January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

We take to the bank and deposit now

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cash out!

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Cash out!

Storm thread gonna be a scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

[Terpeast]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Storm thread gonna be a scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

Yes. This has both glory and heartbreak written all over it. 

[Amped]

The 500mb low track is decent for Washington to Boston. Solid Norlun troff setup. Earlier runs may have been too far south for us to get the best dynamics.

[RickinBaltimore]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cue the Big Bill Hell's commercial.

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Storm thread gonna be a scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

Would we even know where the banding would setup or is it almost fully a nowcast situation and praying it goes over your house?

[clskinsfan]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

We better keep that 500mb low at the latitude it passes. Can’t afford any further shift north. 

Agree. We would be much better off having pass just a touch south of the VA/NC border. 

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Nice snow hole over Winchester. It has to be correct.

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like Euro and GFS give everyone a 2"-4" event with localized 5" spots.

[Eskimo Joe]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Storm thread gonna be a scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

Would advocate for storm mode inside of HR 48 and a heavily moderated thread.

[Heisy]

If the ULL closes off someone will get a moderate/decent event, really hard to pinpoint that, but models still not all on the same page with that even happening. Give it another 1-2 cycles.


.

[mitchnick]

Idk, but at 246hrs it looks to me that the Euro is setting up for an overrunning event.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Would we even know where the banding would setup or is it almost fully a nowcast situation and praying it goes over your house?

This is totally a thoughts and prayers event. 80% going to be broken hearted. Don’t think I’ll be relaxed until I’m shoveling. If we could be objective though, it’s potentially a really cool event to watch just from a dynamics perspective.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

If the ULL closes off someone will get a moderate/decent event, really hard to pinpoint that, but models still not all on the same page with that even happening. Give it another 1-2 cycles.

Yes. Fun things happen with you have an upper level low closing off to your south.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Anything about the @CAPE storm, on the Euro?

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Idk, but at 246hrs it looks to me that the Euro is setting up for an overrunning event.

Cold is crushing and may kill it. Lol

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

This is totally a thoughts and prayers event. 80% going to be broken hearted. Don’t think I’ll be relaxed until I’m shoveling. If we could be objective though, it’s potentially a really cool event to watch just from a dynamics perspective.

Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading 

[mitchnick]

Meh. Warm air winds this run.

[stormtracker]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Storm thread gonna be a murder scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading 

Not sure if there are any specific papers or write-ups on these, but the two best examples of a "ULL event" I can think of would be the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm and the Jan. 26, 2011 storm (perhaps the 2011 event more than Feb. 2010, though both involved that).  But overall, my understanding is that it's related to the instability, cooling aloft, and banding that can set up with a strong ULL vort going through.

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is totally a thoughts and prayers event. 80% going to be broken hearted. Don’t think I’ll be relaxed until I’m shoveling. If we could be objective though, it’s potentially a really cool event to watch just from a dynamics perspective.

This is basically what I was saying earlier.  I don't like these scenarios as shown.   I'm just going forward thinking things will change

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Cold is crushing and may kill it. Lol

Euro’s got it but better for north.  Signal’s there.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Meh. Warm air winds this run.

Good analysis lol 

[stormtracker]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would advocate for storm mode inside of HR 48 and a heavily moderated thread.

Probably more like 72 hours and I don't care if anybody comes with that superstition shit.  Around that time we could be talking about 2 separate events.

[CAPE]

21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Storm thread gonna be a scene with a GFS/euro type outcome lol

Much of how this turns out appears to lie with the inverted trough feature and its location. 12z Euro has it further north than 6z. Would be nice if this was a simple UL low pass with a widespread few inches like you mentioned a couple days ago.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Good analysis lol 

There was a cold push, then it retreated the next panel and that's all she wrote. Plenty of time for sure, but last night's dream won't be repeated.  

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading 

Off the top of my head I can’t think of a great analog for this, but I don’t have the photographic memory that @psuhoffmanand others do. I’d guess New England has some experience with these? But you’re looking at a ULL deepening and capturing a surface low basically on top of us. So this is all dynamics driven with strong upward motion. There’s no great moisture feed off the ocean, no WAA or CCB well defined. So I guess we’re looking at where the best lift from the jet streak exit region and the ULL falls? Maybe there will be some frontogen at like 700mb that will produce some of those higher totals? It’s totally a Nowcast. 1-6” would be a reasonable range.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Off the top of my head I can’t think of a great analog for this, but I don’t have the photographic memory that @psuhoffmanand others do. I’d guess New England has some experience with these? But you’re looking at a ULL deepening and capturing a surface low basically on top of us. So this is all dynamics driven with strong upward motion. There’s no great moisture feed off the ocean, no WAA or CCB well defined. So I guess we’re looking at where the best lift from the jet streak exit region and the ULL falls? Maybe there will be some frontogen at like 700mb that will produce some of those higher totals? It’s totally a Nowcast. 1-6” would be a reasonable range.

Paging @MillvilleWx, @wxmeddler, and @wxmvpete to see if they know.