The Return of the 12/5 Snowstorm

[Paleocene]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

First stab at a snowfall map (made for my instagram but might as well post it here). Since it's made for public consumption I always hedge my bets a bit so its a bit more conservative than my true thinking. 

im crying old bay tears, where's our side of the Potomac? Nice map tho

[mitchnick]

18z Nam's a wreck.

I think we're better off if the 12/5 threat fizzled and left some energy behind for our next long shot.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z NBM is north relative to a lot of what we’re looking at it seems 

 

Feel like we can just play history here and say it's staying south and this model blend will correct that way (unfortunately)

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

im crying old bay tears, where's our side of the Potomac? Nice map tho

Hey I lived in Nova so I gotta cover the VA public schools as that’s where nearly every single one of them went. If you have a map that includes MD I’ll happy use that instead thougu!

[WEATHER53]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We’ve been in a Nina ish pacific base state for a long time. That isn’t good for gulf miller a type systems. 

Thanks 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And what about all the southern sliders fails with HPs being too strong? How much of that is bad luck/timing with an active NS?

With a weaker STJ and a stronger NS (both typical in a Nina base state) it's not unusual for a lot of these waves to end up too weak or suppressed.  There is a reason the snowfall minimum (wrt averages) is pretty much right over us in a Nina.  There is a better chance of more snow wrt average if you go in any direction...we are too far south for the NS dominant systems and too far north for the weaker STJ systems in a nina pattern.  This is a generalization and not to be applied to every situation...but it's going to end up truth in the means over the longer periods...what we have seen is not some bad luck, its what happens in this type of pattern.  We need to get out of it.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks 

I wasn't trying to be snarky or confrontational...I am sorry if it came off that way.  

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

With a weaker STJ and a stronger NS (both typical in a Nina base state) it's not unusual for a lot of these waves to end up too weak or suppressed.  There is a reason the snowfall minimum (wrt averages) is pretty much right over us in a Nina.  There is a better chance of more snow wrt average if you go in any direction...we are too far south for the NS dominant systems and too far north for the weaker STJ systems in a nina pattern.  This is a generalization and not to be applied to every situation...but it's going to end up truth in the means over the longer periods...what we have seen is not some bad luck, its what happens in this type of pattern.  We need to get out of it.  

I see. So your forecast...despite this you're sticking with it? I'm trying to figure out how we get to an 18-20" total given what you just laid out.

[MN Transplant]

13 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Nam's a wreck.

I think we're better off if the 12/5 threat fizzled and left some energy behind for our next long shot.

Less than 48 hours away and we have the NAM 3k with no accumulation north of Richmond and the Euro with 0.3” in NYC.

[Imgoinhungry]

Less than 48 hours away and we have the NAM 3k with no accumulation north of Richmond and the Euro with 0.3” in NYC.

NAM nailed the last one!


.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see. So your forecast...despite this you're sticking with it? I'm trying to figure out how we get to an 18-20" total given what you just laid out.

Not every situation follows that general rule. Several factors I weighted. I think the PDO is becoming more favorable and that matters more than an incredibly weak Nina. The fall pattern matched the snowier analogs I identified. We’re due. 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not every situation follows that general rule. Several factors I weighted. I think the PDO is becoming more favorable and that matters more than an incredibly weak Nina. The fall pattern matched the snowier analogs I identified. We’re due. 

We’re ahead of last year wrt PDO…

[stormy]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Is there another large area of high  pressure off the northeast coast preventing this cold highs  eastward movement and plunging it almost due south.?  Or a 50/50 type low too close to coast and blocking any eastward progression? 

We'll be close to a 50/50 but the trajectory of the HP is a little south of ideal at Ogdensburg.

[WEATHER53]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn't trying to be snarky or confrontational...I am sorry if it came off that way.  

No it did not and I appreciated the response 

[TSSN+]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Not every situation follows that general rule. Several factors I weighted. I think the PDO is becoming more favorable and that matters more than an incredibly weak Nina. The fall pattern matched the snowier analogs I identified. We’re due. 

It’s off the charts

 

[WEATHER53]

12 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Less than 48 hours away and we have the NAM 3k with no accumulation north of Richmond and the Euro with 0.3” in NYC.

CAB is very very real and needs to end 

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

CAB is very very real and needs to end 

we should stop using models and go back to pencil and paper like in the 936-1212 days

[87storms]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

we should stop using models and go back to pencil and paper like in the 936-1212 days

The days when models underestimated how often the mountains eat up our snow. Clippers were the source of many busts.

[WesternFringe]

Just now, 87storms said:

The days when models underestimated how often the mountains eat up our snow. Clippers were the source of many busts.

My wife's grandfather used to talk about the March 6, 1962 storm.  The forecasters the night before were calling for a few inches, and they woke up to a blizzard that ended up dropping 30.5" in Staunton.