January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Just saw the 12z GFS and came in to say that whenever you have 3 streams/waves interacting, the results are either explosive or disappointing. And 90% of the time, it's the latter. 

Stay full-hearted weenies. The overall pattern is good and we're entering peak season.

Weeniewonderland coming?

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Considering Florida is completely gone from the map maybe this is a post climate change hell world. That said, fuck generative ai, we need our brains more than ever. 

Well yeah, that's not the best application for AI. It does rely on user prompts, and sometimes the output is legit comical.

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Well yeah, that's not the best application for AI. It does rely on user prompts, and sometimes the output is legit comical.

Correct, this was not meant to be a deep dive on the illustrations, but rather for a bit of stress relief. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's more about the general pattern than discreet threats at that range. 11-15 days is a good range for pattern stuff. For example, mid January was kinda the benchmark for the pattern change, and...despite the potential misses, you can see the chsnge happening. I won't attempt to explain as I couldn't; but layman eyes see stuff flowing differently on the models

Well the "general pattern " haven't done jack shit for us  this winter lol . I'm sure it will but not gonna put much I to fantasy storms or patterns on models 14 days out lol that's ludicrous and  reaching for straws 

[T. August]

At least the euro is cold af next week. Highs in the teens Wednesday. Eagles Mere might even be in the low 10s.

[TSSN+]

H5 little closer for cape storm.  Brings in some flurries and snow showers. Ai has coastal close by. Worth keeping an eye on. 

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Well the "general pattern " haven't done jack shit for us  this winter lol . I'm sure it will but not gonna put much I to fantasy storms or patterns on models 14 days out lol that's ludicrous and  reaching for straws 

A pattern at 14 days or less is not exactly fantasy. I know that the PNA which has been negative (not helpful) has crossed into positive territory for the first time this winter. That's current and could help. There are other details that @CAPE and others have highlighted here. But what I'm saying is analyzing the potential of a a pattern is different than trying to nail down a specific storm two weeks out. There are larger scale features ensembles can pick up on.

[Ji]

lets see if our 3-4 foot blizzard comes back

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

lets see if our 3-4 foot blizzard comes back

It's solid but not nearly as spectacular. Still like seeing it out there.

[Ji]

she's back. nothing like a 1032 high in SW Virginia coming up the coast lol

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's solid but not nearly as spectacular. Still like seeing it out there.

it looks like we may have a nino like southern stream for about a week...with cold air available. Just have to make it work

[Ji]

the euro is close to what it had a few days ago. a very long lasting precip event with cold air available. just have to fine tune the details

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

she's back. nothing like a 1032 high in SW Virginia coming up the coast lol

Let’s reel it in. Just 330 more hours to go! 

[bncho]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro is close to what it had a few days ago. a very long lasting precip event with cold air available. just have to fine tune the details

notice how you get more likes and less weenies when you post stuff like this? good job!

[Terpeast]

I think we will like the EPS. Huge degree day gain from 12z

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think we will like the EPS. Huge degree day gain from 12z

Huge degree gain? Don't think we want that! (I know what you meant, lol Just busting ya about the warning)

[dailylurker]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huge degree gain? Don't think we want that! (I know what you meant, lol Just busting ya about the warning)

I don't. Wtf is he saying? Lol

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

I don't. Wtf is he saying? Lol

Sorry, was talking in terms of weather degree days. A gain in degree days means the model trended colder nationally (likely for the east since it is more heavily weighted by population). A loss means warmer. This is primarily for the energy and nat gas markets.

[stormy]

Well, here we are less than 72 hrs. from event #1.   I can already see cirrus mares tails gathering in the s.w.

As I said a couple days ago, eastern areas are more favored on Thursday/Thursday night.

Western zones will enjoy favoritism later in the season as we climb toward neutral Enso and the stj shifts north.

The 330 Euro is not worth serious scrutiny at this time even though the EPS sniffs in that direction. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Sorry, was talking in terms of weather degree days. A gain in degree days means the model trended colder nationally (likely for the east since it is more heavily weighted by population). A loss means warmer. This is primarily for the energy and nat gas markets.

Alright so I didn't fully understand what you were saying after all, haha (layman fail, lol). I knew you meant it was gonna be colder but I didn't know about the nat gas terminology. Interesting that term means the inverse of what you'd assume!

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, winter_warlock said:

Well the "general pattern " haven't done jack shit for us  this winter lol . I'm sure it will but not gonna put much I to fantasy storms or patterns on models 14 days out lol that's ludicrous and  reaching for straws 

Covered this  at end of Dec as to the 7th then 14th then 21st being  the magic moment . 7th out the door and 14th on life support so let’s head in the sand for the 21st.  Models cannot predict low pressure placements and movements around the mid Atlantic in the winter.  They are not outcome related forecasts, they are myriads of examples. That desperately needs to be resolved 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

she's back. nothing like a 1032 high in SW Virginia coming up the coast lol

That is an absurd depiction 

[NorthArlington101]

Ignoring the snow means for a moment and only looking at precip it's pretty clear we've got two shots for some limited moisture in the next seven days and then a "wet" period. Hard to say too much more.

[87storms]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Well yeah, that's not the best application for AI. It does rely on user prompts, and sometimes the output is legit comical.

AI is an overused term. At its core, it’s just advanced analytics and machine learning algorithms. We’re just able to do more now because of the advancement of technology that’s allowed us to, for example, feed streaming data into neural networks and the like. I think it’s all pretty interesting from a math and stats perspective, but it’s still garbage in/garbage out, in the same way that bad data will lead to a messed up best fit line on a basic 2D graph. The biggest issue I see is the black box nature of the more advanced architectures. You need a PhD to understand why some of them work, though there is software out now that is focused on interpreting how algorithms come to the conclusions they do. I haven’t used it, but I know it exists. The other issue is that, at least in the weather forecasting AI world, I’m pretty sure the predictions are made based on how well the ML components can identify patterns instead of relying solely on primitive equations. I’m not sure how you study that from a physics perspective, per se.

[Ji]

50 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think we will like the EPS. Huge degree day gain from 12z

we went from 3.7 to 3.1 inches of snow

[StormyClearweather]

Check out that mean 2m 24-hr min, and at 360 hours to boot. 

 

[CAPE]

12z EPS supportive of the op. Snow maps are respectable at this range, for those who need to have that to believe.

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

we went from 3.7 to 3.1 inches of snow

Which means nothing without knowing the specifics. 
 

The snow means aren’t useless but the raw numbers and a change like that are. For example did the mean lose an inch from some crazy outlier members on the threats over the next 7 days?  Thats pretty meaningless. 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Which means nothing without knowing the specifics. 
 

The snow means aren’t useless but the raw numbers and a change like that are. For example did the mean lose an inch from some crazy outlier members on the threats over the next 7 days?  Thats pretty meaningless. 

There is some ignorance here when it comes to interpreting the 'value' of mean snowfall. That's why I would rather not see posts about it until we are within 4-5 days of a persistent threat among guidance. Keep it in the digital snow thread until then.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

12z EPS supportive of the op. Snow maps are respectable at this range, for those who need to have that to believe.

Think I'll refrain from looking into this one for a couple days and might take a break from the past 4+ days of tracking.