First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[40/70 Benchmark]

General 4-7" on the GEM.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What do you mean by NY state?

I think he means to the boarder..? 

[WxWatcher007]

Meanwhile the AI has been more consistent (GFS AI also starting at 18z yesterday) 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

What do you mean by NY state?

Like ALB area ish 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I think he beans to the boarder..? 

You just never know how out of control he will get with his weenie when it gets excited.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Meanwhile the AI has been more consistent (GFS AI also starting at 18z yesterday) 

Can’t argue that…thing led the way. Nice look. 

[CoastalWx]

Ray hoping we all get 1-2”. Classic.

[tavwtby]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Like ALB area ish 

that area around the Hudson always gets some good upslope wringing out, as do the berks

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You just never know how out of control he will get with his weenie when it gets excited.

Lol…ok I was wrong too. He said Albany. 

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Like ALB area ish 

lol...good luck with that

[jbenedet]

Filtered sun and 34 here currently…

 

Interesting…

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

lol...good luck with that

So you’re thinking no snow in ALB? Ok then 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you’re thinking no snow in ALB? Ok then 

Not doing your mental gymnastics. I'm not ruling out a little snow for ALB. You said mid level banding implying it would be more substantial.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Not doing your mental gymnastics. I'm not ruling out a little snow for ALB. You said mid level banding implying it would be more substantial.

Thats what I think will occur friend 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray hoping we all get 1-2”. Classic.

Nah, 3-5"....but all set with 10" on the s shore, 3" here and 6" in MHT.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, 3-5"....but all set with 10" on the s shore, 3" here and 6" in MHT.

On the 6z GFS, did you account for some of that precip to your northwest from today? I don’t really see this as a set up to have major bones zones.

[The 4 Seasons]

27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6 River west and 4-8 River East 

yea were going 4-8 most of state, 2-4 NW 1/3rd, that was the consensus between me and @Sey-Mour Snow working on graphics now

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

yea were going 4-8 most of state, 2-4 NW 1/3rd, that was the consensus between me and @Sey-Mour Snow working on graphics now

Game is on boys 

[DJln491]

NWS shrugging it's shoulders

 

 

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

And that includes anything else from today.    

[DomNH]

2 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

NWS shrugging it's shoulders

 

 

 

I actually think it's a pretty fair map. N and W gets in on today's snow and the SE areas get in on tomorrow's snow. There will probably be a relative shaft zone in between. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And that includes anything else from today.    

That will change if the 12z suite finishes up strong. 

[SouthCoastMA]

After looking at everything from 12z,thinking this will end up being an advisory most places. 2-5" across the board. maybe someone scores a 6er somewhere. Open to being pleasantly surprised though 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

NWS shrugging it's shoulders

 

 

 

prob waiting to digest full 12z suite and coordinate with other offices on WSWs (WSW is watch/warning/adv) before making wholesale changes. that would be my guess. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

prob waiting to digest full 12z suite and coordinate with other offices on WSWs (WSW is watch/warning/adv) before making wholesale changes. that would be my guess. 

Really only get one shot at this given how close we are to onset. Folks won’t pay attention to numerous evolving maps imo. Makes sense to take the time to get it right. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

People need to realize that the NWS is updating their maps on the fly. It may take them 6-8hrs to digest modeling and update appropriately. I saw no issues with that graphic earlier this AM. They issue those based upon level of confidence.

Got a peak at the rest of 12z guidance, save for Ukie and Euro sweets. Some beefy solutions in them. Looks like the 12a GFS op and 12z GEFS are now on the eastern edge of guidance.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Really only get one shot at this given how close we are to onset. Folks won’t pay attention to numerous evolving maps imo. Makes sense to take the time to get it right. 

Most of the public out this way don’t even know there could be snowstorm tomorrow here…so you’re spot on. 

[Modfan2]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

And that includes anything else from today.    

We have dry ground in the 395 corridor in E CT, always can adjust up!

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

After looking at everything from 12z,thinking this will end up being an advisory most places. 2-5" across the board. maybe someone scores a 6er somewhere. Open to being pleasantly surprised though 

Yeah not a bad first guess. Not including today, I think anybody over 6 is in a narrow zone. 

[dryslot]

Just started looking now that i'm home but the 12z GFS looked like it regressed a tic or so.