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December 28th - 29th Blizzard


Powerball
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MSP radar doesn't look too good to me.  Hope it fills in and enhances in short order.

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. It’s snowing pretty hard despite what the radar is showing. Models always showed a less intense but consistent and prolonged moderate snowband pivoting over central Minnesota which is where the majority of our accumulation is supposed to come from. The initial heavy band was never supposed to last long or add up to much. Radar looks about what I would expect.


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DTX

Frontal passage around or just after midnight, as deepening surface
low tracks into Lake Huron tonight. Strong high res model consensus
(RAP/3k NAM/ARW/ARW2/HRRR/Euro) with the low deepening to around 975
MB by Monday morning near Georgian Bay. With at least 55-60 knots of
flow at the 850 MB level, confidence is high in occasional wind
gusts of 45-55 MPH throughout Monday, with a surface trough passage
around mid day also likely providing a focus. Steepening low level
lapse rates and inversion heights aoa 7 kft, along with much of the
cloud depth/minimal cape in the dgz will be conducive to snow
showers/squalls, and isolated wind gusts to 60 MPH seem likely in the
convective rolls. With the soaked ground from today`s rainfall,
weakened tree limbs from the ice storm, and long duration of strong
wind gusts tonight through early tomorrow evening, have elected to go
with high wind warning for all of southeast Michigan. Expecting to
see a significant number of power outages. 6z Euro ensemble meteograms
indicating close to the half members supporting 55-60 MPH peak wind
gusts as well.

The strong winds and snow squalls will make for tough travel
conditions on Monday, despite just an inch or two of snow
accumulation as 700 MB cold pool (-20 C)/trough axis tracks through.
Any leftover standing water will also freeze for the Monday morning
commute as temps fall into the upper 20s.

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