January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[wx2fish]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Like I said last night though…the midnight high can net you 2 days of 50° if the fropa timing is right. Let’s butcher those negative anomalies with some bush league tactics.

We know he hates fake cold. What about fake warmth? 

[CoastalWx]

12z GFS  is close to something nice but it’s the same crap we’ve seen with just troughs  folding over each other and fast Northwest flow out of Canada.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

We know he hates fake cold. What about fake warmth? 

It is fake because I slept through it.

[dendrite]

Just now, wx2fish said:

We know he hates fake cold. What about fake warmth? 

I can’t wait to call his 100ft deep seabreezes fake this spring.

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Like I said last night though…the midnight high can net you 2 days of 50° if the fropa timing is right. Let’s butcher those negative anomalies with some bush league tactics.

FAKE.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The best potential for a larger storm is probably that mid-month period. Beyond mid-month, however, the pattern may become much more active...maybe with SWFE's given we may be battling the SE ridge...which may not be a bad thing given we'll be into peak climo. Not totally sold on the SE ridge becoming as stout as advertised though which would work into our favor. We may not get into deep cold, but we'll have deep cold available nearby so if we can tug a storm track a bit south/east we can easily pull into it

the 0Z operation Euro and both 0 and 6Z GFS operational runs abandoned the more distant -EPO we were discussing - which was always contingent upon the entire technological ens ambit actually not being full of shit. I dunno. Christ 

Figure for them being right with all that weight but with doling out of uncertainties seemingly at an all time embarrassment of riches maybe is all a red herring - starting to dream of Feb 8th’s annual solar hole escape date …

Just issue fatigue talking …

Anyway, just thought I’d point out that oddity about the op versions. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance seems to have two shortwaves coming down near mid-month that we can sort of follow now....but that can obviously change at this lead time. The second one looks better to me....which would prob be in the 1/15-1/17 time range (timing varies by model guidance and cycle)....the first one looks like it's struggling with wave spacing and also antecedent airmass is poorer. So if we happen to grab anything out of the 1/13-1/14 period, it's pure gravy IMHO. 

I was hopeful for that first wave but I've become a bit less enthused, however, I am hoping that it may somewhat help set the stage for better potential with the second shortwave...there's a quite a bit of energy that will be in play there

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

12 ZGFS is close to something nice but it’s the same crap we’ve seen with just troughs  folding over each other and fast Northwest flow out of Canada.

it is also showing a snowstorm in the SE region, we know that will find someway of verifying.....

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the 0Z operation Euro and both 0 and 6Z GFS operational runs abandoned the more distant -EPO we weee discussing - which was always contingent upon the entire technological ens ambit actually not being full of shit. I dunno. Christ 

Figure for their being wrong with all that weight but with doling out of uncertainties seemingly at an all time embarrassment of riches maybe is all a red herring - starting to dream of Feb 8th’s annual solar hole escape date …

Just issue fatigue talking …

Anyway, just thought I’d point out that oddity about the op versions. 

Yup its been wild how drastically we've seen guidance alter within the medium-to-long range...clearly there is still a struggle with fully grasping the PAC. I also wonder if there is some residual feedback from the monster -PDO we had late summer...obviously not going to impact the models but moreso how the PAC is evolving in real time

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup its been wild how drastically we've seen guidance alter within the medium-to-long range...clearly there is still a struggle with fully grasping the PAC. I also wonder if there is some residual feedback from the monster -PDO we had late summer...obviously not going to impact the models but moreso how the PAC is evolving in real time

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies

The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else

Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don’t think so… The PDO doesn’t directly force the week to week pattern tendencies

The PDO is largely a sea surface temperature signal and it’s connected to wind surface stressing over extended periods. I don’t think there’s a lot of proof that there’s a direct physical connection to forcing the pattern. I think the forcing is going in the other direction and maybe there’s a feedback given enough time, but the PDO is an indicator for what the atmosphere has been doing to effect the temperature distribution more than anything else

Any other formal studies or whatever, notwithstanding

Right...the PDO is more a reflection of the antecedent pattern that can feedback somewhat if it persists long enough.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian trying for the 15th, but it’s the Canadian. Even a weak system after that.
 

for the love of God, just something break  right for once.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most guidance seems to have two shortwaves coming down near mid-month that we can sort of follow now....but that can obviously change at this lead time. The second one looks better to me....which would prob be in the 1/15-1/17 time range (timing varies by model guidance and cycle)....the first one looks like it's struggling with wave spacing and also antecedent airmass is poorer. So if we happen to grab anything out of the 1/13-1/14 period, it's pure gravy IMHO. 

