RU848789 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 20 minutes ago, Jt17 said: Does the blend of models include AI models too? . According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate. https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 26 minutes ago, Prue11 said: They’re concerned like many others with suppression Ok, but the NBM is their bible, so if it's showing 6" of snow, the WPC map ought to reflect that IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate. https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM I can't find anything that confirms it but based on what the NBM is showing I'd argue they are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I can't find anything that confirms it but based on what the NBM is showing I'd argue they are not.Yea agreed, this is why I asked. Just looks like the OPs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 26 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: What are Northern Mid-Atlantic and New England in the dark blue for ? its not clear if its the cold or snow or both Cold. Here's the precipitation: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 22 minutes ago, RU848789 said: According to Google AI it does, lol, but none of the links provided showed that, but I may have missed them as the NOAA/NBM model sites are fairly obtuse to navigate. https://www.google.com/search?q=are+AI+models+incorporated+into+the+national+blend+of+models+nbm%3F&sca_esv=19fb1bea8894757c&hl=en&biw=1536&bih=791&aic=0&sxsrf=ANbL-n5dmwLPcf4aXzuAo62-IxWijdkJ8Q%3A1768855885220&ei=TZluaY2UDauw5NoP_M6SKQ&ved=2ahUKEwj7187kvZiSAxUMKVkFHbE0GoIQ0NsOegQIAxAB&uact=5&sclient=gws-wiz-serp&udm=50&fbs=ADc_l-aN0CWEZBOHjofHoaMMDiKp0UJuhqwKhR0QUhF54-6jIZ4fQLFxpd-X3cjBjwn-bveyDdFq6p_1Ihh_Ql-GGwzDrx965YmoBHPdZqjpk_wLcr87EOVDrNef7abUsdy7lRfcH9HduY3ypbiqLxbsL21UWg8kiZoouB9nEp7CN9iwIQTZNErSg2mYdqm_lNuaH6dd_mwj6XsekAu4ZQqdcS9xvsucig&aep=10&ntc=1&mstk=AUtExfCZMemFB51m4S6HuNpB6ZNqrL2MZ9iLPahXcV3f9nftZMz8VEzzsfF-0k2B-q1ClJtpFKAIRs17eCrRjNILMTlVVcVkZxKEKkSoMhND4k9NAAnpyuUD4LpYj0FYBfilE1SzOLm9790fcu7lDVN0EXj4GqfsCsZ4gWiF4lInPSzlkYrVG91NioCgDaQMtGVkmT5DgMkqKzjM6gf9wyLR3ITA6bVj4HTLhWcoHFLcgc6NtdsOzuOvgDfx9jwzswqit5Wm-vtMcmvpe-pBmNjwRnibMNwdPrK5au2jiAlDTHAsX3NbE7ip1N5HIhaT231AxVpgYIQTbV-MGiOCa057HD6O_lwQNMtlvaTR_F7pPSnmk2tr-X0oanP7KbG2ehhxQu1mcgzfpC1lvmY_s41mlOhsLGoCnA6bNQ&csuir=1&mtid=5ZluabyWG7ul5NoP5OeLiQM The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall:Thank you!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Suppose to be really really good northern lights tonight. Problem is these dam clouds came out of nowhere must be sound effect related with the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 January obs and discussions. Thats it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Yey it's snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The NBM does not incorporate the AI guidance. Here's the list for models used for purposes of calculating snowfall: I saw that, too, but thought it was an older source. It should be easier to find this kind of info, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: didnt want to say anything but she's had a particularly bad past year and this just doesnt sound like a good idea lmao Good evening v e . At almost 79 and being alone for the last eight years …… there will always be another weather event but there may never be another her. Insure your flight, as always…… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I saw that, too, but thought it was an older source. It should be easier to find this kind of info, lol. I had to look at the 4.3 updates to see if any new models were added. They weren't. I agree that it should be easier to find this documentation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 The coldest and likely snowiest two-week period of Winter 2025-2026 lies ahead. Arctic air will move into the region tonight. Tomorrow could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. The temperature could stay below 20° in New York City on Saturday. The last time that happened was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (2.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
[email protected] Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Have the models today, backed off the severity of the cold, this weekend and next week? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 15 minutes ago, [email protected] said: Have the models today, backed off the severity of the cold, this weekend and next week? No 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 8 minutes ago, WeatherFox said: No I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend. It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 hour ago, rclab said: Good evening v e . At almost 79 and being alone for the last eight years …… there will always be another weather event but there may never be another her. Insure your flight, as always…… beautifully put! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 18 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend. It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere. The hype machine doesn't end until the middle of April. There's always that mid-february/early march storm, the mid march storm, the moderate event in the beginning of april... still a shot at snow around easter... Every year. I think we got a shot toward the end of next week though. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 On 1/16/2026 at 2:11 AM, snowman19 said: Way out there, but next weekend looks like a possible SWFE. Those normally favor New England but it’s going to be many days before we start to get a clearer picture of what’s going to happen…. What a difference a few days makes, eh? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 1 minute ago, wxman said: What a difference a few days makes, eh? Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Things can change very quickly. We could go from suppression to worrying about sleet in a couple days. Indeed! Would not be surprised...despite everyone saying "it's different" with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Five to six days is way to early for any forecast detail and probability. Though we can have fun tracking the models, chatting and opining here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The coldest and likely snowiest two-week period of Winter 2025-2026 lies ahead. Arctic air will move into the region tonight. Tomorrow could be the coldest day so far this season with highs struggling to reach the lower 20s and lows in the teens in New York City. Suburban areas could see single-digit lows, especially on Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be another unseasonably cold day. An even colder Arctic front will cross the region on Thursday, possibly with some snow flurries or snow showers. A frigid weekend lies ahead. Snow could arrive on Sunday. The temperature could stay below 20° in New York City on Saturday. The last time that happened was January 21, 2025 when the high was 19°. Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter. The SOI was +24.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.066 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 31.4° (2.3° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.2° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. That January mean temperature is sinking faster than cement shoes in the Hudson. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: I am starting to get inquiries from normal family and friends asking me about the storm next weekend. It seems that the hype machine may be warming up and that word of this potential storm has broken containment beyond the nerdosphere. It has past "warming up" it is flaming. Those 360 hour snowfall maps are making the rounds fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Down to 23 here and dropping Coldest air descending onto the upper MId West / G-L 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterweatherlover Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 4 hours ago, wxman said: Indeed! Would not be surprised...despite everyone saying "it's different" with this type of setup. I did say sleet was possible. Rain would be extremely unlikely imo in this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Recent coldest at EWR last 25 years: Bolded 5 and below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 The raw Euro 2m Ts have been running too cold around NYC. It forecast around 11° this morning in NYC. The current temperature is 17°. The raw GFS has been doing better than the Euro. So my guess is that the forecast Euro lows especially around the urban areas from EWR to NYC will be too cold coming up. So closer to 10° this weekend in NYC vs near 0° on the Euro. For some reason the model thinks that NYC should have strong radiational cooling when there is snowcover. We saw this in the past from the OP Euro 2m Ts showing -5° to -10° several years back in. NYC with snow on the ground. But outlying areas with the best radiational cooling will probably be closer to the mark than the urban areas forecast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 20 Share Posted January 20 Hey guys im putting out call for anyone who has season to date snowfall totals for their town up to present. I'll be working on season-to-date updated snowfall maps for the Tri-State today/tomorrow so if anyone has anything you can tag me or pm me, thanks. Also i posted the snowfall totals maps for Jan 18-19th in the thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now