January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro trying, there's multiple phasing and waves running up the east coast. it isn't just one and done. We gotta be patient with this one

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Favorable pattern doesn’t guarantee KU’s

we don't need a ku; they are rare anyway. we just would like some events. 3-6 is fine.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

we don't need a ku; they are rare anyway. we just would like some events. 3-6 is fine.

This.   A few 2-4, 3-6 events would work.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro trying, there's multiple phasing and waves running up the east coast. it isn't just one and done. We gotta be patient with this one

Agree

Favorable pattern coming up. High chance of a coastal with the favorable PNA.

[Brian5671]

52 here with full sun-snowpack going bye bye

[winterwx21]

Euro is FRIGID in the long range too. 

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Too much energy flying around. With a low in the great lakes, nothing is coming up the coast. 

Heard you the first time champ

[Wannabehippie]

I think what a lot of people here forget that you need everything to come together perfectly to get a big snowstorm for the coastal corridor. Cold air in place, storm diving down to the gulf of mexico, picking up moisture, coming up the coast. Or energy from Canada merging with a coastal system to throw snow back in to the big cities (eg Miller A or Miller B systems) It is not easy to get all the pieces in place for a 12"+ system. More likely we are going to get clipper type systems with light amounts, or that might get energized a bit as they approach the coast to give us systems that give us 2" - 8" of snow. 

Not to mention that all of the models have greater degree of error the further out they try to predict. You get a model showing a huge coastal system on one run, and on the next it is suppressed way to the south. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Euro Ensembles Tony?

[eduggs]

For anyone keeping model-score, the UK is very unsupportive of a Thurs-Fri snowstorm at the end of its run. It looks even worse than the GFS.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

For anyone keeping model-score, the UK is very unsupportive of a Thurs-Fri snowstorm at the end of its run. It looks even worse than the GFS.

it doesn't even go that far

[eduggs]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it doesn't even go that far

It does. The trof structure and evolution is very clear at 12z Thurs. That's a squashed, progressively tilted trof. What happens for the next wave for the weekend and beyond is unknown.

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Euro Ensembles Tony?

EPS are better than 0z - you could even say much better. The mean shows light precipitation in the Thurs-Fri timeframe whereas 0z was mostly offshore. Several individual members are moderate hits but the majority are still light or misses.

[WeatherGeek2025]

14 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It does. The trof structure and evolution is very clear at 12z Thurs. That's a squashed, progressively tilted trof. What happens for the next wave for the weekend and beyond is unknown.

it goes to thursday most of the action is supposed to be after thursday!

[North and West]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Icon

I know I'm asking too early, but my reasoning is that I'm due to land at EWR at 2 pm next Friday; what time is this showing?
Better question, when would we have a better, clearer picture on timing?

Yours in lunacy.

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, North and West said:

I know I'm asking too early, but my reasoning is that I'm due to land at EWR at 2 pm next Friday; what time is this showing?
Better question, when would we have a better, clearer picture on timing?

Yours in lunacy.

nobody knows anything yet, it could be sunny or rainy or smowy, by sunday we should know somewhat, by tuesday consensus!

[NEG NAO]

[psv88]

51 off a low of 27. Felt nice!

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, North and West said:

I know I'm asking too early, but my reasoning is that I'm due to land at EWR at 2 pm next Friday; what time is this showing?
Better question, when would we have a better, clearer picture on timing?

Yours in lunacy.

This is still in the long range . A few more days .

[lee59]

53 here today after a low of 28.

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

53 here today after a low of 28.

Yeah made it to low 50s in NYC as well. We’re torching quite well this week. Seems like we’ll be back into colder weather by Monday, 1/12. This will definitively erase our colder than average start to the month 

[eduggs]

The 18z ICON at 120hr isn't going to phase as much of the southern stream into the longwave trof as 12z. Kind of a bummer, but not surprising since it has so little support. It still looks better than the GFS, for example, but it's a little more evidence that the best model outcome is probably wrong.

[RU848789]

Nice increase on the EPS ensembles over the last 48 hours (thru the same end time). We're finally starting to see some snowstorms pop up and disappear, but that's better than nada we've had for awhile.

 

 

[Rjay]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it goes to thursday most of the action is supposed to be after thursday!

Stop. He knows what he's looking at. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

It’s close it’s damn close. But no cigar

[weatherpruf]

3 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

I think what a lot of people here forget that you need everything to come together perfectly to get a big snowstorm for the coastal corridor. Cold air in place, storm diving down to the gulf of mexico, picking up moisture, coming up the coast. Or energy from Canada merging with a coastal system to throw snow back in to the big cities (eg Miller A or Miller B systems) It is not easy to get all the pieces in place for a 12"+ system. More likely we are going to get clipper type systems with light amounts, or that might get energized a bit as they approach the coast to give us systems that give us 2" - 8" of snow. 

Not to mention that all of the models have greater degree of error the further out they try to predict. You get a model showing a huge coastal system on one run, and on the next it is suppressed way to the south. 

think the jan 2005 blizzard was a clipper type system; it was a big snow but not on the level of others, though it did hit cape cod really hard. around 12-18 in most of the region; cold and all snow. 

[Jt17]

It’s close it’s damn close. But no cigar

What you want a week out


.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

9 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

What you want a week out


.

Nothing, it’s right where you want it actually 

[donsutherland1]

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures.

A few showers are possible tomorrow. A more significant rainfall is likely Saturday into Sunday. Then, rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". 

The work week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region tomorrow. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +3.54 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.167 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[NEG NAO]

35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures.

A few showers are possible tomorrow. A more significant rainfall is likely Saturday into Sunday. Then, rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". 

The work week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region tomorrow. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +3.54 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.167 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.5° (-0.2° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

-0.2 below normal temps in other words near normal.  Snowfall ? Anyones guess at this time.........would love to have a snowfall contest