January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Gfs lost all good vibes from 00z. Worthless model

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs lost all good vibes from 00z. Worthless model

Didn't lose anything. Noise-level changes

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Gfs lost all good vibes from 00z. Worthless model

You saw the stats on modeling that were posted. It's the worst. The problem is that when it shows something good, we make the mistake of wanting to believe this will be the time when it's right. Of course, it isn't. So now weenies in NE are us from last night for 6 hours until it pulls the rug on them like us.

[TSSN+]

39 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs lost all good vibes from 00z. Worthless model

Huh? Looks like the best run yet? 
 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Huh? Looks like the best run yet? 
 

 

Exactly!

First things first…

We need to determine the 15th/16th before we worry about what’s next.

Best run yet with more room for upside with a more tucked track.

Here’s the 6z GFS snow by the 16th.

[Ji]

Huh? Looks like the best run yet? 
 
 

Was talking about the huge overrunning event

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Was talking about the huge overrunning event

Changes to make the 15th better going to change what happens after so let’s worry about the 15th first. 

[Ji]

Anyone want to guess what this diving sw in Wisconsin could do?

Also don’t see much of a kicker now

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Changes to make the 15th better going to change what happens after so let’s worry about the 15th first. 

Lol, My old handbook says to take the GFS for the first chance & the 0z Euro for the one a few days later.

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Anyone want to guess what this diving sw in Wisconsin could do?

Also don’t see much of a kicker now

That looks good!

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, Ji said:

Anyone want to guess what this diving sw in Wisconsin could do?

Also don’t see much of a kicker now

Comparing 5H anomalies 6z vs 0z, 0z looks better organized with the southern vort, but 6z has energy dropping south from the Great Lakes that wasn't there at 0z. That's a wild card.

[RevWarReenactor]

57 minutes ago, Ji said:

Was talking about the huge overrunning event

You can't seriously be taking anything the GFS says at hr 233 as gospel can you?

 

Last week Chicago went from a Blizzard at hour 141 to a rainstorm one run later. 

[GreyHat]

25 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

You can't seriously be taking anything the GFS says at hr 233 as gospel can you?

 

Last week Chicago went from a Blizzard at hour 141 to a rainstorm one run later. 

I  agree with you and the lo g range looks like warm weather at least here near Dover Delaware. Of course things can change.

Beyond the 16th the weather remains in the 30s during the day and upper 20s at night through 21st and start to climb into the 40s 23rd with slight chance of snow showers those days. That's to far into the future and will change.

I'm heading to the farm below eagles Mere PA next week for the last weekend of bow hunting. The weather there is even nice with temps day upper 20s and lows middle to upper teens.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z EPS, 6z GEFS & 6z AI EPS show the potential for the upcoming period.

[GreyHat]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z EPS, 6z GEFS & 6z AI EPS show the potential for the upcoming period.

Those are more believable for the NE as long as the system stays close enough to give them snow.

Thanks for posting and supports the forecast for my area that I posted. 

[North Balti Zen]

For the record - I recognize this from past winters.

Two waves - people get invested in one, then the other, then a why not both hope sets in.

It looks promising for one, then the other, then magically, a shift to a middle compromise with a massive storm. Hopes surge.

Then, it starts to look muddy.

PSUHoff weighs in to say that with better spacing it would be two nice events, but that unfortunately the worry is that they are too close together and interfere with the development of each.

That ends up being right and we get flurries on Friday and gray skies on Sunday and see reports from the Carolinas of getting smoked in the first event and the Poconos in the second event. 

 

[Weather Will]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For the record - I recognize this from past winters.

Two waves - people get invested in one, then the other, then a why not both hope sets in.

It looks promising for one, then the other, then magically, a shift to a middle compromise with a massive storm. Hopes surge.

Then, it starts to look muddy.

PSUHoff weighs in to say that with better spacing it would be two nice events, but that unfortunately the worry is that they are too close together and interfere with the development of each.

That ends up being right and we get flurries on Friday and gray skies on Sunday and see reports from the Carolinas of getting smoked in the first event and the Poconos in the second event. 

