Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Snowlover11]

Just now, nycemt123 said:

I'm beyond exhausted and tired and eyes glazed from triple monitor at work. What is it looking like?

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NAM is a disaster for everyone in this forum. If you want snow.

[nycemt123]

That's the precipitation rate (of sleet in this case)

Oh lol gotcha. Ew please no to sleetstorm. Rockland county turns into a sheet of ice when its overnight sleet

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[RedSky]

The NAM grinch run 

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Maybe in the last four years, you can call that a big hit in Central Park, because it actually hasn't happened officially. Even though most of the city had a 4 to 5 inch snowfall a week ago.
 

Historically there have been several 100 4 inch snowfalls in Central Park since 1870. I know it's semantics, but I wouldn't classify that as a big hit.

Yes. Central Park has seen 355 days with 4" or more snowfall. That amounts to an average of about 2.3 such days each year.

[mgerb]

FWIW, FV3 looks good (run not complete here)

[WestBabylonWeather]

15 minutes ago, mob1 said:

My God

lol 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. Central Park has seen 355 days with 4" or more snowfall. That amounts to an average of about 2.3 such days each year.

Don, I'm guessing if you added in 4 inch snowfalls from a single event which would span a two day period, that would even go up by another hundred at least. 
 

[SI Mailman]

What’s the opposite of getting NAM’d?

[nycemt123]

What’s the opposite of getting NAM’d?

Doing the NAM'ing

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[mob1]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

What’s the opposite of getting NAM’d?

Getting d'MAN

Let's see what the rest of the 0Z suite shows. 

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Given the strong support on the earlier individual ensembles, which span a plausible range of scenarios, I will need to see a lot more before buying into the NAM's latest solution. That a single member of the EPS had < 1" snow for NYC and none of the GEFS members had it, suggest that the idea is perhaps a very low probability scenario. It's difficult to see that 6 hours has brought about a dramatic and sharp change in the synoptic picture.

Finally, the NAM was trying to dump 2.4" of snow on NYC with light precipitation, warming mid-level, and above freezing temperatures 12-18 hours before the onset of the last event. New York City received a trace. Let's see what the RGEM, GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show over the next few hours. 

Totally agree.  Wish they would just pull the plug on that thing.

I still maintain though that the ceiling on this is 6"....exactly where that might be reached over this forum remains to be determined.  I'm going with 3-6" for my area as of now.

Merry Christmas !

[mob1]

4 minutes ago, mgerb said:

FWIW, FV3 looks good (run not complete here)

Looks incredible verbatim but it also shifted significantly north from its previous run. 

[MJO812]

Fv3 looks great 

[donsutherland1]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Don, I'm guessing if you added in 4 inch snowfalls from a single event which would span a two day period, that would even go up by another hundred at least. 
 

I didn't. There were 406 if one considers two-day periods.

[Roger Smith]

That NAM fiasco is due to the low running 200 miles further north, it's north of Erie PA on the map instead of somewhere near the WV-OH border into sw PA. 

It's over the left guardrail into the Walmart parking lot. 

[eduggs]

10 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

That NAM fiasco is due to the low running 200 miles further north, it's north of Erie PA on the map instead of somewhere near the WV-OH border into sw PA. 

It's over the left guardrail into the Walmart parking lot. 

The 18z EPS had a few members in that vicinity. And the GEFS had a few that were a little south but close. That surface track is possible though still somewhat unlikely. The mid-level low tracks are possibly more important.

[Krs4Lfe]

31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

for central park a big hit is 4 inches

Absolutely not. A big hit would be 6-8+”. 4” snowfalls happen on average a few times a year. This decade has been filled with ratters though so that skews our mindset. That being said, if central park measured properly, they would have had 4” in the last storm along with the February 2024 storm. They just don’t measure properly 

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, eduggs said:

The 18z EPS had a few members in that vicinity. And the GEFS had a few that were a little south but close. That surface track is possible though still somewhat unlikely. The mid-level low tracks are possibly more important.

Yeah the low can still be not too far north but we all get sleet instead of snow because of that mid level warmth. Southwest flow event storms like these tend to have more mid level warmth than expected. Been countless instances of storms with this track (not just in 2020s but 2010s as well), where the precip is delayed and then we have mainly sleet from the onset and the totals end up being cut in half of What was originally expected 

[MJO812]

Icon slightly north 

[mob1]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Icon slightly north 

18Z for reference 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Icon slightly north 

That’s nice beefy qpf, thought that was a kuchera map at first. 

[mob1]

RGEM got a bit warmer as well

[TriPol]

Just now, mob1 said:

RGEM got a bit warmer as well

Weenie suicides incoming

[Krs4Lfe]

Beware of the north moving snow band. I still maintain my call that I expect mixing up through NYC. It’s a hallmark of these types of storms, hard to bet against it 

[mob1]

Just now, TriPol said:

Weenie suicides incoming

It's still acceptable verbatim for most (though not all), but trends are very concerning. 

It's not just the placement of the low, the block shifted a bit east, allowing the HP to escape a bit more NE and the primary low gets further NE before sliding SE. 

Still time to course correct, but these are the type of things that fundamentally change the whole setup. 

[Neblizzard]

4 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Weenie suicides incoming

Never.  I’ve learned a long time ago than to believe anything  past 24 hours.  

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Weenie suicides incoming

Uh ?

 

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Beware of the north moving snow band. I still maintain my call that I expect mixing up through NYC. It’s a hallmark of these types of storms, hard to bet against it 

We know

[MJO812]

We go through this with every storm. People are always nervous.

Rgem looks decent 

[BoulderWX]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

We go through this with every storm. People are always nervous.

Rgem looks decent 

Looks great to me. But it can stop there lol

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Looks great to me. But it can stop there lol

Yep