January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[sussexcountyobs]

Got 1/4" of fluff last night. 19F

[bluewave]

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

 

[Rmine1]

25 with another light snow. I can get used to this 

 

moderate snow now 

[Monty]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

everyone get flu vaccines..

No. 

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

 

[IrishRob17]

.3 of leaf blower clean up snow here this morning. 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Enough to be measurable and to have to clean the cars off again. Ill take it, keeps covering up the dirty snow. Even this nuisance stuff is better than most of our previous few years. 
 

dont remember the last time i couldnt take down christmas decorations yet because of the snow. 

Since we're down to just the piles here, I was able to take them down this morning, but frozen while doing so.

Relatedly, for me, a foot of snow total, plus cold, in the lead up to and during the holidays, as we had this year, beats all the snow we can muster from March 1st on.  When I run for president it will be on a platform of lots of snow and cold, but only during meteorological winter.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

 

Thats if you believe any model past 240 hours. Its hard to take them seriously since they have been changing. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

They will be wrong here. Models dont look warm during that timeframe.

[SACRUS]

28 / 18 and partly cloudy pushing to the mid 30s. Cloudds and scattered snow showers and flurries monday before and 4 day warm up Tue - Fri where max temps should get most of the area into the 50s between Thu - Sat. 

Trough back into the northeast 1/11 - 1/19 overall - colder and perhaps more storm / snpw totals tracking. 

Beyond there a bit back and forth to close out the month as it seems now probably near normal to below normal  that period 1/20 - 1/31 and as a whole the month finishes below normal but not as strong as last month.

 

[EastonSN+]

0.75 inches fell overnight Easton CT

 

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

They will be wrong here. Models dont look warm during that timeframe.

The temperatures don't concern me as much as how dry the pattern becomes after the cold returns next Sunday

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 68 (2000)
NYC: 66 (2023)
LGA: 66 (2023)
JFK: 62 (1950)


Lows:

EWR: 1 (1981)
NYC: -3 (1918)
LGA: 4 (1981)
JFK: 3 (2014)

Historical:

 

1641: According to historical records, Mount Parker, a stratovolcano on Mindanao Island in the Philippines, erupted on this day. The eruption caused the formation of a crater lake called Lake Maughan.


1780: A major snowstorm buried George Washington and his troops at their headquarters in Morristown, NJ. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1859: A powerful winter storm across New England buried Hartford, CT under 36 inches of snow and 26 inches at Middletown, CT. 30 inches fell in 12 hours at Goffstown, NH. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1877: The minimum temperature for the date is -3°F. in Washington, DC again today after -3°F yesterday. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
 

1888 - Sacramento, CA, received 3.5 inches of snow, an all-time record for that location. The heaviest snow in recent history was two inches on February 5th in 1976. (4th-5th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1917: A tornado with estimated F3 damage cut a 15-mile path and struck a school at Vireton in Pittsburg County, Oklahoma, killing 16 people. It ranks as the 4th worst school tornado disaster in U.S. history. You can read more about this tornado from the Sweetwater Daily Reporter in Sweetwater, Texas, published on January 10, 1917
The deadliest U.S. tornado struck the Choctaw Indian Baptist School at Vireton, OK; 16 students killed (some carried 100 yards) and 10 injured. The building disintegrated as the teacher (whose jaw was broken) tried to keep the school’s door shut. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

1918: The coldest period of the winter of 1917 and 1918 occurred from December 29th to January 4th. The temperatures for this date were a high of 20 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of +4 degrees Fahrenheit at the captial. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)

