January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[EastCoast NPZ]

25 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Well i've clearly pissed somebody off lol

Its been essentially the identical snow map for years.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

We're still 12-24 hours past the critical 4 day window for this system, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even further at 18z and 00z. Sometimes we even see it trend (either way) inside 48 hours!

Seen early December storm trend north of me in the last 36hrs so ya. North trends keep it rollin. Just don’t go too far north lol 

[87storms]

35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Keep tilting that beotch 

 

I trust that trough for Frederick like I trust a Wizards draft pick.  Congrats eastern shore, though.

[somecallmetim]

Agree that it is likely to continue trending one way or the other, unless it stays the same.

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We're still 12-24 hours past the critical 4 day window for this system, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it trend even further at 18z and 00z. Sometimes we even see it trend (either way) inside 48 hours!

it could also trend east again lol. We live in a one step forward 3 steps back world so that is my mindset unless proven otherwise

[stormtracker]

So far, UKMET looks mostly similar to the GFS so far, not exact

[CAPE]

12z GEFS further NW than 6z with precip.

[stormtracker]

FYI, that was at 54.  Now looks a bit different

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GEFS with a lot more members closer to the coast, so it's not just op.

Yes. That's excellent. Looks like light snow back to the I-81 corridor on the mean.

[wxmeddler]

Good stuff.

 

[Solution Man]

[stormtracker]

UKMET probably won't get it done, but it seems close.  Don't know how previous runs look, so can't say better or worse.  Somebody else do that

[SnowenOutThere]

UKMET probably going to be worse than its really good 0z run as there more energy left in the northern part of the trough so it can't neg tilt as well. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

UK says no dice, escapes out to sea.

[midatlanticweather]

Let's get some negative tilt! The western guys are hoping for more! But I am pulling for everyone. 

[TSSN+]

Gfs best, cmc close, ukemt whiff euro next 

[WesternFringe]

0z vs 12 z

[stormtracker]

Kinda weird on the ukmet.  Trof is just slower, but looks good but that L is well east.   @CAPE is that front running thing stronger messing up the works?

[WxUSAF]

You all failed to notice that the Ukie has 1-4” on Saturday for metro corridor and N/W

[paxpatriot]

Never thought I'd have to move east to see more snow, lol. But these last few years...

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Good stuff.

 

I'd be super hyped along the coast in this progressive flow.  Could be a chaseable event for the western crew.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the 12z UKMET was better for northern areas?

[stormtracker]

Probably out for the Euro, got a meeting.  This mfers want me to do work at work.   But i know yall go it.  Might peek into the board to see whats doing.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the 12z UKMET was better for northern areas?

yes

[bncho]

There's a south based +NAO when this system happens (taken out of Chuck's playbook). Usually the trend is -NAO = SE trend, +NAO = NW trend. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the 12z UKMET was better for northern areas?

Ya but not for the coastal. Gets snow from some junk wave 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You all failed to notice that the Ukie has 1-4” on Saturday for metro corridor and N/W

I know people hate threads for whatever reason but wonder if we need to split off the Saturday stuff. Getting confusing

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know people hate threads for whatever reason but wonder if we need to split off the Saturday stuff. Getting confusing

Let’s keep the Mojo here for now

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the 12z UKMET was better for northern areas?

Probably because it shows 2-4" on Saturday from that wave. You have to wonder if we prefer that to not exist re: wave spacing and the spiel around that.

[bncho]

Consensus on the GEFS is there for a more juiced up system, also a slight NW trend