First Legit Storm Potential of the Season Upon Us

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

18Z AIGFS actually looks slightly better than 12z

well that's a win

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah GFS Skynet still trending better a bit. 
 

OP looks a bit less amped than 12z but still prob gonna be a hit. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

gfs gonna be big

[ineedsnow]

Gfs going to be good.unless it chases that convection off the coast

[MJO812]

Gfs way weaker

[ORH_wxman]

Def less dynamic looking than 12z though. But should still be a good hit. 

[ORH_wxman]

You hope maybe we trend into a compromise of sorts and get at least something half-decent out of this. The 12z blizzard was a pipe dream given it had zero support. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks great for eastern (esp SE) Mass.  Much less exciting west of 495 and into NH/ME.

[codfishsnowman]

The point  and click seemed kind of tame with modest rain and snow chances and Southerly winds so I figured there wasn't much going on.

[The 4 Seasons]

20 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

well that's a win

slight bump NW

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You hope maybe we trend into a compromise of sorts and get at least something half-decent out of this. The 12z blizzard was a pipe dream given it had zero support. 

Besides a few GEFS members, no. AIGEFS also had a few members with bigs hits, but thats about it

I'm fine with that run it actually didnt move east at all really, just weaker dynamics and didn't explode like 12Z

Still 4-8 across most of CT/MA

 

[dryslot]

18Z  GFS is a much tamer version of the 12z run

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Advisory event on the gfs for Eastern areas. Mega step back, as many expected. Now does that continue or do others come west 

[The 4 Seasons]

This is still the one to watch for a poss moderate-low end warning event region wide.

Maybe we can grab an inch or two on Saturday but the potential ceiling for that is extremely low. And sfc temps are very borderline in areas along the shore. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

This is still the one to watch for a poss moderate-low end warning event region wide.

Maybe we can grab an inch or two on Saturday but the potential ceiling for that is extremely low. And sfc temps are very borderline in areas along the shore. 

Agree. Would like to see the 18z Euro and especially EPS step in the right direction.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah nice bump NW on GFS AI Interesting 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah nice bump NW on GFS. Interesting 

AI GFS bumped NW…OP did not. 

[radarman]

2-4" for this area east ORH even before whatever comes up the coast.

Nice arrival time for the coastal too, right around or before kickoff.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

2-4" for this area east ORH even before whatever comes up the coast.

Nice arrival time for the coastal too, right around or before kickoff.

We’ll grab some paste prior to possible powder 

[Typhoon Tip]

A reason I think you'll have a better chance with this thread, Ray ...is the error trends as of late considering all guidance.  If that correction recurs, we're in business on this one.  

This event tomorrow into Friday morning, upstate NY up the ST L S was actually the original system that even the Euro was impressive for several ( not a couple  ) cycles about 4 or so days ago...  The Euro did not really do terribly better than the GFS - I don't know if folks are aware that the system in U NY is in fact the 15/16 cyclone space. 

Anyway, all these guidance were not wrong about the storm 'existing' - as we discussed earlier.  The recognition of the pattern amplitude by many of us was actually spot on. Where the system takes place is the devil in this case, but ... it was actually en masse a reposition to the current strike region as outline above. 

It seems that's been a leitmotif this season from my recall where systems have been correcting west.  While certainly true that we must consider every situation uniquely, there's certainly also wisdom in noticing whether the circumstances have changed appreciably so - if not... it's reasonable to assume that this Euro track will correct west in time.  

Having said all that ...  we still are dealing with wave harmonics issues in lacking. The neg interference in the general circulation circumstance is only allowing narrow windows for amplitude at the cyclone/S/W scales.  But as this one today up N of ALB is showing, they're still occurring nonetheless.  

We have a shot in this case...

[weathafella]

6-12 en route for Brett who will post a picture of him snow blowing with the cub cadet.

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Advisory event on the gfs for Eastern areas. Mega step back, as many expected. Now does that continue or do others come west 

Actually more like a lower end warning event verbatim.  It actually was not THAT different vs 12z in terms of dynamics leading in.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

6-12 en route for Brett who will post a picture of him snow blowing with the cub cadet.

Thumbs up in his green fluorescent DPW jacket.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

AI GFS bumped NW…OP did not. 

Gefs also bumped NW

[CarverWX]

For my sanity and everyone else's I hope this is not a GFS wild goose chase.

[Typhoon Tip]

the AIGFS did not actually adjust NW from what I'm seeing.  It was just a little stronger in the cyclonic envelope and by virtue of that slight increase ... expanded by a small margin around all quadrants.  This may have given the allusion to a NW adjustment.  

I guess tho that's kind of quibbling ...  I mean, if it ended up at 978 mb, it will have expanded it's impact radius that much more and I don't think it really matters sensibly - if you're in, you're in

[dendrite]

Hopefully this pans out and it’s puking in Foxboro between 3 and 6pm.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, dendrite said:

Hopefully this pans out and it’s puking in Foxboro between 3 and 6pm.

Yeah, wind and snow for a dome team like Houston...

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw, the GEFs has bodily moved west, by several grid points actually.  Even has a fair number of middling depth members straddling the BM.

12z left, 18 right

Probably should also add... sense of this is a middle ranged cyclone ... a correcting west track has possibility, but the sub 980 idea of the GFS probably doesn't pass the middle range amplitude dimming aspect.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

6-12 en route for Brett who will post a picture of him snow blowing with the cub cadet.

 

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thumbs up in his green fluorescent DPW jacket.

If I get 6-12 I’ll snow low in flip flops and tank top. Book it

[Hailstoned]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

 This thread is one of the best and it’s only a few hours old.  

What? Someone thinking he's clever throwing F-Bombs is entertaining?