January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Couldn’t be in a better spot really, it really seems like everything is trending to the ai models.  And I for one welcome our machine overloads when they give us snow like this!

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

what do your crap ones give us

 

That's the thing...they've been missing or removed since like last week.   Popped back up once and now gone again

[Scraff]

Looks like I picked the wrong damn day to quit HH drinking.  See you all this afternoon. 
 

ETA: 163 peeps in here. Nice!! Hope you all are enjoying your time here today. Fun times ahead.  Also—Feel free to chime in at anytime and instigate something with JI. He loves it. 

[Ji]

does euro still have the SW moving to slow from the southwest bias. There is no snow on saturday

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Double bonus is that we're not looking at some HR240 threat...we're almost inside D5!

I also like that even though the GFS looked not so good with the surface, there was some improvement I believe upstairs?  So even that model which has been the most suppressed, perhaps showed incremental improvement for us in some way.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That's the thing...they've been missing or removed since like last week.   Popped back up once and now gone again

you should ask for a refund from the zero you pay for it

[bncho]

Thank you to all who were with us along the way. See yall at 18z

[nj2va]

Looks like snow starts late Saturday night ~11p/12a Sunday. Kuchera is like 16” in DC lol.

[snowmagnet]

We have been focusing on the 24th-26th storm, but are there 2 more storms after that?  I know there was something at the end of the week into Feb. 1st, and it must be good based on the Ukie Feb 2nd totals. 

No work will get done this week. 

 

[T. August]

Kuchera is wild… thru 162 dc 15”+

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Thank you to all who were with us along the way. See yall at 18z

Ok, I'm sold. Heading to Kalshi now to place some bets

[Ji]

[H2O]

I think suppression is least likely.  CMC showed how just a little more amped storm will slam those mids over top and there is more mix.  It's like roles reversed when back in the day the euro would hold things back and GFS went ham.  Now the gfs is laggy with pieces.  Topsy turvy world.  

But there is a storm.  Next 5 days will be hell as everyone loses their shit run to run when jack zones shift.  I'll just aim for 4" and be happy with whatever.  

[Warm Nose]

Just now, H2O said:

I think suppression is least likely.  CMC showed how just a little more amped storm will slam those mids over top and there is more mix.  It's like roles reversed when back in the day the euro would hold things back and GFS went ham.  Now the gfs is laggy with pieces.  Topsy turvy world.  

But there is a storm.  Next 5 days will be hell as everyone loses their shit run to run when jack zones shift.  I'll just aim for 4" and be happy with whatever.  

Given our predicament to date, this is a most welcome development.

[wasnow215]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

VA/NC border probably 15-20"

DC probably around 10-14"

Baltimore probably around 8-10"

Lol -you skip RVA on purpose???

[nj2va]

Kind of reminds me of 12/19/09 in terms of the cold powder / no mixing concerns east of the fall line.

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, wasnow215 said:

Lol -you skip RVA on purpose???

It snows there?

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, wasnow215 said:

Lol -you skip RVA on purpose???

Is that on the east coast?. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I think suppression is least likely.  CMC showed how just a little more amped storm will slam those mids over top and there is more mix.  It's like roles reversed when back in the day the euro would hold things back and GFS went ham.  Now the gfs is laggy with pieces.  Topsy turvy world.  

But there is a storm.  Next 5 days will be hell as everyone loses their shit run to run when jack zones shift.  I'll just aim for 4" and be happy with whatever.  

Hey, as long as I don't see suppression I'm good. Because if it's amped like whst is being modeled now...it's possible that everybody will have a chance to have their biggest snowfall in a decade. Let the jack zones roll 

[Rvarookie]

10 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I mean, this was one hell of a 12z suite. I’m breaking out the scotch for 18z

It’s a holiday. Time to get the vodka flowing for the vodka cold 

[stormtracker]

I don't care

 

 

[stormtracker]

Use this thread to focus back on long range and any threats outside of the weekend.   Good luck.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don't care

 

 

Yeah ya don't have much choice especially if there are other things to track too, lol

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I don't care

 

 

Thread closed?

[wasnow215]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

It snows there?

Lol-I live southwest a little bit of Richmond, in Moseley, Virginia. We had a few good hits last year and the Monday, 10 days after Thanksgiving or whatever had about 5 or 6 inches. It's been a good run down here.

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I don't care

 

 

Game time Boys and Girls!

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I don't care

 

 

Storm went to crap so fast, locked it before it opened lol 

[nj2va]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Thread closed?

Yeah its locked for me too.

[AlexD1990]

locked for me as well.

[stormtracker]

Shit...fixed now