26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Stops at Vernon

I think 6+ is virtually a lock here TBH

[Brian5671]

Upton has 5-9 here-depends on banding.  GFS is a wet outlier which is quite unusual

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Congrats on the Christmas miracle out east def stole NYCs storm . One more budge at game time and you steal ours too. Winter storm warnings for all upon wake up? 

Seems Upton expanded the WSW south into New Jersey rather than to EOR.

In any event it looks like pur area CT is in the best spot if we blend all the guidance.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Upton has 5-9 here-depends on banding.  GFS is a wet outlier which is quite unusual

Snowgoose said a while back…GFS may not be off it’s rocker this go around.  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ariof said:

Me on I-84 pulling into Reins.

We Pastrami on Rye

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol . Cobb Bufkit implies 8 plus for you. Ratios end up 12 to 1

He pulled out a drawing compass with circles and graphs to find two cities with the perfect line to “exquisitely “ leave Tolland out 

[CoastalWx]

Of course it melts two days later. 

[radarman]

Agree about the dry air... what might sometimes be small flakes in a subsidence zone w/ a heavy band to the west will just sublimate entirely.  Brief heavy burst should yield an inch or two.

[Damage In Tolland]

Should hold onto solid pack almost everyone with ice to Cold rain 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So what’s that mean Paul? Great snow growth? 

Under the banding the snowfall rates would probably approach 2"/hr and maybe even upwards of 2.5". Feasibly, because of the crosshair signature (the -30 dissecting the snow growth zone) that should elicit great snowgrowth...the dendrites which accumulate quickly. I am a little worried though we may not get the perfect dendrites and snow growth will be a bit impacted by some dry air. 

The big question is what happens outside of the banding...that's where there could be more of a struggle and if we end up with multiple band signatures there will be some screw zones. In between these, perhaps even outside the banding, this is where you'll get more in the way of Arctic dust. 

Regardless, a widespread 4-7" is still in the cards but we need to be mindful there will be some screw zones. I don't think we'll see many totals eclipse 7-8" only because its really a 3 hour period of heavy accumulating snow and that's it. 

This is going to be fun to track in real time

[mattm4242]

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/2004529233054577051?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

Lift definitely shits out east of Kevin to Steve. Hopefully we keep ticking NE.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Of course it melts two days later. 

Yeah what a waste, sucks but at least we aren’t getting a 2 foot blizzard and wasting it. Probably only a few inches here, will look nice for a couple of days before the melt due to the cutter. 2 feet of snow then a cutter would be awful, there would be patches of dirty, filthy snow. Fortunately, there won’t be enough snow for that to happen. 

[Mr. Windcredible!]

Not that it matters in the grand scheme of things…but surprised neither OKC nor BOX extended WSWs east. I honestly thought they might have pulled the trigger yesterday afternoon. You’d think the 3-7” they have in the P&C would warrant it. Based on how this has tended the past couple days, wouldn’t be shocked to see the heaviest axis verify slightly east of where modeled.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Most likely not…but this system has grown in size /coverage quite a bit from the earlier ideas. 

This has been a common theme last few years with guidance. Expansion of the precipitation field in last 48 hours is definitely something that has been happening.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lift definitely shits out east of Kevin to Steve. Hopefully we keep ticking NE.

Another small tick or two would be great.

We could pound for a few hours and end up with 5-6” or we could be fighting the dry air and end up with an inch or two of sand. Could go either way right now 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Box not impressed at all for this area. 1” maybe 2” in the spots with some ocean enhancement 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Another small tick or two would be great.

We could pound for a few hours and end up with 5-6” or we could be fighting the dry air and end up with an inch or two of sand. Could go either way right now 

True. It’s tough to know Which way are you leaning though ….

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

True. It’s tough to know Which way are you leaning though ….

I’m actually somewhat optimistic that we may not see the total screw job we’ve become accustomed to here.

This should have at least some higher upside than a dying weak shortwave running up against marginal temps like we’ve become used to.

Id feel a lot better in CT

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just couldn’t include TOL in there ?

PSF-WST basically goes over TOL 

[Damage In Tolland]

Hammer updating maps to 6-10” most of CT and 3-6” far NE 

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Box not impressed at all for this area. 1” maybe 2” in the spots with some ocean enhancement 

That's kinda what I always assumed for EMA..scattered 1-2" amounts with some OE stuff along coast

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That's kinda what I always assumed for EMA..scattered 1-2" amounts with some OE stuff along coast

I feel like a lot of guidance is a little bit better than that.

Weve managed to somehow find ourselves on the floor side of every storm over the last half decade, so maybe they nail it, but euro and NAM would argue more 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NAM a good bump SW unfortunately .. let's hope the qpf overcorrected south for you guys, everyone still gets plowable which is a win from where we were 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I feel like a lot of guidance is a little bit better than that.

Weve managed to somehow find ourselves on the floor side of every storm over the last half decade, so maybe they nail it, but euro and NAM would argue more 

Last 3.8 years lol. 

[VivaManchVegas]

Maybe NAM is picking up on the dry air issues.  The axis of the heaviest snows does not really move, but the north east extent of snow is definitely affected. 

 

[weatherwiz]

the NAM really diminishes that fronto quickly. It's like a 2-3 hour period (if even 3 hours) of very heavy snow and done. Western CT/MA could get 6-7" and EOR could get like 2-3" lol. That cutoff is going to be pretty wild. Might have to re-think about the Fairfield County jack...that's probably best area to get thundersnow and rates closer to 3" per hour

[CoastalWx]

NAM with the Lucy baby.