1946: A series of tornadoes struck northeast Texas, killing 30 people. The deadliest tornadoes struck near Palestine and Nacogdoches. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1949: A blizzard continued its onslaught across parts of the Rockies and northern Plains but finally began to wane late in the day. By the time it was over, 41 inches of snow had buried Chadron, NE while 30 to 40 inches of snow fell over in and around Cheyenne, WY. Cheyenne was hit hard by 60 hours of snow and near-hurricane force winds. Between 20 and 30 inches was recorded at Laramie, WY. 17 lives were lost in the storm while many were marooned for days due to impassable roads and huge drifts. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971 - A blizzard raged from Kansas to Wisconsin, claiming 27 lives in Iowa. Winds reached 50 mph, and the storm produced up to 20 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1980: On January 4 and 5, 1980 a heavy wet snow fell over eastern Virginia with as much as 18 inches reported at Williamsburg.
Richmond had 1.6 inches of snow on the 4th and 13.3 inches on the 5th for a total of 14.9 inches which was the third largest January snow for Richmond. (Ref. Virginia Weather History)

 

1982 - Milwaukee, WI, was shut down completely as a storm buried the city under 16 inches of snow in 24 hours. It was the worst storm in thirty-five years. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A storm moving off the Pacific Ocean spread wintery weather across the southwestern U.S., with heavy snow extending from southern California to western Wyoming. Up to 15 inches of snow blanketed the mountains of southern California, and rainfall totals in California ranged up to 2.20 inches in the Chino area. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Frigid arctic air invading the central and eastern U.S. left Florida about the only safe refuge from the cold and snow. A storm in the western U.S. soaked Bodega Bay in central California with 3.12 inches of rain. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - Up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of West Virginia, and strong winds in the northeastern U.S. produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero in Maine. Mount Washington NH reported wind gusts to 136 mph along with a temperature of 30 below zero! (National Weather Summary)

1990 - A winter storm moving out of the southwestern U.S. spread heavy snow across Nebraska and Iowa into Wisconsin. Snowfall totals in Nebraska ranged up to 7 inches at Auburn and Tecumseh. Totals in Iowa ranged up to 11 inches at Carlisle. In Iowa, most of the snow fell between midnight and 4 AM. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1992: A low pressure area with sub-tropical characteristics developed explosively over the Gulf Stream waters east of Cape Hatteras, NC and apparently deepened 18 millibars in just 3 hours. The central pressure dropped from 994 (29.35 inches of mercury) to 976 millibars (28.82 inches of mercury) and bottomed out at 968 millibars (28.68 inches of mercury) 3 hours later. An offshore buoy recorded a pressure drop of 9.2 millibars in just one hour. Major coastal flooding and beach erosion occurred along the New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia coasts as the storm made landfall. A wind gust to 89 mph occurred at Chincoteague, VA and 83 mph was recorded at Indian River, DE. Ocean city, MD was hit very hard with winds sustained at 50 mph and gusts to 70 mph. At the Ocean City airport, the runways were flooded at their worst ever. Substantial beach erosion was reported at Rehoboth Beach, DE which rivaled damage one by the great March 1962 storm. Total damage reached $45 million in New Jersey alone. Rainfall at inland locations over the Mid-Atlantic was very heavy in some places with Witts Orchard, VA checking in with a 24 hour total of 7.56 inches.
(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1994 - A major winter storm blanketed much of the northeastern U.S. with heavy snow. More than two feet was reported in northwestern Pennsylvania, with 33 inches at Waynesburg. There were ten heart attacks, and 185 injuries, related to the heavy snow in northwest Pennsylvania. Whiteout conditions were reported in Vermont and northeastern New York State. A wind gusts to 75 mph was clocked at Shaftsbury VT. In the Adirondacks of eastern New York State, the town of Tupper reported five inches of snow between 1 PM and 2 PM. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2003: Des Moines, Iowa: A record dry spell –53-days long – ends in Des Moines. (Ref. Wx. Doctor)

