6th consecutive win tonight

Going to get maybe several inches of snow tomorrow

Pats/Texas

Bruins likely acquiring Rasmus Andersson 

Bring it all baby...wrap me up in the goodies 

B's getting Andersson? What's the price? First rounder? I'm Rangers fan so my team in complete turmoil.

[CoastalWx]

Today’s event may exceed what many of us get here tomorrow lol. 

[wxsniss]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others:   no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools.   

For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck.  This situation is no different.   

This is the logical and the correct approach. 

It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet.  Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back?   I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. 

Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.   

I wouldn't go that far. These are empiric in the sense of being based in historic data and probability.

Obviously verification TBD, but through 12z today (with major deterministic models shifting towards AI), I agree with Jerry this is shaping up to be an unambiguous win for AI guidance.

I agree a major weakness (see my dedicated thread on the topic) is that reasons for a solution are opaque. We have to reverse engineer how a particular solution is reached.

Also mentioned in the dedicated thread, and eager to watch how this unfolds in the next few years: physics-AI hybrids are in development.

[weatherwiz]

This is really such a tough forecast, I'm becoming quite optimistic but this could still go either way. Outside of eastern areas really, we're relying heavily on the mid-levels evolving. If they don't really crank...that puts a huge damper moving west across the region into the interior. 

[Modfan2]

Nothing yet here in the 395 valley, 37F and it looks it wants to snow

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, cut said:

B's getting Andersson? What's the price? First rounder? I'm Rangers fan so my team in complete turmoil.

My guess will be

Lohrei

2026 1st Rounder (Boston's not Toronto's)

If there is an extension involved then you probably see someone like Lysell added in

[wxsniss]

Also agree with this I think @CoastalWx posted... now that AI guidance has gotten us here, I'd weigh physics / deterministic and hig-res models to take us the rest of the way. Finer (and physics-based) details like rates and BL temps will be critical for eastern SNE accums.

[cut]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

My guess will be

Lohrei

2026 1st Rounder (Boston's not Toronto's)

If there is an extension involved then you probably see someone like Lysell added in

If Drury can get his head out of his ass and unload Pan and Mika the Rangers could have a nice first round at the draft - plus they will have their own ping pong ball. Of course my choice would be for someone OTHER THAN DRURY to handle things from here on out.

[Snowcrazed71]

I'd be very happy with 2"-4" Tomorrow. With all the back and forth, getting nothing, getting something, I'd be happy to get this. Also, I think today was an overperformer. It's still snowing fairly hard here in central Connecticut

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'd be very happy with 2"-4" Tomorrow. With all the back and forth, getting nothing, getting something, I'd be happy to get this. Also, I think today was an overperformer. It's still snowing fairly hard here in central Connecticut

100%.  Snowy day for us today. We add to it tomorrow as well. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I wouldn't go that far. These are empiric in the sense of being based in historic data and probability.

Obviously verification TBD, but through 12z today (with major deterministic models shifting towards AI), I agree with Jerry this is shaping up to be an unambiguous win for AI guidance.

I agree a major weakness (see my dedicated thread on the topic) is that reasons for a solution are opaque. We have to reverse engineer how a particular solution is reached.

Also mentioned in the dedicated thread, and eager to watch how this unfolds in the next few years: physics-AI hybrids are in development.

Mmm no. That's a black box description.  It doesn't describe the gears of the model. 

You can believe what you like.   You are fundamentally wrong about the bold unless the exact "math" of the model machinery is describe, unambiguously.   Stats and history don't describe the systems that produced them, btw - you're making my point.    

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, cut said:

If Drury can get his head out of his ass and unload Pan and Mika the Rangers could have a nice first round at the draft - plus they will have their own ping pong ball. Of course my choice would be for someone OTHER THAN DRURY to handle things from here on out.

They are in a tough spot with Panarin because if they end up moving him to a team he prefers, that could cut back the return. If he wants say Florida or Colorado the Rangers would be screwed. Mika will be difficult to move in-season. 

Curious to see what 18z HRRR has specifically for early morning. I think Scott mentioned this but there is def signal for a band of heavy snow early in the morning

[RDRY]

4 minutes ago, cut said:

If Drury can get his head out of his ass and unload Pan and Mika the Rangers could have a nice first round at the draft - plus they will have their own ping pong ball. Of course my choice would be for someone OTHER THAN DRURY to handle things from here on out.

