January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

Hard time making it north with that up north.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

GFS did such a great job with today’s storm, I’m sure its right with this too!

 Well it did ok today with it. But 5 days ago it was horrible 

[Ralph Wiggum]

That Baja Blast upper low is a BIG piece of this. Does it sit and eject waves? Does it come across as one big bowling ball? We already know almost assuredly that we are getting a cold arctic high coming South. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yup...ain't no GFS gonna get me down (and NOBODY should be down)

When it’s on ens an better version of itself shows good hit then why worry about Op gfs. 

[Paleocene]

at this range we should do a PBP of the GEFS to see if that baja upper low gets stuck. it doens't on the ai

[aldie 22]

Im worried about the iguanas in south Florida 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Why am I feeling congrats Kitty Hawk…

Way too early to say it's going to hit there. Still 8 days out . 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

When it’s on ens an better version of itself shows good hit then why worry about Op gfs. 

  Exactly!! This far out I go with ensembles more than the op. The ops horrible this far out

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Hard time making it north with that up north.

Time that Baja low right with the western extension of the pv dropping south in response to ridging up top and KABOOM! We are not too far off. Wtf is that  baja low gonna do?

[Conway7305]

Wait for ensembles.  Operational is mute at this range 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Im worried about the iguanas in south Florida 

Why should a snake in the grass worry about iguanas?

 

 

 

 

 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Im worried about the iguanas in south Florida 

Fuck those iguanas I want a snowstorm 

[clskinsfan]

Difference in the HP between the GFS and Euro is huge. 

[Scraff]

Fricken stupid ass GooFus. I’m so mad. All this blizzard beer build up. Meh. Guess I’ll just give it all away now. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Op is cold asf, thats for sure. Too much of a good thing. No matter what, if this solution verifies, the cold is goong to relax at some point and that ull is going to lumber eastward. Delayed but not denied friends.

Eta: i dont buy this op run fwiw

[Duca892]

Holy Mary mother of god that suppression 

[TSSN+]

I’ll trust this over regular gfs. Not much different than 12z if anything maybe more north. 
 

 

[bncho]

GFS is an awful model, why trust it at 7+ days lololololo

[Mikeymac5306]

Some of you in this forum...

[aldie 22]

Has any potential storm this year or in recent years had model consensus? Im sure there has been but it sure feels like every threat has 2-3 camps all the way to game time 

[Heisy]

AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4.

One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind.

There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind

Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea.


.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4.

One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind.

There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind

Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea.


.

I mean with high pressure pressing down in the middle of the country, wouldn't south be (unfortunately) more likely than north? Feels like that's a pretty strong press.

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4.

One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind.

There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind

Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea.


.

What do you consider the southern MA?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Op is a mess....dives that 1052 hp all the way to Georgia. Sets up a return flow out of central America as it propagates to the Bahamas. That would be not good. Ensembles the way to go. Im even skeptical of the Allen Iverson models tbh. Going with what we know wrt forecasting at this range.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Op is cold asf, thats for sure. Too much of a good thing. No matter what, if this solution verifies, the cold is goong to relax at some point and that ull is going to lumber eastward. Delayed but not denied friends.

Eta: i dont buy this op run fwiw

If I had to pick a window to bet on between this one in yours...I may prefer yourself because stuff would be starting to relax a bit whereas this week the cold is building in. But I could be wrong though

[Terpeast]

I’d pay attention to how the ensembles trend, whether they shift more south or stay where they are. 

[anotherman]

Op is a mess....dives that 1052 hp all the way to Georgia. Sets up a return flow out of central America as it propagates to the Bahamas. That would be not good. Ensembles the way to go. Im even skeptical of the Allen Iverson models tbh. Going with what we know wrt forecasting at this range.

But I thought the Allen Iverson models were “the answer?”

I’ll be here all week.

[stormy]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean with high pressure pressing down in the middle of the country, wouldn't south be (unfortunately) more likely than north? Feels like that's a pretty strong press.

 Sorry You didn't get your 4 inches!!!      Blame it on the goofy Euro! 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

AI GFS is less suppressed than its 12z run.

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS is an awful model, why trust it at 7+ days lololololo

Not sure anyone here is trusting it?