January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not much. All light. Maybe 3 inches lol?

This is Pivotal.  I mean, wtf?

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS AI.... all of the hits are  at least 11 days away so hopefully we will something to track by the end of NEXT weekend....

[Cobalt]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EURO AI keeps throwing snow our way after the 12th....its like a lake affect band that never stops

Euro AI Ensemble features BN 850 temperatures from hour 228 through the end of the run. Its accuracy at range was dubious during the overwhelming -WPO regime, but perhaps this will be a better test for it. 

[Ji]

This is Pivotal.  I mean, wtf?

Stop subscribing to crappy maps that don’t show snow and cold

[Ji]

Euro AI Ensemble features BN 850 temperatures from hour 228 through the end of the run. Its accuracy at range was dubious during the overwhelming -WPO regime, but perhaps this will be a better test for it. 

Pros seem to think it was the best performing ensemble model

[Ji]

WB 18Z EPS AI.... all of the hits are  at least 11 days away so hopefully we will something to track by the end of NEXT weekend....

That’s a lot hecs dude

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I'm kind of concerned about the end of the 18z GEFS in what is suppose to be our colder time.. the N. Pacific High pressure extends south and west, giving us more -PNA. The Atlantic has a south-based +NAO. Thankfully it has time to change, as other forecasting agencies and long range products are showing more of a 500mb pattern favorable for cold. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Stop subscribing to crappy maps that don’t show snow and cold

Shows basically nada on WxBell too, not that it matters at range 

[Ji]

Shows basically nada on WxBell too, not that it matters at range 

Sorry was looking at ensembles

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

Pros seem to think it was the best performing ensemble model

Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3

[Ji]

Maybe I wouldn’t say “the best” but it did very well. Top 3

lol there is only like 3-4

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol there is only like 3-4

More than that. 

[wxdude64]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

the EURO AI keeps throwing snow our way after the 12th....its like a lake affect band that never stops

Then @dailylurker and @katabatic won't have to travel so far!

[87storms]

How’s February looking?

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

More than that. 

From the NE forum:

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

 

[Ji]

 

Wow

[EastCoast NPZ]

16 minutes ago, 87storms said:

How’s February looking?

Epic

[bncho]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From the NE forum:

 

so it’s shit vs shittier lol

[bncho]

On 12/26/2025 at 7:47 PM, bncho said:

Philly doesn’t have the passion, half of the  NYC forum is arguing, and neither have the knowledgeable posters. NE has them but if it isn’t snowing in Boston 90% don’t even bother, and the SE is just inactive. We have fostered a supportive community and we live and die together.

really starting to regret this post after the last few days 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here’s the day 10 to 15 AI Euro Ensemble look & snow for the period.

[Ji]

really starting to regret this post after the last few days 

You probably regret 80% of your posts

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From the NE forum:

 

Looks like my high school GPA by semester.

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From the NE forum:

 

Lol GFS at the bottom ... Figured that lol

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Lol GFS at the bottom ... Figured that lol

*pretend shocked face*

[Heisy]

Let’s get Anafrontal

This is really close to a redeveloped anafront

You see the northern side of the front pushing farther E, while the energy at the base of the trough is trying to redevelop. Whats a winter without an Anafront?




.

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

*pretend shocked face*

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS has a nice look Day 10 - temps are a little warm at the surface but verbatim it spits out a T-2” snow for favored spots 

Hopefully it’s a real window and we’re back to discrete tracking in a few days!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS has a nice look Day 10 - temps are a little warm at the surface but verbatim it spits out a T-2” snow for favored spots 

Hopefully it’s a real window and we’re back to discrete tracking in a few days!

Mid month is the window. See my previous post(or the one before that i cant remember lol). I didn't look at the AI tools, just the conventional Ens guidance. Signal is there on all 3. No guarantees ofc.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This has to be the most boring Winter I've experienced model tracking-wise. The southern stream is dead and we are in an "in between" pattern all the time. At least when it's warm that's exciting because it's one side of a wave. This is just endless nothingness. I guess I should be thankful for the one storm in early Dec. 

[CAPE]

44 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS has a nice look Day 10 - temps are a little warm at the surface but verbatim it spits out a T-2” snow for favored spots 

Hopefully it’s a real window and we’re back to discrete tracking in a few days!

Close to the same timeframe- on the GEFS ens mean it looks like a trailing wave with the previous lakes cutter moving towards the 50-50 region and upper ridging over Baffin- not an actual block, more transient in nature but can still work with timing. Verbatim there is snow for the region on the mean here.