Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23 For NYC Region (Discussion & Observations)

[Northof78]

NAM continues to come south/colder/wetter with more than 2" now for CPK. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS looks good for 2 inches area wide!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Well to be fair, Christmas Day is still forecast to be above normal up here but by less than it looked thankfully! 

Yes but two weeks ago the weeklies had the Christmas Day to New Years period 10° above average. It looks just about average to me now. But of course it didn't happen yet so we shall see.

[Tatamy]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Careful predicting anything this far out. Models have been horrendous in the long range.

Where’s our Christmas torch?  Lol

[203whiteout]

I hope expectations are tempered along the coast, and city on south. The airmass is marginal at best. This will be mostly white rain for most, unfortunately. Even if it starts as snow, it will quickly change to rain along the coast and city. If you’re away from the coast, North and West of city this will be a nice 2-4” event. End of the week event looks interesting but will likely feature a very sharp cutoff from SW to NE. I could see NYC getting buried and SW CT get next to nothing in this set up. Hopefully it trends a bit north and includes all snow starved areas. The south has had their fun. I hope it’s our turn..


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[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

I hope expectations are tempered along the coast, and city on south. The airmass is marginal at best. This will be mostly white rain for most, unfortunately. Even if it starts as snow, it will quickly change to rain along the coast and city. If you’re away from the coast, North and West of city this will be a nice 2-4” event. End of the week event looks interesting but will likely feature a very sharp cutoff from SW to NE. I could see NYC getting buried and SW CT get next to nothing in this set up. Hopefully it trends a bit north and includes all snow starved areas. The south has had their fun. I hope it’s our turn..


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I actually disagree, it's not really marginal, it's actually colder than the last storm to begin. It's probably going to accumulate for a bit and end as white rain if you ask me

[203whiteout]

Last event featured a much colder airmass before the event (it did modify by the time precip moved in). Also, we remained snow during the entire event. Totally different set ups. We had thunderstorms the other day and it was 40 degrees in Fairfield CT today. 36 now. I am not expecting anything more than an inch here on the coast. You’re entitled to your opinion. I genuinely hope you’re right and I’m wrong. I just don’t see it for us on the coastal plain and city..


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[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

Last event featured a much colder airmass before the event (it did modify by the time precip moved in). Also, we remained snow during the entire event. Totally different set ups. We had thunderstorms the other day and it was 40 degrees in Fairfield CT today. 36 now. I am not expecting anything more than an inch here on the coast. You’re entitled to your opinion. I genuinely hope you’re right and I’m wrong. I just don’t see it for us on the coastal plain and city..


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if you compare temperatures when the precip moves in compared to last event, it's going to be colder this time around. Last time the temperatures got colder as the event got going, this event is the opposite it'll warm up as the event starts departing. Also this event is a bit smaller with precipitation amounts but like i said it is colder this time around!

[BxEngine]

18 minutes ago, 203whiteout said:

I hope expectations are tempered along the coast, and city on south. The airmass is marginal at best. This will be mostly white rain for most, unfortunately. Even if it starts as snow, it will quickly change to rain along the coast and city. If you’re away from the coast, North and West of city this will be a nice 2-4” event. End of the week event looks interesting but will likely feature a very sharp cutoff from SW to NE. I could see NYC getting buried and SW CT get next to nothing in this set up. Hopefully it trends a bit north and includes all snow starved areas. The south has had their fun. I hope it’s our turn..


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Have you considered reading the thread to make sure that everyones expectations are up to snuff for you? 

[203whiteout]

Have you considered reading the thread to make sure that everyones expectations are up to snuff for you? 

Lmao, I’m smart enough to not waste my time. Honestly, it wouldn’t make a difference if I did. Just a friendly reminder to not be surprised if this event doesn’t turn out to be much of anything despite some of the snow maps showing a few inches in borderline areas. The storm is happening during the day too which doesn’t help (even in late December)


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[Roger Smith]

2 inches for CPK, I'll believe that when I see 0.5" posted in the climate summary. 

My take on this one is, light coatings of snow grains, mixed with drizzle, not a great road scenario because it won't slow down traffic very much while adding the hazards of slushy partly frozen crud. Could drop 1-3 inches on colder northern suburban areas though. Widespread black ice the following morning. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

2 inches for CPK, I'll believe that when I see 0.5" posted in the climate summary. 