2008: One of the most powerful Pacific storms in years brought high winds, locally heavy rains and significant high elevation snow to interior Central California through the 5th. The heaviest rain fell in the foothills and in the southern Sierra Nevada up through about 7,000 feet in elevation where rainfall amounts reached as much as 9.41 inches at Wawona. In the High Sierra above 8,000 feet, the storm produced significant snowfall amounts in the Sierra with Aspendell reporting a total of 3 feet in 48 hours. Strong winds of 50 to 70 mph also destroyed the roof of a school and flipped over two glider planes in Avenal. Other wind gusts clocked included 75 mph at Crane Flat, 67 mph at Inyokern and 66 mph at Kettleman Hills. Bishop, CA reported 4 inches of rain, setting their all-time greatest one day rain total. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2018: NOAA's GOES-East satellite caught a dramatic view of the Bombogenesis 'Bomb Cyclone' moving up the East Coast on the morning of January 4, 2018. The powerful nor'easter is battering coastal areas with heavy snow and strong winds, from Florida to Maine. Notice the long line of clouds stretching over a thousand miles south of the storm. The storm is drawing moisture all the way from deep in the Caribbean.

[wthrmn654]

Atleast I had a pause from ground hog day snows.... and yes that's a different truck, my old one,  other one took a ride on a tow truck yesterday 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

Picked up 0.6" new snow here this morning.  Still snowing lightly.  26⁰

[WestBabylonWeather]

Another coating of snow and still snowing a little 

[bluewave]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Thats if you believe any model past 240 hours. Its hard to take them seriously since they have been changing. 

That’s correct. But we have to look at how the models have been changing. The big error this coming week was the models were too strong with  the -NAO and too weak with the Pacific Jet. We don’t have the strong -WPO and -NAO pattern anymore like we had back in December to hold the trough in the Northeast. So the extended EPS showing the fast Pacific flow with alternating ridges and troughs makes sense. 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like a very changeable pattern this month alternating between troughs and ridges in the East for the next few weeks. First week is starting out with a cold trough near our area.Then the ridge builds into the East this week for a thaw.This is followed again with a trough and colder around the 15th. Then another ridge and moderation as we approach the 20th.

 

It looks to me like we are still following a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña winter progression this month and we have been following one to a tee since late November. They are biased cold/snowy in the east from late November through mid-late January, then they flip to cold/snowy in the west for February. As of right now, I see no reason to think we deviate from the normal progression going forward

[Kaner587]

Partially frozen cold spring harbor with the cold spring harbor lab in the background

[gravitylover]

1.3" of the highest quality fluff I've had here in years. I cleared it all with a cheap battery leaf blower  

[Krs4Lfe]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s correct. But we have to look at how the models have been changing. The big error this coming week was the models were too strong with  the -NAO and too weak with the Pacific Jet. We don’t have the strong -WPO and -NAO pattern anymore like we had back in December to hold the trough in the Northeast. So the extended EPS showing the fast Pacific flow with alternating ridges and troughs makes sense. 

The fast pacific jet will continue to prevent a west based -NAO from forming and remaining persistent. Northern stream continues to outpace southern stream leading to clippers and dustings while larger storms become more and more rare. The precipitation anomalies look atrocious for rest of the month. Dry all around 

[NEG NAO]

27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks to me like we are still following a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña winter progression this month and we have been following one to a tee since late November. They are biased cold/snowy in the east from late November through mid-late January, then they flip to cold/snowy in the west for February. As of right now, I see no reason to think we deviate from the normal progression going forward

Only problem with that theory is the LaNina is fading and the real only cold water is in area 1/2. By Feb.we will be in La Nada or a neutral Enso. This along with the next Strat Warming event favors colder weather into Feb. and this northern flow mostly Clipper dryer pattern will probably change to a southern storm track. Alll attempts by the warmsters here to end winter early have failed this winter - keep that in mind.

[JustinRP37]

Another inch last night here. Was very surprised to see that much when I woke up. Leaf blower took care of it though. 

