January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm giving the euro to either help us out or the gfs to cave by like 12z tomm.  I said 0z tonight, but i'm going to give those features a chance to come into a better obs network.

It's a very fickle outcome to be sure, and all depends on how things interact, etc.  But honestly, I think too many here are overly invested in a big dog HECS kind of event, or they figure all we'll end up doing out this way is smoke cirrus.  Right now, I'm looking to see if we can get some kind of minor-moderate level snowfall out of it, with some slight hope of potentially a lot more.  I think that may be doable and more realistic at this point.  And really, if (for example) we get about 4-6" in the metro areas and all along I-95, I really don't think I'd care too much if some places southeast of us get 2 feet or whatever.  Would be different if we get zip or barely a coating of course, but you get the idea.

[LeesburgWx]

How wrong can the GFS be here? It is locked TF in. When was the last time the euro caved to the GFS? 

[Snowciopathic Snow Bro]

1 minute ago, Duca892 said:

Can I ask a question? What prevents this exactly from coming up the coast? That is back to back runs it just seems to slam into a brick wall and then is kicked out to sea. What prevents it? and can what is preventing it still be fixed up in time as we are about 100hrs out and time is running out. Thanks. 

Everyone wanting it to.

[IronTy]

Just now, Benjamn3 said:

“Dad I gotta shit”

When I tell him we're watching the GFS he probably drop a deuce right in front of me. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This is how model-hour goes down at my house.  

If I come, that dog will be missing when we leave.

[Wonderdog]

So do we need the Alaskan disturbance to catch up with the developing coastal and capture it to bring it westward and bomb out over the midAtlantic? Is this what the writeup was referring to?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This is how model-hour goes down at my house.  

You should have held your HH drink up to the right of the cute dog. Would have been a perfect photo lol.

[LordBaltimore]

Regardless of outcome this is a really interesting setup. Normies talk about how models can give/take-away 2 feet of snow four days out but this is a perfect example of how nonlinear dynamics can make huge things impossible to predict with certainty even at close range

[Buddy1987]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Of course I want the last 2 runs verbatim lol but it seems so unlikely.... 

Our land is on the east side of smith mtn at the base and our temporary home is at the base on the west side. I've wondered since we moved here what a true noreaster with CCB would look like on both sides. Smith is the first big rise in the western piedmont. About 1,200 vertical. That has to have some orograpic influence with strong E/NE flow. Sure likes to wring out drizzle during April easterlies lol

Honestly we could get lucky with like a Norlun type setup tho too.. 

[IronTy]

Just now, CAPE said:

You should have held your HH drink up to the right of the cute dog. Would have been a perfect photo lol.

Lol his head is blocking the can of mountain dew on my desk.  

[RevWarReenactor]

15 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I guess I'm not seeing what isn't to like about this run?  Ok it didn't show 13ft of snow area-wide but other than that it looks better to me.  

Its the GFS, its on an island by itself, even the best case scenario at this point is we get a few pity inches and watch a blizzard rage just to our southeast. Im just not seeing the hype. 

[Bob Chill]

Rgem @ 84

 

Gfs @ 84

 

Nearly identical. Gfs isn't on a total island at least....

 

[snowfan]

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

How wrong can the GFS be here? It is locked TF in. When was the last time the euro caved to the GFS? 

when was the last Olympics? And maybe the one before that?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Rgem @ 84

 

Gfs @ 84

 

Nearly identical. Gfs isn't on a total island at least....

 

Wait, why wasn't this talked about???

[Cobalt]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wait, why wasn't this talked about???

28 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

RGEM honestly not too far off of GFS at hr 84

 

[Grothar of Herndon]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

26" in Richmond 

How much for Short Pump!? 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Rgem @ 84

 

Gfs @ 84

 

Nearly identical. Gfs isn't on a total island at least....

 

18Z GGEM

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

[CAPE]

Mount Holly believes, at least a little. My forecast for the weekend-

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.

Saturday

A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Its the GFS, its on an island by itself, even the best case scenario at this point is we get a few pity inches and watch a blizzard rage just to our southeast. Im just not seeing the hype. 

There are lands south and east of the beltway it turns out.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Mount Holly believes, at least a little. My forecast for the weekend-

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 19.

Friday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.

Saturday

A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

 

Those temps are more like NE.  Cold has not disappointed 

[SnowGolfBro]

Time for the Euro to join the party!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18Z GGEM

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNM&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

Surface looks "busy."

https://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=18&mod=cmc_gdps&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=18&mod2=cmc_gdps&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=084

[WEATHER53]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prob like 4-6?  @NorthArlington101 will hook us up soon

I counted up each panel and was conservative and got 0.6. So around  6” snow 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Those temps are more like NE.  Cold has not disappointed 

I need this storm to produce. A fucking blizzard. I talked up the potential and I want it. Hate wasting historic cold.

[bncho]

GEFS significantly NW, maps coming shortly!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I counted up each panel and was conservative and got 0.6. So around  6” snow 

Hopefully in that situation, we'd have some good ratios

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I counted up each panel and was conservative and got 0.6. So around  6” snow 

Would think better than 10-1 with this storm. .6 might be more like 6-10?

[CAPE]

Better

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

GEFS significantly NW, maps coming shortly!

Just give me a fresh 4"-6" of snow.