Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Yep

We have time for it to reverse otherwise its congrats Saratoga 

[Snowlover11]

North bump is real. Hopefully it stops soon. Brutal if you live south of NYC 30-60 miles.

[donsutherland1]

The 500 mb map preceding the storm has some similarities to December 27-28, 1984. Then, NYC picked up 4.8” of snow, Boston 0.2” and Philadelphia had none.

[Roger Smith]

Just now, donsutherland1 said:

The 500 mb map preceding the storm has some similarities to December 27-28, 1984. Then, NYC picked up 4.8” of snow, Boston 0.2” and Philadelphia had none.

and it was 70 F two days later. In this case, more like 55 F to 60 F?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

and it was 70 F two days later. In this case, more like 55 F to 60 F?

It will turn somewhat milder as a storm cuts to the Great Lakes, but the warmth won’t break through like it did in 1984.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs north but still heavy snow for most at the start

[Krs4Lfe]

Let’s see what the other models have to say. There’s still nearly 2 days worth of north trends that are possible. Wouldn’t take much to put us on the wrong side of the track. Doubtful but not improbable

[wthrmn654]

And this is why winter storm watch should of been up area wide.... for the potential...imo. amounts have been getting better ever so slightly eastern areas. 

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 500 mb map preceding the storm has some similarities to December 27-28, 1984. Then, NYC picked up 4.8” of snow, Boston 0.2” and Philadelphia had none.

That one was followed by 70⁰ weather a couple of days later.

 

Edit: I see I'm not the only one around here with a good memory.

[donsutherland1]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

That one was followed by 70⁰ weather a couple of days later.

Yes, but not this time.

[psv88]

Sitting at nearly 9” of snow on the year, looks like we head into January at 12”+. Can’t really ask for more than that. 

[jllevin79]

Too early for timing? I have to get from Rockland to Yankee Stadium Saturday morning for the Pinstripe Bowl.


.

[Nibor]

Someone down near Philly is gonna get like 3 inches of sleet from this

[Northof78]

GFS @ 10:1 is 6" - 10" for all, with NYC the bullseye

[Nibor]

[ag3]

I would ignore the NAM. It does whacky things like this sometimes.

When the GFS is much colder, snowier and has support from the Rgem and others, it’s a great sign for snow lovers.

 

[mikeysed]

GFS Kuchera

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, ag3 said:

I would ignore the NAM. It does whacky things like this sometimes.

When the GFS is much colder, snowier and has support from the Rgem and others, it’s a great sign for snow lovers.

 

It also went insanely north with yesterday's event at about 48-60 hours out too.   Given nothing else at 00Z did that I'd not really change any ideas yet.  The RRFS/RGEM at this range have recently tended to have slight suppression/amped biases respectively so something near what the GFS shows is what I'd go with now

[Snowlover11]

4 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

GFS Kuchera

Shifted a bit north but pretty much noise.

[Stormlover74]

Ukie is wonky. Showing sleet to NH

[Nibor]

[psv88]

Weather models are absolutely getting worse. I don’t give a crap what anyone tries to tell me. 

[Krs4Lfe]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Shifted a bit north but pretty much noise.

Can’t have too many north shifts or sleet will be up to NYC. Looks like an initial heavy thump regardless. Big sleet and ice storm south of there. Doesn’t look to be any rain unless you’re south of Philly 

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 500 mb map preceding the storm has some similarities to December 27-28, 1984. Then, NYC picked up 4.8” of snow, Boston 0.2” and Philadelphia had none.

Comes in as the 6th closest match.  Closest according to CIPS is 12/14/95, overall this setup has more of the NW-SE dive though, 1995 the low tracked well north so the results of that to me are not a good match.  12/19/79 looks like by far the closest match on track but this system is more juiced and more broad.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1979/us1219.php

 

[Nibor]

Idk maybe during that one frame the mid levels just really juice TF up.

[jm1220]

Last minute north bump on a SWFE type system- color me shocked. I think from the city east has enough wiggle room here to hold on but I’d be sweating if I was south of say New Brunswick to Trenton. 

[winterwarlock]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Last minute north bump on a SWFE type system- color me shocked. I think from the city east has enough wiggle room here to hold on but I’d be sweating if I was south of say New Brunswick to Trenton. 

Yikes

[anthonymm]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Yeah the low can still be not too far north but we all get sleet instead of snow because of that mid level warmth. Southwest flow event storms like these tend to have more mid level warmth than expected. Been countless instances of storms with this track (not just in 2020s but 2010s as well), where the precip is delayed and then we have mainly sleet from the onset and the totals end up being cut in half of What was originally expected 

yup. feb 8 2025. among many others. swfes arent good for our metro area, they're better for new england. underestimate the warm tongue at your own peril

[anthonymm]

58 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Let’s see what the other models have to say. There’s still nearly 2 days worth of north trends that are possible. Wouldn’t take much to put us on the wrong side of the track. Doubtful but not improbable

not doubtful. writings on the wall with this one. congrats albany and western new england.

[Krs4Lfe]

3 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

yup. feb 8 2025. among many others. swfes arent good for our metro area, they're better for new england. underestimate the warm tongue at your own peril

Absolutely. Sleet always makes its way further north than expected. There are a few exceptions but with another north trend, NYC’s totals will be cut back quite a bit I’d think