[EasternLI]

Actually, the 00z EPS seemed to favor an idea of having a semblance of northern blocking hang around with a bit of western ridge and a trough in the east in the 11-15 range on the clusters. Despite the mean from that run. With majority of members supporting that scenario instead. Be interesting to see if future runs reflect that or not.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Only problem with that theory is the LaNina is fading and the real only cold water is in area 1/2. By Feb.we will be in La Nada or a neutral Enso. This along with the next Strat Warming event favors colder weather into Feb. and this northern flow mostly Clipper dryer pattern will probably change to a southern storm track.

Every La Niña fades at this time of the year. Same story with El Niño. They peak in November/December then start fading. Every event does it. It’s a perfectly normal progression. And what strat warming? There is no strat warming predicted right now, in fact the SPV is strengthening. This idea being floated around twitter that we are going to magically light switch flip the atmosphere into Modoki El Niño forcing by February is preposterous IMO. The premise that we are just going to go from following a front-loaded La Niña winter evolution to a tee from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response. It defies physics and common sense IMO

EDIT:

@NEG NAO @MJO812 @bluewave:
 

[NEG NAO]

Take a look at the historical snowfall in NYC - Many winters with over 7 inches snowfall in NYC have ended up with above average seasons and quite a few had much above normal Febs. Keep that in mind.....

monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Every La Niña fades at this time of the year. Same story with El Niño. They peak in November/December then start fading. Every event does it. It’s a perfectly normal progression. And what strat warming? There is no strat warming predicted right now, in fact the SPV is strengthening. This idea being floated around twitter that we are going to magically light switch flip the atmosphere into Modoki El Niño forcing by February is preposterous IMO. The premise that we are just going to go from following a front-loaded La Niña winter evolution to a tee from late November to the present, then just when the classic progression into a canonical February is supposed to happen, Modoki El Niño (cold/snowy) forcing is going to take over for February and March? That seems too unbelievable. You just don’t light switch flip the atmosphere from one completely different ENSO base state to another that quickly. There is always a lag before an atmospheric response. It defies physics and common sense IMO

The strat warming is being advertised by some well known respected METS online - The proof will be in the pudding Forky

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Actually, the 00z EPS seemed to favor an idea of having a semblance of northern blocking hang around with a bit of western ridge and a trough in the east in the 11-15 range on the clusters. Despite the mean from that run. With majority of members supporting that scenario instead. Be interesting to see if future runs reflect that or not.

The EPS has been awful with the NAO. It just completely busted very badly on the huge west based -NAO block for early-mid January it kept showing for run after run for days. @SnowGoose69 just posted about that -NAO bias the EPS has 

[EastonSN+]

17 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Actually, the 00z EPS seemed to favor an idea of having a semblance of northern blocking hang around with a bit of western ridge and a trough in the east in the 11-15 range on the clusters. Despite the mean from that run. With majority of members supporting that scenario instead. Be interesting to see if future runs reflect that or not.

Thanks for this. Also Don provided stats on how a positive PNA was likely following a long RNA period.

It DOES look as though we are heading into phase six again, almost connecting to the last wave starting period below. If this holds we could see another phase 8.

So much for the warm pool keeping us in phases 4/5/6, clippers being extinct, NAO always linking to the SE Ridge, SE ridge being an entity in itself and taking over. I think you even showed the warm pool was shifting slowly east which would be favorable (i.e. the western warm pool being there "the rest of our lives"). 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It looks to me like we are still following a classic, canonical “front-loaded” La Niña winter progression this month and we have been following one to a tee since late November. They are biased cold/snowy in the east from late November through mid-late January, then they flip to cold/snowy in the west for February. As of right now, I see no reason to think we deviate from the normal progression going forward

This La Niña progression was much more amplified due to the record early stratospheric disruption in late November. The wildcard going forward is how much influence the stratosphere has on the rest of the La Niña progression. All we know for sure is that the stratospheric influence couldn’t shift the persistent Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. So the rarity of the 500mb pattern with the fast Pacific flow actually worked in our favor for once in December with the record two 4-8” clippers. But now that the stratospheric influence is fading,  we are back to the Northern stream interfering with snowier outcomes like we saw with earlier forecasts for this week.