First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z Ukie with the nasty gradient.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

People need to realize that the NWS is updating their maps on the fly. It may take them 6-8hrs to digest modeling and update appropriately. I saw no issues with that graphic earlier this AM. They issue those based upon level of confidence.

Got a peak at the rest of 12z guidance, save for Ukie and Euro sweets. Some beefy solutions in them. Looks like the 12a GFS op and 12z GEFS are now on the eastern edge of guidance.

Yes, I think some need to realize that forecasting is more than just taking 8 seconds to look at QPF/snow maps  and then creating a forecast

[CoastalWx]

My guess is they go advisory for most and maybe WSW for interior SE MA. Just a guess. 

[EastonSN+]

32 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

yea were going 4-8 most of state, 2-4 NW 1/3rd, that was the consensus between me and @Sey-Mour Snow working on graphics now

FWIW the GEFS cut back/a bit further east from 6z. However at this range have seen the ensembles not be reflected in the next run (i.e. 18z GFS could be west).

[CoastalWx]

Also, almost looks like there are two parts to tomorrow. As some have said, they’ll be a fronto finger of snow probably moving in, but I think it will be in a narrow zone. Tough to say exactly where, but that could add 1-2” before the main stuff falls. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a lull in most spots before the main stuff fills in during the aftn. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW the GEFS cut back/a bit further east from 6z. However at this range have seen the ensembles not be reflected in the next run (i.e. 18z GFS could be west).

Kind of time to pass the baton to the deterministic models.

[CoastalWx]

But yeah they did shift east

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Also, almost looks like there are two parts to tomorrow. As some have said, they’ll be a fronto finger of snow probably moving in, but I think it will be in a narrow zone. Tough to say exactly where, but that could add 1-2” before the main stuff falls. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a lull in most spots before the main stuff fills in during the aftn. 

Just in time for the game. Gonna have a couple winter weather games this weekend.

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

26 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z Ukie with the nasty gradient.

Woof. Imagine 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

What is the confidence interval for a winter storm warning?

I don’t think we’ve crossed that threshold. I think we see winter weather advisories for most. Maybe if 18z ticks better you see WSW for Boston PVD and SE.

I kind of agree with Scott’s assessment that at this time, I’d be surprised at 6”

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Woof. Imagine 

I'm about .7" there.....not sure how much of it will be rain.

[weathafella]

I’ve been trying to get a good reason to toss the AIs and no one could give anything logical.  All hale the Skynets!

[CoastalWx]

Euro Aai tick west 

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro Aai tick west 

Same with Euro

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same with Euro

Yeah euro too

[ORH_wxman]

That’s a big hit for SE Ma on euro. Even up into BOS. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah euro too

Looks like the heavier banding would even get back to the CT River? 

[Great Snow 1717]

38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z Ukie with the nasty gradient.

Gotta love the .1 over Rainthuen lol

[ORH_wxman]

12z euro just for tomorrows storm

[CoastalWx]

We take that. Let’s keep ticking 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a big hit for SE Ma on euro. Even up into BOS. 

How much do you think we lose because of rain?

[Baroclinic Zone]

GFS now outlier.

solid Euro uptick.

we take

[dryslot]

The texans should enjoy tomorrow.

[weatherwiz]

You actually have to wonder if the heaviest banding may actually occur right over the CT River lmao. This could be a setup where its displaced more northwest than what models indicate 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

The texans should enjoy tomorrow.

I almost don’t want it to be too snowy though.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

How much do you think we lose because of rain?

Might lose a couple tenths of QPF down near buzzards bay. But if euro is right you’d still be near warning criteria despite that. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I almost don’t want it to be too snowy though.

I know, I'd rather it not be as well, It does help the offense though.

[ORH_wxman]

That’s pretty good poundtown near BOS down through south shore tomorrow evening and early overnight hours on the euro. 

[WxWatcher007]

We’re in business now.

[SouthCoastMA]

.8 here, losing .3 to liquid would still be solid.