The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

ICON looks similar to the NAM precip distribution wise.

[clskinsfan]

Getting missed to the south on December 5th wouid be icing on the cake of the past few winters. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Getting missed to the south on December 5th wouid be icing on the cake of the past few winters. 

Seriously, smh. The Euro solution would be quite unlike what we've seen from sliders the last several years. They haven't tracked across central MD in I don't know how long. Color me skeptical until it gets more support.

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Hey buddy 

Yes let’s do this…once again it’s time.  

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, 12z Rgem went a bit south of 6z. Not worth posting.

[mitchnick]

The question is whether the 6z Euro being its over-amped self. Idk

[Ji]

yearly reminder

 

We are too north for southern sliders

We are too south for Miller Bs and all those 40N events we miss out on

We are too far west for La Nina Noreasters that clobber Va Beach/Ocean City

We are too far east for clippers

[T. August]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

The question is whether the 6z Euro being its over-amped self. Idk

I mean it’s the only piece of guidance getting anything appreciable north of SoMD. I think we are cooked.

[wxmeddler]

I may be a simple man, but I see this (Euro Ensemble) for a daytime event in the 1st week of December. I'm not complaining (edit: yet).

[SnowenOutThere]

I like this bit from the NWS disco

FWIW,
snow and ice has trended up slightly over the past couple of
runs. While amounts are forecast to generally be light (an inch
or two, perhaps three should a higher end solution verify), the
northward shift is notable. Looking at clusters featuring the
greatest variance (EOF) regarding amplitude does suggest
additional northward expansion is possible. Just something to
keep in mind.

[87storms]

We need a hp to the north of us, not over top of us lol.

[TSSN+]

36 minutes ago, H2O said:

I think you both are talking about how the euro nailed Sandy

Ha yes that’s what I was thinking of. 

[87storms]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The question is whether the 6z Euro being its over-amped self. Idk

This one is for the southern crew. I’d be hyped if I was in Central Va.

[stormtracker]

So GFS looks slightly more norther with the precip shield.  Not sure it's going to be enough tho..it's not substantially farther north than 6z so far

[TSSN+]

Gfs is congrats North Carolina and southern Va. figures south of us will probably cash in before we do. Why not? lol 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it slides south still.   Bob Chill looks solid for this one

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is congrats North Carolina and southern Va. figures south of us will probably cash in before we do. Why not? lol 

Meh..still in the envelope between the Euro, NAM and GFS. Heading over to the long range thread for next week

[NorthArlington101]

not willing to throw in the towel with a EURO median of 1.5" or so for most of us... though I won't pretend this can't miss. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Meh..still in the envelope between the Euro, NAM and GFS.

If the euro holds like we better hope the other models follow suit soon. Less than 48hrs out and there’s like a 200 mile difference between the gfs and euro in precip shield. 

[ravensrule]

I love this place, if the GFS was showing something but the Euro wasn't everyone would be like shut the blinds this storm is done. Now it's the other way around and there is all this doom and gloom. All hail the Europeans. 

[mitchnick]

Watch the follow-up on the Gfs. Might be something, might not.

[bncho]

NWS:

[TSSN+]

Just now, ravensrule said:

I love this place, if the GFS was showing something but the Euro wasn't everyone would be like shut the blinds this storm is done. Now it's the other way around and there is all this doom and gloom. 

Cause the euro by itself also isn’t the best place to be. Seen that so many times when euro was showing a boom and other models weren’t and euro busted big time. Example last year. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Watch the follow-up on the Gfs. Might be something, might not.

That’s some solid analysis haha 

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Cause the euro by itself also isn’t the best place to be. Seen that so many times when euro was showing a boom and other models weren’t and euro busted big time. Example last year. 

The Euro is still by far the best model, i would rather have it in my camp than any other model. 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

The Euro is still by far the best model, i would rather have it in my camp than any other model. 

Guess we will see what it has to say in about an hour 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Are we really going to get the Feb 19-20 treatment again?

[Scraff]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

yearly reminder

 

We are too north for southern sliders

We are too south for Miller Bs and all those 40N events we miss out on

We are too far west for La Nina Noreasters that clobber Va Beach/Ocean City

We are too far east for clippers

That’s too wordy. Next time just say we suck at snow. 

[mitchnick]

In a word....Ughhh

[SnowenOutThere]

5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Are we really going to get the Feb 19-20 treatment again?

Do not invoke such a storm in this happy go lucky 12/5 thread