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New Years Day 2026 - 1st snows of the new year possible


Baroclinic Zone
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Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas. 

 I think the ULL trough ended up just a bit deeper in the end allowing southern areas to tap into a bit more moisture. Nice event overall. Glad it panned out.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob been since 1/28/10 since we had overperforming squalls this good down in SNE. That event was better in western and central areas whereas the squalls this time overperformed in east and southeast areas. 

Your memory is impeccable, especially for smaller events and their dates. Of course that was just before the mid-Atlantic went full Day After Tomorrow.

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Your memory is impeccable, especially for smaller events and their dates. Of course that was just before the mid-Atlantic went full Day After Tomorrow.

That WINDEX event actually ended up being our demise in many ways over the next 7-10 days. It kept the 1/30/10 system well south of us (that was the one that looked like a big NC/S VA hit but trended into a big N VA/MD hit. Fluff bomb.)
 

Then the vortex from that WINDEX event just spun to our northeast with the huge block in place and kept 2/5-6/10 south of us. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

That WINDEX event actually ended up being our demise in many ways over the next 7-10 days. It kept the 1/30/10 system well south of us (that was the one that looked like a big NC/S VA hit but trended into a big N VA/MD hit. Fluff bomb.)
 

Then the vortex from that WINDEX event just spun to our northeast with the huge block in place and kept 2/5-6/10 south of us. 

I often wondered if the overall setup/blocking of early Feb 2010 would've normally screwed SNE as badly as it did, or if it was just bad luck.

Like if that exact setup happened again, with the same teleconnections and strength and position of the block, but without that squall event or some other rogue feature creating extra confluence, I imagine SNE would've done pretty well and gotten at least a MECS.

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