You ain't kidding. But Dolan likes who he likes -- results don't matter.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

it also isn’t over until it’s over. This could easily tick back east at 18z or 00z and you’re right back where you were with a glancing inch or two.

Id like to see continued bumps west and continued beefing of the dynamics 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

it also isn’t over until it’s over. This could easily tick back east at 18z or 00z and you’re right back where you were with a glancing inch or two.

Id like to see continued bumps west and continued beefing of the dynamics 

I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. 

Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. 

Yeah. I mean that would be a winter canceler after the high we've been on today. 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

American Skynet keeps ticking....

Keep ticking, Actually could use a tock or two.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think I’d be surprised if it moves significantly east. Could be some slight ticks either way. 

I don’t disagree, but even a small move east and the best stuff is just moving over the cape as opposed to eastern ma. Just something to watch.

Unfortunately, minor wobbles in the wrong direction in a system like this could theoretically be the difference between 7-8” or 1-2”. Not a lot of room

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I don’t disagree, but even a small move east and the best stuff is just moving over the cape as opposed to eastern ma. Just something to watch.

Unfortunately, minor wobbles in the wrong direction in a system like this could theoretically be the difference between 7-8” or 1-2”. Not a lot of room

Hopefully 1.5” for you to annoy you.

[HoarfrostHubb]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Today’s event may exceed what many of us get here tomorrow lol. 

ASOUT

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully 1.5” for you to annoy you.

Wouldn’t surprise me after the last half decade lol.

As modeled, this would be the biggest event in 4 years here. Really sad 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

ASOUT

I mean here in ern areas 

[Modfan2]

Went from nothing to windy and snow/rain mix

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Warning level mean Boston to pvd is pretty good. Even I won’t downplay that 

Oh, You'll find a way too.

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

it also isn’t over until it’s over. This could easily tick back east at 18z or 00z and you’re right back where you were with a glancing inch or two.

Id like to see continued bumps west and continued beefing of the dynamics 

Messenger Shuffle.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Oh, You'll find a way too.

Messenger Shuffle.

Heading up Wednesday morning…they’re in great shape. Picked up 7-8” yesterday.  Hope your trip was great Jeff. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean here in ern areas 

I know.  Just bustin.   I think your area will still end up good tomorrow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is really such a tough forecast, I'm becoming quite optimistic but this could still go either way. Outside of eastern areas really, we're relying heavily on the mid-levels evolving. If they don't really crank...that puts a huge damper moving west across the region into the interior. 

IDK, I wouldn't hammer mid level banding too much....looks like it's past us by the time H85 closes, NVM H7.

[bristolri_wx]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... for starters, I gave you plenty - and so did others:   no one can (apparently) define the discrete processes in the construct of these tools.   

For all we know, if they ever succeed(fail) it may just be dumb fuck luck.  This situation is no different.   

This is the logical and the correct approach. 

It certainly may come off as a trophy wave time - firstly, nothing's happened yet.  Secondly, even these tools wavered E at one time or the other over the last 30 hour's worth of cycles. So they are back?   I can tell you meteorologically why these runs are coming back, without using "blind" model methods - which they are ... until such time as these organization(s) et all put out knowledge-based tell-out educational prospecti about the math and philosophies of these instruments. 

Until that happens, you'll get burned one day, eventually ... if you don't know what it is you are dealing with.   

So just so I understand your thoughts on this topic…

You are having difficulty using “AI” based weather models as a forecasting tool, because there isn’t as much published scientific research into how transformer models and training data affect/determine the model output results versus the established research on numerical based models?

There have been published papers on this topic over the last few years circulating on the Internet. A lot of it is well over my level of understanding but it’s much more interesting learning about this usage of AI/machine learning than the typical slop being commercialized and promoted to the masses.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Agreed, I don't think we see anything significant, anything will be slight ticks. I do agree with him though about beefing up the dynamics, that is going to be important IMO, especially farther west into the region 

You make these forecasts way too complicated. This is not that hard to call. Your area should get 3-6