My take on this one is, light coatings of snow grains, mixed with drizzle, not a great road scenario because it won't slow down traffic very much while adding the hazards of slushy partly frozen crud. Could drop 1-3 inches on colder northern suburban areas though. Widespread black ice the following morning. 

Hopefully an inch or so where I live, it’s usually a couple to few degrees colder than the city so that should help. 

[North and West]

And two weeks ago some on here were touting the torch for Christmas week. I've found looking ahead past ten days is very unreliable and just spoils the here and now. 

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[sussexcountyobs]

Not liking the slowly rising temps here. Still a couple degrees below freezing. Assuming it will drop a couple with evaporation cooling once precip gets overhead?

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

.

This. 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, 203whiteout said:

Lmao, I’m smart enough to not waste my time. Honestly, it wouldn’t make a difference if I did. Just a friendly reminder to not be surprised if this event doesn’t turn out to be much of anything despite some of the snow maps showing a few inches in borderline areas. The storm is happening during the day too which doesn’t help (even in late December)


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I'm thankful that there are people like you looking out for my delicate sensibilities.

[eduggs]

37 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Not liking the slowly rising temps here. Still a couple degrees below freezing. Assuming it will drop a couple with evaporation cooling once precip gets overhead?

I'd feel more comfortable too with colder temperatures but this airmass should support accumulating snow in most areas away from the coastline. Yeah should drop a few degrees when the lower levels fully saturate. Before then the temps are likely to rise as clouds move in and then stabilize or fluctuate slightly. Should be approx. 30-36 until precip. starts and then 30-34 (elevation and location dependent) with mostly snow late tonight.

[Stormlover74]

43 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Not liking the slowly rising temps here. Still a couple degrees below freezing. Assuming it will drop a couple with evaporation cooling once precip gets overhead?

Up to 33 here. Should fall to 31 or 32 at the onset of precip

[eduggs]

Some flakes reported on mPING in northern MD near Hagerstown with the initial finger of overrunning. Latest HRRR and current radar look decent. Hoping for a good burst of snow in the 5am - 11am timeframe. If moderate or better rates materialize, it should accumulate for most.

[psv88]

35/23 now. Not expecting anything 

[donsutherland1]

For New York City and nearby areas, a coating to perhaps an inch remains the most likely outcome. The 2" figure shown on the NAM has been slashed in its 0z cycle.

Live by the NAM...

Die by the NAM...

Issues for New York City:

• Mainly or wholly above freezing
• Light precipitation rates

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For New York City and nearby areas, a coating to perhaps an inch remains the most likely outcome. The 2" figure shown on the NAM has been slashed in its 0z cycle.

Live by the NAM...

Die by the NAM...

Issues for New York City:

• Mainly or wholly above freezing
• Light precipitation rates

Only an inch different?  Wouldn’t call that a drastic shift in modeling

[Krs4Lfe]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Only an inch different?  Wouldn’t call that a drastic shift in modeling

Well that was the difference between 1-2” and nothing. NYC in mid 30s right now, so shouldn’t expect anything except some white rain maybe. Marginal events like this would have likely worked in the past for a few inches. Not anymore 

[WeatherGeek2025]

guys models are not exact science they are guidance. You can tell this will be a minor event but if the snow comes in it's cold enough it will accumulate it's not rocket science NYC is getting 1.5 from this that's my prediction

[eduggs]

HRRR (01z), RRFS, and ICON are a little juicier than the NAM: 0.2 - 0.3 liquid for NYC. Heaviest band could be fairly narrow. Snow accumulations along coastal plain likely intensity dependent. So far no obvious change at 0z.

[eduggs]

The 0z GFS still looks pretty solid. General mean of 0.1 - 0.3" liquid across all guidance. The radar is a little ragged but slowly building and snow isn't expected until just before dawn. Do we get cranking or does it fizzle? Nowcast in the early morning...

0.25 liquid over 8 hours is a fairly respectable average intensity if it happens.

[RU848789]

Today was disc golf, shopping, tree decorating and dinner with our son and his wife then our biweekly poker night, so just getting back to looking at things. Will go with 1" in Metuchen, since the model consensus is more than the 0.5" the NWS gives me, and it just feels like things are trending better right before the storm, which I always like to see (like 12/14 and unlike most storms the last 4 winters). Let's go!

[Snowlover11]

0.2” on the board, Snowing pretty good currently. Sitting at 31F

[BxEngine]

All roads covered, nice start. Cant beat driving to the store in the snow with Nat King Cole on the radio. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Light snow. All surfaces covered. 30.8