Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z Ukie with the nasty gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: People need to realize that the NWS is updating their maps on the fly. It may take them 6-8hrs to digest modeling and update appropriately. I saw no issues with that graphic earlier this AM. They issue those based upon level of confidence. Got a peak at the rest of 12z guidance, save for Ukie and Euro sweets. Some beefy solutions in them. Looks like the 12a GFS op and 12z GEFS are now on the eastern edge of guidance. Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps and then creating a forecast 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 My guess is they go advisory for most and maybe WSW for interior SE MA. Just a guess. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: yea were going 4-8 most of state, 2-4 NW 1/3rd, that was the consensus between me and @Sey-Mour Snow working on graphics now FWIW the GEFS cut back/a bit further east from 6z. However at this range have seen the ensembles not be reflected in the next run (i.e. 18z GFS could be west). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Also, almost looks like there are two parts to tomorrow. As some have said, they’ll be a fronto finger of snow probably moving in, but I think it will be in a narrow zone. Tough to say exactly where, but that could add 1-2” before the main stuff falls. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a lull in most spots before the main stuff fills in during the aftn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, EastonSN+ said: FWIW the GEFS cut back/a bit further east from 6z. However at this range have seen the ensembles not be reflected in the next run (i.e. 18z GFS could be west). Kind of time to pass the baton to the deterministic models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 But yeah they did shift east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Also, almost looks like there are two parts to tomorrow. As some have said, they’ll be a fronto finger of snow probably moving in, but I think it will be in a narrow zone. Tough to say exactly where, but that could add 1-2” before the main stuff falls. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a lull in most spots before the main stuff fills in during the aftn. Just in time for the game. Gonna have a couple winter weather games this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z Ukie with the nasty gradient. Woof. Imagine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 What is the confidence interval for a winter storm warning? I don’t think we’ve crossed that threshold. I think we see winter weather advisories for most. Maybe if 18z ticks better you see WSW for Boston PVD and SE. I kind of agree with Scott’s assessment that at this time, I’d be surprised at 6” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Woof. Imagine I'm about .7" there.....not sure how much of it will be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I’ve been trying to get a good reason to toss the AIs and no one could give anything logical. All hale the Skynets! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro Aai tick west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, CoastalWx said: Euro Aai tick west Same with Euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Same with Euro Yeah euro too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 That’s a big hit for SE Ma on euro. Even up into BOS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah euro too Looks like the heavier banding would even get back to the CT River? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z Ukie with the nasty gradient. Gotta love the .1 over Rainthuen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 12z euro just for tomorrows storm 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We take that. Let’s keep ticking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That’s a big hit for SE Ma on euro. Even up into BOS. How much do you think we lose because of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 GFS now outlier. solid Euro uptick. we take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The texans should enjoy tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, dryslot said: The texans should enjoy tomorrow. I almost don’t want it to be too snowy though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, moneypitmike said: How much do you think we lose because of rain? Might lose a couple tenths of QPF down near buzzards bay. But if euro is right you’d still be near warning criteria despite that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, CoastalWx said: I almost don’t want it to be too snowy though. I know, I'd rather it not be as well, It does help the offense though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 That’s pretty good poundtown near BOS down through south shore tomorrow evening and early overnight hours on the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We’re in business now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 .8 here, losing .3 to liquid would still be solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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