How can anything in mid January, with most people below normal for snow, be considered pure gravy? IMO, we are wasting peak climo snow season for many currently. 
 

if we have any shot at anything resembling a normal season, we need changes soon, and not just back to cold temps and 1/2” clippers 

[SouthCoastMA]

Long range GFS OP with the PV sitting over northern Maine..shreddola city if that happened. Cold, dark times

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian trying for the 15th, but it’s the Canadian. Even a weak system after that.
 

for the love of God, just something break  right for once.

Yeah I thought the Canadian had a good setup for a few chances. If only

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

How can anything in mid January, with most people below normal for snow, be considered pure gravy? IMO, we are wasting peak climo snow season for many currently. 
 

if we have any shot at anything resembling a normal season, we need changes soon, and not just back to cold temps and 1/2” clippers 

gravy in the sense that the signal for anything significant from that is diminishing so if it happens to work out its a bonus. 

[dryslot]

GFS misses with a coastal on the 16th but has something on the 18th now.

[ma blizzard]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Long range GFS OP with the PV sitting over northern Maine..shreddola city if that happened. Cold, dark times

lets melt all the snow before the next Arctic blast .. sounds about right  

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, TheMainer said:

One of my rox mounts actually did break and I had to zip tie to get home with it, had almost 6,000 miles of abuse and then a smooth ride with the wife at 50-60 mph with no bumps and it breaks 

I do appreciate the Maine insight you have, definitely a different world up here than other areas. Hope you guys do alright down there too, trends look promising. You should have good riding I imagine with the snow the past few days and what's coming this weekend. We need a good season after these past 5 disappointments.

Haven't heard any traffic on the club trail thru our woodlot, though I might've missed some.  Had 12" at the stake this morning, but the northerly 100 yards of trail on us require 15-18" of dense pack to avoid having the groomer clanging on the rocks. 

[Typhoon Tip]

As influential posters it is probably equally annoying for us to swing between tones of optimism and then despair, inside the same hour LOL buuut...

Re the GFS operational.  I do like the position of the western ridge better in this run than the previous.

Previous left ... new position right

That S/E repositioning may seem subtle but it is crucially important/sensitive in how the wave spacing behaves wrt S/Ws ejected down stream. The subtly more compressed isohypses along the Rockies S flow on the right is also an homage to attempting a ridge farther S/E. 

You don't ( as winter even enthusiasts ..) want to see the left variant of the +PNA.  ... As much. I mean I'm sure in the last 3,000,000 years of eastern N/A there's been event with the left version... but excluding the rarefied scenarios.   

Anyway, bump that a little more and it would be better. 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

GFS misses with a coastal on the 16th but has something on the 18th now.

And Ray's favorite, a Miller A, developing later on. Just fantasy, but funny stuff. Would surely crush the south/Mid Atlantic

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

And Ray's favorite, a Miller A, developing later on. Just fantasy, but funny stuff. Will surely crush the south/Mid Atlantic

Yup, 16th is a Miller A that's wide right.

[mahk_webstah]

Looks like there will be storms over the next few weeks but who knows who does best.

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm almost positive I'm going to have some remarks about this post, but I've said it before and I'll say it again, I really do like this particular guy. To me. He's not one of those social media idiots who have no clue about meteorology. This guy is the real deal. That's just my opinion. 

I really like what he has to say and what he's been saying for the last 2 months and he hasn't wavered yet. Again, really not worried about the comments. I'll get about this, just think it's some real good info and something to to really consider.

[dendrite]

[Typhoon Tip]

Why do we keep referencing other people that do not appear to be a member and/or contributor in here ?

not sure what the purpose of that is for. 

are we supposed be oohing and in awe of their content?   or are we supposed to be impressed that you know this person

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm almost positive I'm going to have some remarks about this post, but I've said it before and I'll say it again, I really do like this particular guy. To me. He's not one of those social media idiots who have no clue about meteorology. This guy is the real deal. That's just my opinion. 

I really like what he has to say and what he's been saying for the last 2 months and he hasn't wavered yet. Again, really not worried about the comments. I'll get about this, just think it's some real good info and something to to really consider.

I find him nauseating....he's always hyper-defensive and I'm quite certain his mid-January storm potential will go down the toilet.

[SouthCoastMA]

The name itself is clickbait, not a good start

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The name itself is clickbait, not a good start

It’s completely clickbait lol. People are really digging to the bottom of the barrel to find some fake positivity 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I find him nauseating....he's always hyper-defensive and I'm quite certain his mid-January storm potential will go down the toilet.

People only like him because it’s always positive all the time. Nobody on this forum likes reality.