overcautionisbad Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 6 minutes ago, bncho said: Upgraded CMC is good I would like to order this please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville). Awful 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, anotherman said: Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville). Awful How long have these apps been out? Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: He’s probably right, but also is a weenie. His post for the last storm were unbearable. They’re all long shots. That’s why they don’t happen often lol. But that’s the fun of it! 27 minutes ago, Nomz said: Here's AIFS verbatim. Probably add 50% to the totals to account for extremely good ratios. If you just look at the 144 panel of ai euro you’d be pumped. does anyone have the google ensemble for 12z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Apple Weather has over a foot of snow for DC next weekend lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Apple Weather has over a foot of snow for DC next weekend lol Time to do the song and dance again! TWC and Crappuweather must pay Apple to make mets look bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I might need to switch from Android to Apple their weather app always gives weenie snow totals. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Cmc para is a hit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 5 minutes ago, anotherman said: Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville). Awful This is getting out of hand. I pulled this from the native Apple Wx App. Note the snowfall amounts. Like come on now. 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 This is getting out of hand. I pulled this from the native Apple Wx App. Note the snowfall amounts. Like come on now.People just believe it too. My friend called it a “forecast.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 13 minutes ago, EHoffman said: Apple Weather has over a foot of snow for DC next weekend lol Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 I might need to switch from Android to Apple their weather app always gives weenie snow totals. National blend of weenies model! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong. This is correct. Can’t tell ya how I know (some of you in here may know what I do for a living) What I can tell you is it’s something that’s being worked on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, jayyy said: This is correct. Can’t tell ya how I know (some of you in here may know what I do for a living) What I can tell you is it’s something that’s being worked on. They could save money and processing power and just ask Bastardi how much snow. Would probably actually be more conservative in totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered. Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula. Hey Bob! Good to here from you. I always admire your common sense knowledge. You're guidance is well taken. 2 questions It seems that the Euro deterministic has a difficult time differentiating between sleet and freezing rain. There was a large swath of significant freezing rain southwest/northeast across western Va.. I posted Sunday morning that I didn't buy this because 925 temperatures were too cold. In fact, freezing rain was minimal. Thoughts? Last, the AI ens. doubled the received amount of snow on December 8. It nearly tripled the amount received for Augusta County last weekend. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, jayyy said: This is correct. Can’t tell ya how I know (some of you in here may know what I do for a living) What I can tell you is it’s something that’s being worked on. Apologize if this is stupid, but what's stopping them from just verbatim copying the GFS? AFAIK its public domain and, even if bad practice forecasting wise, would be leaps and bounds better than whatever they're doing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Apologize if this is stupid, but what's stopping them from just verbatim copying the GFS? AFAIK its public domain and, even if bad practice forecasting wise, would be leaps and bounds better than whatever they're doing right now.I think that’s what weather underground/WeatherBug do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdevil02 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 27 minutes ago, anotherman said: Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville). Awful Just looked at my phone, apparently I'm getting 12.46 inches of snow on Saturday. Good to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 A couple things are adding to the low predictability of this setup. 1. For every mile THE PV retrogrades west thats a mile it has to come back east. It ends up taking much longer for the troff axis to move through. The opposite is true if it retrogrades less. 2. Every bit of vorticity that consolidates with the western lobe also leaves less vorticity for the eastern lobe, we get weaker confluence plus a stronger troff. Opposite is true if it splits further east Combine all this and we will probably be getting windshield wiper runs for a couple of days. We don't usually get snow from setups where the 50/50 low is this far south, so its not gonna be easy to get a favorable track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Apologize if this is stupid, but what's stopping them from just verbatim copying the GFS? AFAIK its public domain and, even if bad practice forecasting wise, would be leaps and bounds better than whatever they're doing right now.There’s nothing preventing them tbh. I submitted an internal app feedback form to our engineering team to fix that shit asap 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 FWIW the SPC WPC introduced two areas of heavy snow associated with the potential nor'easter. edit: WPC not SPC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, Nomz said: FWIW the SPC introduced two areas of heavy snow associated with the potential nor'easter. Norfolk and Boston... We know what that reminds us of 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 BTW everyone is praising the AIFS and it did do really well but it was southeast at day 5-6 also juts not by as much adjust what it shows now the same way this adjusted and we’re good 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 15 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong. They showed that Cvill got 22 inches of snow during Sunday. They literally lie about the past and future. I assumed it was just some random model output combination but I'm convinced it just randomly picks the highest possible output and runs with it. Even then I have no idea how it got a short term forecast so wrong when any model had half its amount. Maybe we as a forum should write them an email? Genuinely someone should do something about this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 This is what it ended up actually looking like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Adjust the AIFS exactly the same way and…well 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Wonder how these new models released today check out? https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-ai-models-faster-194409918.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Adjust the AIFS exactly the same way and…well Completely different type of system, though. Although I do feel models tend not to model lows deep enough, which also results in models coming in too southwest. Only from svwx experience though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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