January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS seems on its own right now. 

Yea, I don't think anyone should sweat that. If we can get that N stream injection to gain some legs through tomorrow it would be very reassuring for a large scale heavy event....eventual meso struggles be damned.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

See that’s why I like you , anyways exciting times ahead. 

All good. Hopefully trends keep coming.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Will be interesting to see AIFS trends  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Eric Webb saw Scott’s post in here and doubled down lmao.. he definitely is on here , should be a destructive snow or ice storm in his old stomping grounds 

[ROOSTA]

Storm of the Winter Season?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have often wondered how to get around those mesoscale porks... I know one way is an H85 firehose, which we won't have...but I think the other way is to get intense H7 deformation bodily over the area.....Jan 2015 pulled it off. Jan 2005 kind of did.

[weathafella]

Really PD2 like per my memory.  Massive moisture plume correcting north in the final 3 days.  To be fair, everyone from DC-BOS got the goods-as in 1-2 feet.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

Really PD2 like per my memory.  Massive moisture plume correcting north in the final 3 days.  To be fair, everyone from DC-BOS got the goods-as in 1-2 feet.

The events like that are definitely prone to the screw jobs....just a weak low with ton of overrunning...had a bad screw job, but yea...everyone was around 1', at least.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS seems on its own right now. 

Yeah, I was just gonna type that.  heh

that said, there's a lot depending on the N/stream orientation in this - it's almost purely a geometry problem, really.  If the vectors post the elbow of the N/stream are oriented W-E ...we're fucked.  If it's even 15 deg headed N of due E we're probably getting fuzzy chalk dust snow up to HFD... go up from there. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Eric Webb saw Scott’s post in here and doubled down lmao.. he definitely is on here , should be a destructive snow or ice storm in his old stomping grounds 

Wish he had the balls to make an account and post.

[CCHurricane]

4 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for Southern New England today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks.

Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the obs thread for it. 

16.5" for Barnstable, MA

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Eric Webb saw Scott’s post in here and doubled down lmao.. he definitely is on here , should be a destructive snow or ice storm in his old stomping grounds 

Wait a minute, maybe he's the Pope!!!?? Lol

[The 4 Seasons]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie

Thank you for posting this, because i felt like i was being gaslit by the UKMET. I saw it come out fully for 12Z then i went back to check and only 6z was there. Now like 10 minutes later its coming out again? What the hell is happening, am i going crazy?

[ineedsnow]

please please no thread until atleast tomorrow!

[SouthCoastMA]

EuroAI similar, maybe a tick faster? Thought at first it would be south

[The 4 Seasons]

UKMET is out to 126hrs again! It's groundhog day.

[weathafella]

Uncle is a pretty big hit considering its propensity to drink before Noon.

[UnitedWx]

40 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That was chap stick

Tinted?

[Fozz]

23 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Really PD2 like per my memory.  Massive moisture plume correcting north in the final 3 days.  To be fair, everyone from DC-BOS got the goods-as in 1-2 feet.

PDII was the first HECS that I remember with any clarity. I was a tiny child in 1996 but I tracked everything in 02-03 all the way through.

I’ve been expecting this weekend storm to go up the coast all along, but yesterday unnerved me a bit. Hopefully the good trend continues.

[CoastalWx]

I do not like the 500 evolution at all on euro AI and somehow it didn’t matter. Almost like that northern Stream short wave was helping to sling precip back? I don’t know, though I did not expect that solution that seemed weird to me. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

UKMET is out to 126hrs again! It's groundhog day.

whatever's the culprit aside, that's a major event in and off itself

It's maximizing potential given structure.   Perfect E inflow 850mb, over a 920 mb ENE frigid air mass, with 700-500 mb flow running up SW-->NE over a steep isentropic surface

You could produce a foot of snow out of a 1010 mb low and one closed isobar with that.  geez.  

[weathafella]

The AIs again have a more robust sne solution vs the ops.  Although we’re still waiting for the euro although cmc is pretty solid.   Are the Canadians finally on a heater considering they did pretty well for Sunday nights event over MLK weekend?

[Spanks45]

 

21 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Eric Webb saw Scott’s post in here and doubled down lmao.. he definitely is on here , should be a destructive snow or ice storm in his old stomping grounds 

We are at the point in most winter system potentials where certain posters/meteorologists have already decided what will happen. So, for example....if they have decided this is not a SNE system, they will cherry pick the model that backs their forecast regardless of what consensus is. It is hard to distinguish it from true forecasting or just straight trolling. It goes both ways too....always adds some flavor or angst to the discussion. 

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Thank you for posting this, because i felt like i was being gaslit by the UKMET. I saw it come out fully for 12Z then i went back to check and only 6z was there. Now like 10 minutes later its coming out again? What the hell is happening, am i going crazy?

Beer?

[Lucy Pull]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do not like the 500 evolution at all on euro AI and somehow it didn’t matter. Almost like that northern Stream short wave was helping to sling precip back? I don’t know, though I did not expect that solution that seemed weird to me. 

It’s waffling quite a lot at H5 the past few runs. Results are similar to an extent but I definitely like 06z H5 for a bigger event.

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

It’s waffling quite a lot at H5 the past few runs. Results are similar to an extent but I definitely like 06z H5 for a bigger event.

Yeah, I did not like the 12z look. 

[Zeus]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do not like the 500 evolution at all on euro AI and somehow it didn’t matter. Almost like that northern Stream short wave was helping to sling precip back? I don’t know, though I did not expect that solution that seemed weird to me. 

Yeah, not crazy about the 12z Euro AI look versus the 06z Euro Op/AI look. But don't we always have just the most fun on a will she/won't she phase at -- what -- four days out?

Room for improvement, room for disappointment. Budget for edibles.

[The 4 Seasons]

18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

whatever's the culprit aside, that's a major event ... 

It's maximizing potential given structure.   Perfect E inflow over a NE 850, with 700-500 mb flow running up and over a steep isentropic surface, in a high ratio cryo column.  

You could produce a foot of snow out of a 1010 mb low and one closed isobar with that.  geez.  

Yeah, i can see why comparisons are being made to PDII..another 1008mb low off the delmarva that produced 1-2 feet

Not often you see these type of setups

Edit: Not saying or implying this is whats coming just noting the overall theme of such a system

 

[weatherwiz]

That is gotta be closing in on one of the most devastating ice storms on record for parts of the mid-Atlantic there into GA where they CAD well. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

That is gotta be closing in on one of the most devastating ice storms on record for parts of the mid-Atlantic there into GA where they CAD well. 

Hopefully the rest of the trees at Augusta are gone.