Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[ag3]

4”-8”.

Lock it in.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The ukie is decent mostly 3 to 5. The heavy initial band kinda goes north of the area so amounts are lower for that reason than mixing 

Yep upped amounts from 6z

[MJO812]

Just now, ag3 said:

4”-8”.

Lock it in.

Winter storm warnings most likely today

[BxEngine]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

 

kinda shocked to see a couple veterans squabbling like this...someone pee in the corn flakes guys? i mean it is christmas. i understand we have some jewish, hindu and muslim friends here, as well as agnostics like me, but come on....it's like you'd all be happier if they were calling for rain and 58 degrees.....we got frozen precip on the way, let's be happy. might be all we see for weeks....

Its all good. Sometimes we can disagree and my sarcasm goes too far. I dont need to be fucking called names and attacked personally on christmas morning, but it is what it is. Everyone will get over it. 

[TriPol]

Walt how accurate is this

[BoulderWX]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The ukie is decent mostly 3 to 5. The heavy initial band kinda goes north of the area so amounts are lower for that reason than mixing 

And could very well be close to the solution. I’m Much less confident in a 4+ storm than I was last yesterday at this time but 3-5 would be excellent still 

[mob1]

15Z RAP, it's almost always too cold at this range but fun to look at. 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, TriPol said:

Walt how accurate is this

Its Kuchera 

[BoulderWX]

3 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Walt how accurate is this

Not very accurate in the long term - somewhat better within 10 hours and it’s Kuchera. I’d look at 10:1 QPF

[winterwx21]

I hope the HRRR is a sign that GFS has been leading the way and we get 6 or 7 inches here, but it also wouldn't be a surprise if it's 3 or 4 and then sleet. Either way though it will be a nice winter storm. Very nice to get 2 solid snow events in December. That should be a good sign for the rest of the winter. 

[Northof78]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Walt how accurate is this

Extremely 

[winterwarlock]

16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The GFS soundings look great for all snow for just about everyone. My biggest concern is how much snow growth there will be. This is primarily an overrunning event. Just because it’s cold doesn’t mean you’re going to get great ratios. It helps but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a 3-6 hour period where most of the snow falls. I would be cautious with forecasting more than 4-6” for most.

i absolutely love your signature

[North and West]

kinda shocked to see a couple veterans squabbling like this...someone pee in the corn flakes guys? i mean it is christmas. i understand we have some jewish, hindu and muslim friends here, as well as agnostics like me, but come on....it's like you'd all be happier if they were calling for rain and 58 degrees.....we got frozen precip on the way, let's be happy. might be all we see for weeks....

Christmas is such a welcoming and joyous holiday, too, that we can, for just a day, not be insufferable. I promise we can all go back to being awful just in time for tomorrow. There are twelve days of Christmas.


.

[NorthShoreWx]

37 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wouldn’t mind a good sleet storm. It’s been a while! Merry Christmas 

Thanks, same to you.

FWIW, it still looks like we stay on the all snow side of the region, although we both been through this rodeo before.

I always thought it would be great to start the winter with a major sleet bomb and then keep piling snowfalls on top of it (the XC skier in me).  One can dream.

[Stormlover74]

I know we don't really use the hdrps but its been showing this solution with a really drastic drop-off 

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Thanks, same to you.

FWIW, it still looks like we stay on the all snow side of the region, although we both been through this rodeo before.

I always thought it would be great to start the winter with a major sleet bomb and then keep piling snowfalls on top of it (the XC skier in me).  One can dream.

There will be a sleet bomb with this one and that will be in my part of eastern PA and places west of here.  The place to be with this one will be the Metro area and places to the north and east.  The forcing accompanying this system looks to be the real deal for the snow lovers.  I bought four bags of ice remover yesterday so I am all set.  I’m figuring on 1-2” with sleet and ice on top.

[MJO812]

Steve D going 6-10 for NYC

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D going 6-10 for NYC

Yeah he has 6-10 for a large area, very bullish when even the models showing the most snow, show it in a relatively confined area. I think some get 6+ but the wide swath he has is surprising to me. 

[winterwarlock]

so he is often wrong and then its wash rinse repeat from him

[winterwarlock]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I know we don't really use the hdrps but its been showing this solution with a really drastic drop-off 

thats really awful for my area

[Stormlover74]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D going 6-10 for NYC

He has 6 to 10 way too far south and west

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

He has 6 to 10 way too far south and west

If it comes in like a wall of heavy snow then he could be right. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

If it comes in like a wall of heavy snow then he could be right. 

There’s going to be a band of 1-2” rates but it will move through quickly. I think the models showing 8”+ are mostly overdone but there could definitely be a narrow corridor where everything is maximized in terms of lift and a cold enough column. If I had to pick a spot it would be just North of the city. 

[MJO812]

Euro slightly colder

[sussexcountyobs]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D going 6-10 for NYC

Yup. Just watched his premeum video made public.

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro slightly colder

Good sign as it was already pretty good at 06Z

Edit; actually looks slightly worse than 06Z

 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

thats really awful for my area

Tough forecast for sure for New Brunswick along I-78 then south to Trenton. I’d go with maybe a few inches there but expect that sleet could cut into it quite a bit. Like others have said the sleet usually ends up north of where it’s supposed to and sometimes by quite a bit. But if it comes on like a real thump then maybe the colder models could be closer to right since a lot of snow will fall before warm air aloft can ruin it. You can almost always count on the late north shifts on these type of storms unless a strong block can stop it. Anyway-try to enjoy whatever happens and Merry Christmas/happy holidays. 

[sussexcountyobs]

I'm  interested to see Bobby Martrichs' from EPAWA last call text message alert. I go with his forecast for my area. He's good. No BS stuff.

[jm1220]

And today just stop with the bickering. Just stop. Go enjoy time with your families/friends if you can’t help yourself here today. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And today just stop with the bickering. Just stop. Go enjoy time with your families/friends if you can’t help yourself here today. 

Snow will be gone 2 days later so people need to chill