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January 16-19th: Rolling the dice


SnowenOutThere
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I think the snow talk is referring to Saturday. Yes that's the best snow threat at this juncture. So far 18z is worse for the Sun/Mon coastal threat.

You don't want shortwave troffing (concave up) northeast of the vortmax at the base of the trof. That's a recipe for a late trof evolution and OTS solution. The 12z ECMWF moved a vorticity-laden shortwave through OH and NY early Sunday, which ruined the coastal threat. The 18z NAM/ICON increased troffing (concave up) in this area. By comparison, the 12z GFS had subtle shortwave ridging (concave down) over NYS.

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  • WxUSAF changed the title to January 16-19th: Rolling the dice

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