January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

You wanna create the thread now? You created a thread for last storm around this time!

Only @stormtracker should have that power.

[somecallmetim]

1 minute ago, konksw said:

Hopefully our margin of error is higher than typical with this cold entrenched. 

Cold was entrenched yesterday...which to be fair, gave us the margin of error to be all frozen.

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Only @stormtracker should have that power.

I agree. If 12z is good I think he should create it.

[Climate175]

I'm a bit rusty on the times each model runs, could someone give a brief run down again?

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

Exactly. Just about 120 hrs from the forecasted precip (snow) entering the region. Not a guarantee, but the fact this next one could be a Miller A looks promising. 

Funny thing is, and I remember because I posted the image about 8 days ago, models were showing a clear Miller A for the same time frame. Kind of got muted for a bit after, but now obviously is showing up again.

If any of the big deterministic guidance besides the euro jumps on board today, this place is going to erupt.

[konksw]

Just now, somecallmetim said:

Cold was entrenched yesterday...which to be fair, gave us the margin of error to be all frozen.

It was and produced a really cool storm where plain rain was never a concern. 

[Paleocene]

I think this threat is close enough that it merits a thread to preserve true long run (day 6+) discussion for this thread.  However, I'd love to see consistency thru 18z today...

[clskinsfan]

Dear god it just crawls up the coast. A thing of beauty. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Dear god it just crawls up the coast. A thing of beauty. 

How much you end up with most recent storm?

[clskinsfan]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

How much you end up with?

I went with 8.3. But I know it was more than that if I been religious about clearing my snow board.

[Ji]

I agree. If 12z is good I think he should create it.

No way

[Buddy1987]

Blocking/EE rule.. what could go wrong?!

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing is, and I remember because I posted the image about 8 days ago, models were showing a clear Miller A for the same time frame. Kind of got muted for a bit after, but now obviously is showing up again.

If any of the big deterministic guidance besides the euro jumps on board today, this place is going to erupt.

You most definitely were gooning over it. The “Wiggum Storm” lives. 

[NorthArlington101]

No way

LR thread is for discussing spring. Sorry

[Climate175]

GFS

• 12Z: ~10:30 AM EST
• 18Z: ~4:30 PM EST

ECMWF (Euro)

• 12Z: ~1:45–2:00 PM EST
• 18Z: ~7:45–8:30 PM EST

Is this about right?

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

I agree. If 12z is good I think he should create it.

I would think more like 12z tomorrow, but he's our snow dad so.

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

I agree. If 12z is good I think he should create it.

Bruh

[Paleocene]

Just now, Climate175 said:

GFS

• 12Z: ~10:30 AM EST
• 18Z: ~4:30 PM EST

ECMWF (Euro)

• 12Z: ~1:45–2:00 PM EST
• 18Z: ~7:45–8:30 PM EST

Is this about right?

subtract an hour from your euro times and yes, that's about right.

[Eskimo Joe]

Incredible to see the op 06z Euro throw a sub 980mb low off Cape May, NJ this weekend. That's a blizzard almost every time in these parts.

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, bncho said:

EPS-AI much more onboard now

And that's 10:1 too.

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

GFS

• 12Z: ~10:30 AM EST
• 18Z: ~4:30 PM EST

ECMWF (Euro)

• 12Z: ~1:45–2:00 PM EST
• 18Z: ~7:45–8:30 PM EST

Is this about right?

Nowadays, you can get about these times. 

10:30 AM/PM 0z/12z GFS Begins (by 11:15 you're out to 144 hr or so)

11:00 AM/PM GGEM 0z/12 

11:30 AM/PM 0z/12z UKMET frames are out 

12:20 AM/PM 0z/12 EURO begins

Other models & times

NAM starts 8:45 12z and 6 hour intervals (takes until about 9:30 for full run) 

ICON & RGEM both out around 10AM and 6 hour intervals for its cycles

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I would think more like 12z tomorrow, but he's our snow dad so.

Maybe wait until it’s more than a light westerly breeze away from being a fish storm. 

[stormy]

Just talked to a friend who lives at 2700 ft near Big Meadows.

She said she never received a flake of snow but a couple inches of sleet. 

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Thats a vertically stacked system at 6z or very close. Someone mentioned jan 25, 2000. I cant unsee it.

Yours truly.  But what the Euro is showing is 1/25/00 on steriods...the illegal ones!

[Climate175]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Nowadays, you can get about these times. 

10:30 AM/PM 0z/12z GFS Begins (by 11:15 you're out to 144 hr or so)

11:00 AM/PM GGEM 0z/12 

11:30 AM/PM 0z/12z UKMET frames are out 

12:20 AM/PM 0z/12 EURO begins

Other models & times

NAM starts 8:45 12z and 6 hour intervals (takes until about 9:30 for full run) 

ICON & RGEM both out around 10AM and 6 hour intervals for its cycles

Thanks for that rundown!

[mikeg0305]

Good point! Adjustments incoming (that's a given for sure lol).

Anyone have the Euro at the same time? Just curious.

[Ralph Wiggum]

14 minutes ago, Scraff said:

You most definitely were gooning over it. The “Wiggum Storm” lives. 

In an fairness the window i was watching was 27-29, the clipper i thought would dive and bomb at the coast.  Which it does but too late for any effects but that does become our 50/50 for the weekend, so there's that.

[Eskimo Joe]

The west coast 500 mb ridge on the EPS is textbook for a major east coast snowfall, and has trended in a more favorable direction over the past several runs.

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

That’s almost exactly where the GFS had this back on Thursday last week at 977 mb 

[Climate175]

To think—the upstream energy that could help drive this system is currently over the Pacific It is not depicted some 300hr away, but currently present as we speak.