January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[frd]

7 minutes ago, mappy said:

This thread never disappoints in the wtf department lol

A rollercoaster of highs and lows. 

[mappy]

Just now, frd said:

A rollercoaster of highs and lows. 

Wouldn’t have it any other way 

[Ji]

Last year at this time we were seeing 8-12 inches in the ensemble mean for 2 weeks out

This year…this is something you see in the worst of winters

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Last year at this time we were seeing 8-12 inches in the ensemble mean for 2 weeks out

This year…this is something you see in the worst of winters

Dude get some sleep

[aldie 22]

The simple fact that the forecast basically changes every 6-12 hours should make you take a step back and breathe. Now if every run on every model starts showing the same thing then by all means hyperventilate but even then it still warrants a side eye unless it shows the same thing several runs in a row, to my knowledge that hasn’t happened yet good or bad. And to the delayed fellow...nothing is delayed if its just a forecast and hasn't happened yet and clearly back in your day and today trying to nail down a specific date is just guesswork and for fun although the margin for error has narrowed its still there, the weather could give two shits about a date. Anyway carry on dummies 

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Last year at this time we were seeing 8-12 inches in the ensemble mean for 2 weeks out

This year…this is something you see in the worst of winters

I never recall getting those 8-12" though. 

[Ji]

I never recall getting those 8-12" though. 

We didn’t but areas just to our south and east did . We had snowcover the entire month

[anotherman]

Nothing like going to bed feeling like things are headed in the right direction and waking up to "winter ended."  Hahaha.

[IronTy]

Second half of January is gonna be rockin'!

[Ji]

There is a reason I am obsessed with digital blue. If it’s not showing up on the maps, it’s not gonna show up in your yard.

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

There is a reason I am obsessed with digital blue. If it’s not showing up on the maps, it’s not gonna show up in your yard.

I get what you’re saying, but looking for it beyond 180 hours is almost always going to end in disappointment. 

[Ji]

I get what you’re saying, but looking for it beyond 180 hours is almost always going to end in disappointment. 

Not really. If the pattern supports it…they will show up regularly

[Dabuckeyes]

Is there a 30 day snooze button? Asking for a friend…

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Fucking hell

It gets worse every day.  That’s why I barely come here anymore.  We live in a region where it doesn’t snow or stay cold from December to March. Go figure. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

This thread never disappoints in the wtf department lol

I hate it here.  Grown ass adults mind you. 

[Lowershoresadness]

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here.  Grown ass adults mind you. 

please make another Hitler vid showing your disdain for this place

[TSSN+]

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here.  Grown ass adults mind you. 

Mentally immature haha 

[MDSnow93]

35 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here.  Grown ass adults mind you. 

Are we sure about that?

[Blizzard of 93]

What exactly am I supposed to be upset about this morning…?

The better workable pattern is moving up closer in time. 
Here are the day 8 to 13 looks for the 5 day period on the 0z EPS, 6z AI EPS & 6z GEFS. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What exactly am I supposed to be upset about this morning…?

The models flip flopped at 200/300 hrs again and the inevitable cliff jumping returned. 

[H2O]

49 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here.  Grown ass adults mind you. 

I’ve given up. This place during winter is just no fun anymore. We have been told that people are supposed to be “allowed” to vent their feelings. That moderating it makes it worse and it’s mean to the feelings of those that want to vent. And trying to tell the whiners to stop is bad too. 
 

So now the whiners have won and fill threads like this with their constant bitching and griping every 5 hours. The ones that help with good posts now post less. The ones that make it fun now post less. 15 years of being here and it is the least enjoyable as it’s ever been. 
 

Call me when a threat gets to 3 days out. Only then is it worth the time to look

[baldereagle]

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It gets worse every day.  That’s why I barely come here anymore.  We live in a region where it doesn’t snow or stay cold from December to March. Go figure. 

    As far as I can discern, your predominant absence and that of your biting wit are missed by all about as much as anyone else who comes here. Or perhaps it's just the absence of biting.

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, baldereagle said:

    As far as I can discern, your predominant absence and that of your biting wit are missed by all about as much as anyone else who comes here. Or perhaps it's just the absence of biting.

I get being bummed out it’s not gonna snow.  We all like snow, that’s why we’re here for the most part.  But chronic bitching just gets old.  I don’t mind venting, no complaints there.  But ad nauseam, it just sucks the fun out of the place.  It’s hard being patient, but what the fuck us can folks do?

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I get being bummed out it’s not gonna snow.  We all like snow, that’s why we’re here for the most part.  But chronic bitching just gets old.  I don’t mind venting, no complaints there.  But ad nauseam, it just sucks the fun out of the place.  It’s hard being patient, but what the fuck us can folks do?

Chuck likes SE ridges 

[bncho]

On 12/30/2025 at 4:07 PM, GaWx said:

 This was released by BAMwx:

 

 Thoughts? I’m going to need to research this myself to feel comfy with BAMwx’s idea of the highly counterintuitive idea of a very cold E US on average during La Niña (-AAM) Jan phase 6 periods. They’re saying this probably because GEFS is forecasting phase 6 going into mid-Jan as per my earlier MJO forecast post. I can do the analysis but it will take time. I’m planning to look at actual temp anoms for a city like ATL, Chat., Nashville, or GSP that’s in the heart of the coldest (pink) for all phase 6 days during Jan since 1975. Actually anyone can do it but one needs lots of time to do this.

In the meantime, I’ll continue to root for weak to moderate 8-1-2 over 6 or even 7.

@donsutherland1@bluewave

 

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Unfortunately, MJO is now forecasted into Phase 6 mid month.  Until it goes through it, not much hope for a good pattern.  This was not expected by any of the snowy, cold prognosticators even a week ago.

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I hate it here.  Grown ass adults mind you. 

Not sure they’re all adults tbh

[Ji]

The models flip flopped at 200/300 hrs again and the inevitable cliff jumping returned. 

They didn’t really flop. They’re just not showing any snow.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I get being bummed out it’s not gonna snow.  We all like snow, that’s why we’re here for the most part.  But chronic bitching just gets old.  I don’t mind venting, no complaints there.  But ad nauseam, it just sucks the fun out of the place.  It’s hard being patient, but what the fuck us can folks do?

Exactly, I agree.  Yeah, we all get a bit frustrated or disappointed when there's nothing much specific on the horizon in terms of snow events.  Or when the models go all over the place, creating the inevitable mood swings.  And even a bit of venting is OK.  However, as you say, the constant bitching with page after page of the same people whining that "it's over!!!" gets really old and detracts from the actual discussion.

Can people still be five-posted (as has been done in storm threads upon occasion)?  Like if someone posts a bunch of whiny BS and nothing more several times succession in any of the discussion threads (medium range or for specific events), they get five-posted for awhile.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Looking at 240hr+ operational models, etc and expecting it to be correct is the peoples problems lol. If learned anything the last few years models stuggle till inside 120 and even then they have had issues inside that. 

Yeah I reeeaaallly don't think anybody should be cliff-jumping over hr360. Not after what we saw all last month, and even over the last couple of days. Fact is we just don't know...I'd suggest some spend less time here and less time model to model until we have an actual threat to track.

[Imgoinhungry]

There is a reason I am obsessed with digital blue. If it’s not showing up on the maps, it’s not gonna show up in your yard.

Someone argued with me a while back that this does happen… we go from no snow on the models to snow. I dont think i have seen it? . However, we always lose digital snow.


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