mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Hard time making it north with that up north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, nj2va said: GFS did such a great job with today’s storm, I’m sure its right with this too! Well it did ok today with it. But 5 days ago it was horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 That Baja Blast upper low is a BIG piece of this. Does it sit and eject waves? Does it come across as one big bowling ball? We already know almost assuredly that we are getting a cold arctic high coming South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, stormtracker said: Yup...ain't no GFS gonna get me down (and NOBODY should be down) When it’s on ens an better version of itself shows good hit then why worry about Op gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 at this range we should do a PBP of the GEFS to see if that baja upper low gets stuck. it doens't on the ai 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Im worried about the iguanas in south Florida 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Why am I feeling congrats Kitty Hawk… Way too early to say it's going to hit there. Still 8 days out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: When it’s on ens an better version of itself shows good hit then why worry about Op gfs. Exactly!! This far out I go with ensembles more than the op. The ops horrible this far out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, mitchnick said: Hard time making it north with that up north. Time that Baja low right with the western extension of the pv dropping south in response to ridging up top and KABOOM! We are not too far off. Wtf is that baja low gonna do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Wait for ensembles. Operational is mute at this range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Im worried about the iguanas in south Florida Why should a snake in the grass worry about iguanas? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Im worried about the iguanas in south Florida Fuck those iguanas I want a snowstorm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Difference in the HP between the GFS and Euro is huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Fricken stupid ass GooFus. I’m so mad. All this blizzard beer build up. Meh. Guess I’ll just give it all away now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Op is cold asf, thats for sure. Too much of a good thing. No matter what, if this solution verifies, the cold is goong to relax at some point and that ull is going to lumber eastward. Delayed but not denied friends. Eta: i dont buy this op run fwiw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Holy Mary mother of god that suppression 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’ll trust this over regular gfs. Not much different than 12z if anything maybe more north. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 GFS is an awful model, why trust it at 7+ days lololololo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Some of you in this forum... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Has any potential storm this year or in recent years had model consensus? Im sure there has been but it sure feels like every threat has 2-3 camps all the way to game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4. One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind. There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behindOver the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4. One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind. There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea. . I mean with high pressure pressing down in the middle of the country, wouldn't south be (unfortunately) more likely than north? Feels like that's a pretty strong press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: AiGFS still a huge hit, difference between it and the OP continues to be the STJ energy that crashes on shore around day 4. One thing I’d say is the 18z AiGFS was a little slower with it and it almost left it behind. There also looks to be some N stream energy diving S around 5-6. As usual it all comes down to luck and timing of these two waves. The opportunity is there. This event def favors S mid Atlantic more imo just because they can get a hit even if most of the STJ energy gets left behind Over the next few suites I hope we see a gradual N idea. . What do you consider the southern MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Op is a mess....dives that 1052 hp all the way to Georgia. Sets up a return flow out of central America as it propagates to the Bahamas. That would be not good. Ensembles the way to go. Im even skeptical of the Allen Iverson models tbh. Going with what we know wrt forecasting at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Op is cold asf, thats for sure. Too much of a good thing. No matter what, if this solution verifies, the cold is goong to relax at some point and that ull is going to lumber eastward. Delayed but not denied friends. Eta: i dont buy this op run fwiw If I had to pick a window to bet on between this one in yours...I may prefer yourself because stuff would be starting to relax a bit whereas this week the cold is building in. But I could be wrong though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I’d pay attention to how the ensembles trend, whether they shift more south or stay where they are. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Op is a mess....dives that 1052 hp all the way to Georgia. Sets up a return flow out of central America as it propagates to the Bahamas. That would be not good. Ensembles the way to go. Im even skeptical of the Allen Iverson models tbh. Going with what we know wrt forecasting at this range.But I thought the Allen Iverson models were “the answer?” I’ll be here all week. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I mean with high pressure pressing down in the middle of the country, wouldn't south be (unfortunately) more likely than north? Feels like that's a pretty strong press. Sorry You didn't get your 4 inches!!! Blame it on the goofy Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 AI GFS is less suppressed than its 12z run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, bncho said: GFS is an awful model, why trust it at 7+ days lololololo Not sure anyone here is trusting it? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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