 

Yup!  WB 6Z GEFS through Day 13 says it all:

[Eskimo Joe]

From a WPC met:

 

 

[Weather Will]

I am not saying GEFS is right...hopefully we will be tracking a threat by the end of this weekend.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For the record - I recognize this from past winters.

Two waves - people get invested in one, then the other, then a why not both hope sets in.

It looks promising for one, then the other, then magically, a shift to a middle compromise with a massive storm. Hopes surge.

Then, it starts to look muddy.

PSUHoff weighs in to say that with better spacing it would be two nice events, but that unfortunately the worry is that they are too close together and interfere with the development of each.

That ends up being right and we get flurries on Friday and gray skies on Sunday and see reports from the Carolinas of getting smoked in the first event and the Poconos in the second event. 

 

Dont forget after those fails I chime in and state how much I loathe this hobby. Ji then cancels winter for the 22nd time, Weather53 says see I told you we are kicking the can again, mitch tells us he had a hunch January was toast, Terpeast says he has concerns for Feb being we are in a Nina but there is hope, Randy calls us nuts and tells Chuck to sybau, aldi22 says we are dumb, Maestrobjwa tells us hes learning new stuff every day, winter warlock replies to each post with 'lol' or 'lmao', then PSU posts a 3 page diatribe on how he hopes this isnt the new norm. 

Yeah, I think thats the usual pattern iirc. 

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont forget after those fails I chime in and state how much I loathe this hobby. Ji then cancels winter for the 22nd time, Weather53 says see I told you we are kicking the can again, mitch tells us he had a hunch January was toast, Terpeast says he has concerns for Feb being we are in a Nina but there is hope, Randy calls us nuts and tells Chuck to sybau, aldi22 says we are dumb, Maestrobjwa tells us hes learning new stuff every day, winter warlock replies to each post with 'lol' or 'lmao', then PSU posts a 3 page diatribe on how he hopes this isnt the new norm. 

Yeah, I think thats the usual pattern iirc. 

this is the most accurate thing ever lol

but 95% of people here have no idea what sybau means lol

[Eskimo Joe]

I like this trend on the Euro

 

 

[bncho]

cool trend

[Eskimo Joe]

Not only has the west coast ridge trended sharper on the EPC, it's also trended stronger. Good to see.

[dallen7908]

4th straight post mentioning/showing a positive trend? 

[Chris78]

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yup!  WB 6Z GEFS through Day 13 says it all:

Lol the differnce between the blues and dark grey's is literally. 1 to .3. That map makes it look worse than it is. 

Would I like it to be full of purples and pinks for us? Sure but another few 10ths of an inch of snow and the entire area would be in the "blue"

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

35 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dont forget after those fails I chime in and state how much I loathe this hobby. Ji then cancels winter for the 22nd time, Weather53 says see I told you we are kicking the can again, mitch tells us he had a hunch January was toast, Terpeast says he has concerns for Feb being we are in a Nina but there is hope, Randy calls us nuts and tells Chuck to sybau, aldi22 says we are dumb, Maestrobjwa tells us hes learning new stuff every day, winter warlock replies to each post with 'lol' or 'lmao', then PSU posts a 3 page diatribe on how he hopes this isnt the new norm. 

Yeah, I think thats the usual pattern iirc. 

It's the AIAmWx model!  Nearly 100% accurate every winter and actually doesn't require "AI" per se!!!  The only slight modification is that Ji canceling winter for the "22nd time" is a bit underdone, he usually is at that point by Halloween!  Oh, and also...we then get a "surprise" moderate or somewhat better storm at the very end of February or first part of March to kind of salvage things, but a lot of people go "meh, March snows suck because they're gone in 2 days anyhow!"

[ravensrule]

40 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Yup!  WB 6Z GEFS through Day 13 says it all:

Have you and Mitch gotten married?. Retirement hasn’t been good for either of you. 

[Maestrobjwa]

41 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

From a WPC met:

 

 

Now I don't quite remember...when's the last time we had a trough that deep over us in a nina?

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

4th straight post mentioning/showing a positive trend? 

Oh I like that graph.