First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[HoarfrostHubb]

Remember Ray’s maps from a few years ago with random arrows pointing here and there?     His have gotten much better. 
 

Sam’s were always the best though. Saggy. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

I feel for you guys out east, the snow today around here has taken the edge off, tomorrow is just gravy.  I pray for a widespread 4"+ for everyone .. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I feel for you guys out east, the snow today around here has taken the edge off, tomorrow is just gravy.  I pray for a widespread 4"+ for everyone .. 

18z hasn’t been kind.

Sucks to see everyone out west get snow and we’re skunked again.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Remember Ray’s maps from a few years ago with random arrows pointing here and there?     His have gotten much better. 
 

Sam’s were always the best though. Saggy. 

Lol .. those arrows going all different directions were something else . No one had any idea what they were showing (no offense Ray). That cracks me up 

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Remember Ray’s maps from a few years ago with random arrows pointing here and there?     His have gotten much better. 
 

Sam’s were always the best though. Saggy. 

One of his boobs would always be drooped over your head though.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I feel for you guys out east, the snow today around here has taken the edge off, tomorrow is just gravy.  I pray for a widespread 4"+ for everyone .. 

I wouldn’t say 4-8” is gravy tomorrow 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

16 minutes ago, Masswx said:

Probably 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t say 4-8” is gravy tomorrow 

Did you look at 18z?

[moneypitmike]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t say 4-8” is gravy tomorrow 

I think any 6" reports will be few and far between

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Did you look at 18z?

No why would anyone be looking at 18z op runs 10 hours before it starts snowing ?This is pretty much a done deal . Enjoy the snow 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t say 4-8” is gravy tomorrow 

Yeah, I agree. I don’t see a lot of models arguing for that.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah, I agree. I don’t see a lot of models arguing for that.

According to Tswallowoozieblizz everyone is snowless 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I wouldn’t say 4-8” is gravy tomorrow 

I’m saying not for everyone just for those that did well today.  

[SouthCoastMA]

Tensions rising, fights imminent

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Tensions rising, fights imminent

Just sitting here smiling . Would like to see 00z revert back to take everyone off edge. Going to watch some NFL playoffs and enjoy 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just sitting here smiling . Would like to see 00z revert back to take everyone off edge. Going to watch some NFL playoffs and enjoy 

I think that's what'll happen. 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If I know how you roll you’ll go 3-6”

Good call. Just not enough confidence in widespread 4-8. Good luck out there tomorrow. 

[ORH_wxman]

I’m actually liking my spot tomorrow. Far enough inland with a little elevation to avoid major temp issues, but far enough east to hopefully get some good bands even on an 18z scenario. 
 

I still think SE MA is going to rip for a while. Might have to wait until 00z for the real goods but they should arrive. I think the midday/PM stuff could be kind of banded/spotty…if it isn’t, that’s a positive sign. 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Just sitting here smiling . Would like to see 00z revert back to take everyone off edge. Going to watch some NFL playoffs and enjoy 

1/18-19 was gravy, right?  

AI euro/gfs both look very good still in the LR

[Damage In Tolland]

Latest RRFS looks good 

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m actually liking my spot tomorrow. Far enough inland with a little elevation to avoid major temp issues, but far enough east to hopefully get some good bands even on an 18z scenario. 
 

I still think SE MA is going to rip for a while. Might have to wait until 00z for the real goods but they should arrive. I think the midday/PM stuff could be kind of banded/spotty…if it isn’t, that’s a positive sign. 

Unfortunately I think you're right.

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Latest RRFS looks good 

What time does it start in your neck of the woods? Unfortunately I'm going to be down there tomorrow.

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What time does it start in your neck of the woods? Unfortunately I'm going to be down there tomorrow.

Looks like 6- 8 AM

[EastonSN+]

Not liking EURO being east.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hope for a bump back at 00z. Otherwise it’s mediocre city 

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that really moves my mojo

You mean that wasn’t a damn good light rain we got today?

[SouthCoastMA]

Finally looked at 18z Euro. Didn't actually look east, just weaker, so the precip kinda cut back on nw side. we need to do better than a 1000 or 1002mb low

[Sey-Mour Snow]

First 00z model with the improvements you want to see.. much better at 500. Should pound especially out east. Looks like my initial morning band is fading, but the evening snow looks healthy. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, wxsniss said:

Relax man, this feels a bit like amplifying a disagreement out of thin air... (a strength of this forum is the enrichment of ENTPs?)

Preponderance of legacy physics models Wed-Friday last week had Jan 18 a graze or completely out to sea vs. AI guidance almost invariably had a substantial advisory-warning hit across the southeast and more. The move of legacy models towards the AI guidance at 12z today suggested AI guidance could be correct, obviously with verification TBD.

You're reiterating the point I made multiple times: a major weakness of AI guidance is that how a solution is achieved is opaque, and we can't point to a physics-based mechanism for why they are consistent or change.

In any case, this field is at least something kind of evolving and cool to distract us from the latest of a series of disappointing winters.

I haven't looked at guidance since 12z, but my current take for Sunday: generally 2-4" eastern SN, spots 3-6" on south shore and Cape, 2-3" around Worcester area and less further west

Hoping at least for some Foxboro snow mojo of yore...

“Relax man“?

- you do succeed at one thing,  dissuading me from even wanting to read that thing 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

First 00z model with the improvements you want to see.. much better at 500. Should pound especially out east. Looks like my initial morning band is fading, but the evening snow looks healthy. 

Which one is this? I do think we need the morning as insurance against the precip shield.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Which one is this? I do think we need the morning as insurance against the precip shield.

Hrrr, it’s predominantly evening but it’s a good thump , would be colder too.