January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[overcautionisbad]

6 minutes ago, bncho said:

Upgraded CMC is good 

I would like to order this please

[anotherman]

Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville).

Awful

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, anotherman said:

Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville).

Awful

How long have these apps been out? Smh

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

He’s probably right, but also is a weenie. His post for the last storm were unbearable. 

They’re all long shots.  That’s why they don’t happen often lol.  But that’s the fun of it!

 

27 minutes ago, Nomz said:

Here's AIFS verbatim. Probably add 50% to the totals to account for extremely good ratios.

 

If you just look at the 144 panel of ai euro you’d be pumped. 
 

does anyone have the google ensemble for 12z?

[EHoffman]

Apple Weather has over a foot of snow for DC next weekend lol

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, EHoffman said:

Apple Weather has over a foot of snow for DC next weekend lol

Time to do the song and dance again! TWC and Crappuweather must pay Apple to make mets look bad.

[IronTy]

I might need to switch from Android to Apple their weather app always gives weenie snow totals.  

[jayyy]

Cmc para is a hit

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville).

Awful

This is getting out of hand.  I pulled this from the native Apple Wx App.   Note the snowfall amounts.  Like come on now.

[anotherman]

This is getting out of hand.  I pulled this from the native Apple Wx App.   Note the snowfall amounts.  Like come on now.

People just believe it too. My friend called it a “forecast.”

[IUsedToHateCold]

13 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

Apple Weather has over a foot of snow for DC next weekend lol

Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong. 

[jayyy]

I might need to switch from Android to Apple their weather app always gives weenie snow totals.  

National blend of weenies model!

[jayyy]

Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong. 

This is correct. Can’t tell ya how I know (some of you in here may know what I do for a living) What I can tell you is it’s something that’s being worked on.

[IronTy]

Just now, jayyy said:

This is correct. Can’t tell ya how I know (some of you in here may know what I do for a living) What I can tell you is it’s something that’s being worked on.

They could save money and processing power and just ask Bastardi how much snow.   Would probably actually be more conservative in totals.  

[stormy]

20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You're judging a global model based on an amoeba sized piece of real estate and discarding the entire storm. Everyone is entitled to an opinion but based on how the storm unfolded for the entire coast, the euro was BY FAR the best from mid range on in. It literally locked in during the short range and barely wavered.

Micro analyzing a global model is using the wrong tool and perspective. No one tool is the best and thats why forecasters are important. To make sense of all the different nuances across guidance. Personally, I stick to a blend of the euro for qpf, track, and progression and the mesos for the fine details like thermals and banding. The last storm went exactly as I expected based on that formula. 

Hey Bob!   Good to here from you.   I always admire your common sense knowledge.

You're guidance is well taken.        2 questions

It seems that the Euro deterministic has a difficult time differentiating between sleet and freezing rain. There was a large swath of significant freezing rain southwest/northeast across western Va.. I posted Sunday morning that I didn't buy this because 925 temperatures were too cold. In fact, freezing rain was minimal.  Thoughts?

Last, the AI ens. doubled the received amount of snow on December 8.  It nearly tripled the amount received for Augusta County last weekend.  Thoughts?

 

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

This is correct. Can’t tell ya how I know (some of you in here may know what I do for a living) What I can tell you is it’s something that’s being worked on.

Apologize if this is stupid, but what's stopping them from just verbatim copying the GFS? AFAIK its public domain and, even if bad practice forecasting wise, would be leaps and bounds better than whatever they're doing right now.

[anotherman]

Apologize if this is stupid, but what's stopping them from just verbatim copying the GFS? AFAIK its public domain and, even if bad practice forecasting wise, would be leaps and bounds better than whatever they're doing right now.

I think that’s what weather underground/WeatherBug do.

[bdevil02]

27 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Apparently Google’s weather app is similar to Apple’s. A friend of mine just told me it says 30” for his town (Phoenixville).

Awful

Just looked at my phone, apparently I'm getting 12.46 inches of snow on Saturday. Good to know 

[Amped]

A couple things are adding to the low predictability of this setup.

1. For every mile THE PV retrogrades west thats a mile it has to come back east. It ends up taking much longer for the troff axis to move through. The opposite is true if it retrogrades less.

2. Every bit of vorticity that consolidates with the western lobe also leaves less vorticity for the eastern lobe, we get weaker confluence plus a stronger troff. Opposite is true if it splits further east

Combine all this and we will probably be getting windshield wiper runs for a couple of days.

We don't usually get snow from setups where the 50/50 low is this far south, so its not gonna be easy to get a favorable track.

[midatlanticweather]

[jayyy]

Apologize if this is stupid, but what's stopping them from just verbatim copying the GFS? AFAIK its public domain and, even if bad practice forecasting wise, would be leaps and bounds better than whatever they're doing right now.

There’s nothing preventing them tbh. I submitted an internal app feedback form to our engineering team to fix that shit asap

[Nomz]

FWIW the SPC WPC introduced two areas of heavy snow associated with the potential nor'easter. 

edit: WPC not SPC

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Nomz said:

FWIW the SPC introduced two areas of heavy snow associated with the potential nor'easter. 

Norfolk and Boston... We know what that reminds us of

[psuhoffman]

BTW everyone is praising the AIFS and it did do really well but it was southeast at day 5-6 also juts not by as much 

adjust what it shows now the same way this adjusted and we’re good 

[SnowenOutThere]

15 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

Based upon their performance this past weekend, my guess is that they're powered by AI or something. It's reading the QPF map and the temperature and saying "2 feet of snow!" without analyzing the midlevels, or it is analyzing the midlevels and coming up with something wildly wrong. 

They showed that Cvill got 22 inches of snow during Sunday. They literally lie about the past and future. I assumed it was just some random model output combination but I'm convinced it just randomly picks the highest possible output and runs with it. Even then I have no idea how it got a short term forecast so wrong when any model had half its amount. Maybe we as a forum should write them an email? Genuinely someone should do something about this

[psuhoffman]

This is what it ended up actually looking like 

[psuhoffman]

Adjust the AIFS exactly the same way and…well 

[LeesburgWx]

 

No one posted the Blizzard on the JMA?

[Random Chaos]

Wonder how these new models released today check out?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-unveils-ai-models-faster-194409918.html

[Nomz]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Adjust the AIFS exactly the same way and…well 

Completely different type of system, though. Although I do feel models tend not to model lows deep enough, which also results in models coming in too southwest. Only from svwx experience though.