mahk_webstah Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago The conversation is manageable now in the main thread, but I think we actually should start a storm thread tomorrow if it still looks like a viable threat between the 15th and 19th. This would separate the discussion into what might be happening in the short term and then also in the post January 20 period which is interesting in itself 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Def escaped torch everywhere in the northeast . Just a week of slightly AN 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Def escaped torch everywhere in the northeast . Just a week of slightly AN More than slightly. 40s for you are +10 for a high. But certainly well below January thaw levels which when I conjure in my mind I think 55+ 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago the +PNA ridge in and of itself argues for a coastal... that's 2.5 sigma over ID, nearly ideal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 2 hours ago, weathafella said: Between that and the July 66 manning the hot grill which was worse? 7/3/66 takes (bakes?) the cake. The coil thermometer at the end of the counter, 10-12 feet from the grill, reached about 140 - scale only reached 120 and the needle was well beyond that line. I'm better off NOT knowing how hot it next to the grill. In 1977 I could climb down to the 1st floor in 20 seconds. In 1966 I was behind the counter all day. Closing time was 8 PM but people were still pouring in 15 minutes later, so I went on the loudspeaker to say we were closed but would serve all who were already inside the lodge. (Got a bit of flack from the park supervisor but he soon understood.) At that time, I'd never had a cup of hot coffee despite brewing the stuff in the 50-cup urn. Ice tea demand went up and down with the temp; coffee demand went up and down by how many people came thru the gate. Could not understand then but later learned the joy of hot coffee in all weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the +PNA ridge in and of itself argues for a coastal... that's 2.5 sigma over ID, nearly ideal Also useful to point out that the bulging into Manitoba is really critical there. That axial location near Frisco is traditionally too far west, but the idiosyncrasy of that arm rotating S on the heals of the 'Lakes trough is completing the wave space's couplet ...which transitively is favorable for maintaining amplitude that far E of the "real" ridge axis. Synoptic interpretation is a lot harder than folks realize. Just seeing where ridges and troughs are isn't the half of it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Also useful to point out that the bulging into Manitoba is really critical there. That axial location near Frisco is traditionally too far west, but the idiosyncrasy of that arm rotating S on the heals of the 'Lakes trough is completely the wave couplet ...which transitively is favorable for maintaining amplitude that far E of the "real" ridge axis. Synoptic interpretation is a lot harder than folks realize. Just seeing where ridges and troughs are isn't the half of it. absolutely, allows that NS piece over the Lakes to come in at a good angle... that's why the GFS is as amped as it is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago If AN seasons are working their back to us (like I think they are) then these are the types of “wins” in the mid range we need in order to get there. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If AN seasons are working their back to us (like I think they are) then these are the types of “wins” in the mid range we need in order to get there. These are also the types of wins we’d get in the 2010s constantly. Trends that helped us so often in the medium range instead of trending to crap. But when you’re going cold like we’ve been, very few of these work out. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Me after the trends we saw at 12z today. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago maybe coming in slightly less amped this run... but still a deep sharp trough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago heh, actually ends up deeper by a couple dm ( 500 mb hgts) when it closes off there ...120 or so hrs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe coming in slightly less amped this run... but still a deep sharp trough Yea. Should be a good hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago wow...this is going to be a long duration nor'easter with probably upper tier impact scenarios in that solution... it's only 120 hrs and already moderate to hvy snow is exploded from DCA BOS and the lows about to get captured still ... may be a season definer ... as is, in this depiction, it would be for the DCA-PHL crew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Probably will be LBSW but good spot at d6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: maybe coming in slightly less amped this run... but still a deep sharp trough yeah, not as exotic as 12z but still a bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago When was the last time we saw a system that wasn't flying 1000 mph off the coast? Feels like this one might be big for someone, who? tbd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Oh that's interesting... okay, little tamer thereafter... It appears the b-c axis may be disconnected from this deep layer evolution. Probably too far E frankly... mm, I think that recovers faster with the native g-string and all that. It's just fuzzy in the model at this range - probably. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Def escaped torch everywhere in the northeast . Just a week of slightly AN BDL, BOS, and ORH are all AN after today. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago so ... because of that, the low actually doesn't deepen very much beyond that 120 period ... stuff to iron still ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VivaManchVegas Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago we hit 48.2 last night. Today was around 47. Cold air draining in for a cold rain. Dec 19th we broke 50. have to go back into November to see that again. December was cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Looks a lot worse at the surface than 12z. I don’t think that’s really debatable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, not as exotic as 12z but still a bomb I mean, sensible weather went from 12-18” in SNE to 2-4”. That’s a pretty big difference, regardless of upper air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I mean, sensible weather went from 12-18” in SNE to 2-4”. That’s a pretty big difference, regardless of upper air 12z surface was fantasy anyway 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Got a bit squashed this run. This is prob the type of system that wont be that stable until we’re inside 100 hours. It’s an imperfect setup with a bunch of moving parts…why it’s still somewhat of a longshot to deliver big snows (not talking a 1-3/2-4 type deal) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, not as exotic as 12z but still a bomb Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Me after the trends we saw at 12z today. Club closed at 18z 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. Should be a good hit. Day 6? It’s coming in Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: 12z surface was fantasy anyway Right. Still think people need to treat this with extreme caution. Likely will be not much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 18 minutes ago, dendrite said: BDL, BOS, and ORH are all AN after today. Meh. So it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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