Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

[Chicago Storm]

guidance is all over the place with the narrow snowfall axis for tonight.

past history would tell you that the border always cashes in on this type of scenario, though.

[A-L-E-K]

woodstock event

[Baum]

ILZ008-011>013-103-104-210630-   /O.EXB.KLOT.WW.Y.0004.260121T0400Z-260121T1400Z/   OGLE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-NORTHERN COOK-CENTRAL COOK-   INCLUDING THE CITIES OF SYCAMORE, CICERO, ELGIN, OAK LAWN, OAK   PARK, CHICAGO, BYRON, EVANSTON, PALATINE, OREGON, NAPERVILLE,   SCHAUMBURG, LOMBARD, NORTHBROOK, LA GRANGE, CAROL STREAM, AURORA,   ROCHELLE, DES PLAINES, DOWNERS GROVE, WHEATON, AND DEKALB   222 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026     ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM   CST WEDNESDAY...     * WHAT...SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW   ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES.     * WHERE...DE KALB, OGLE, CENTRAL COOK, DUPAGE, KANE, AND NORTHERN   COOK COUNTIES.     * WHEN...FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY.     * IMPACTS...PLAN ON SNOW COVERED, SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS, AND PERIODS   OF LOW VISIBILITY. THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE   WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.     * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO   OCCUR NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88 AND 290, WITH AMOUNTS   TAPERING DOWN TO TWO INCHES OR LESS WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT IN THE   ADVISORY AREA. THERE'S SOME POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVIER SNOW BAND TO   SET UP IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES, AND IF THIS OCCURS,   LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY REACH UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES.    

[Cary67]

Short range models don't seem to enthusiastic. Think 1" 

[Chicago Storm]

yea, i don't get that wwa expansion southward.

the trend today has been north and drier.

edit: latest rap and hrrr are completely dry across the area now.

[Baum]

8 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Short range models don't seem to enthusiastic. Think 1" 

That’s what my zone forecast calls for.

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

yea, i don't get that wwa expansion southward.

the trend today has been north and drier.

edit: latest rap and hrrr are completely dry across the area now.

Chuckled when I saw it, knew u would be triggered 

[Cary67]

58 minutes ago, Baum said:

That’s what my zone forecast calls for.

Mine was 2-4". Not sure will get there.

[A-L-E-K]

Radar is lol

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Radar is lol

Rough

[SchaumburgStormer]

40 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Radar is lol

Heavy virga warning in effect 

[cyclone77]

Getting a few flakes down to the surface now here beneath this 20DBZ band.  

[BeastFromTheEast]

Dry as a bone 

[ILSNOW]

10pm Milwaukee update

Snow is beginning to move into the region late this evening.
Area of banded snow that has been discussed over prior forecasts
is materializing from central Iowa east to the Wisconsin-
Illinois border, with lighter and more disorganized activity
apparent into west-central Wisconsin and southeast Minnesota.
Banded snow is blossoming along a band of 925-700 mb
frontogenesis that continues to sharpen to the northeast of a
developing surface low near Omaha, NE. With most pronounced
surface pressure falls apparent to the east of the low, expect
that the newly-developed surface low will track over south-
central Iowa and northwest Illinois through the overnight
period. Already beginning to play out in radar trends, this will
put our southernmost counties (particularly those near and
especially south of I-94 & US-18) in line for the greatest
banded snow potential through the overnight hours. Have thus
maintained the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory as-is, with the
expectation that the higher end of the forecasted 2 to 5 inch
totals will materialize closer to the Wisconsin-Illinois border.
Will continue to monitor through the overnight hours. Budget
extra travel time if commuting tomorrow morning, particularly
over the southern part of the area.

[hlcater]

Vis has been under 1 mile for the past hour or so. Eyeing about 1.5" down so far, which is already better than the NBM. CAM guidance was consistently north with this system, which will be a whiff.

[hawkeye_wx]

1 hour ago, hlcater said:

Vis has been under 1 mile for the past hour or so. Eyeing about 1.5" down so far, which is already better than the NBM. CAM guidance was consistently north with this system, which will be a whiff.

Meanwhile, a few miles to your south we got a couple tenths at first, but, even though radar suggested good snow for the last couple hours, it stopped snowing completely.  The southern edge snow must be drying up as it falls.

[TheNiño]

Once again SE WI actually cashing in. Moving here has been a blessing. Nothing major but not anything to scoff at either. Don’t mind my fallen over bird feeder and flag pole with no flag lol 

[A-L-E-K]

Dab-

[Baum]

And now I’ve got an Exteme Cold Watch…..who comes up with this shiat?

[A-L-E-K]

24 minutes ago, Baum said:

And now I’ve got an Exteme Cold Watch…..who comes up with this shiat?

close enough shade of blue that i will pretend it's a wsw for the impending dog

[cyclone77]

Picked up a T here.

[DocATL]

0.0 in Naperville. Glad we got that WWA.


.

[A-L-E-K]

bust classic^

[michsnowfreak]

Was worried about a bust with the hrrr moving everything north, but snowing and blowing nicely. Approaching 2" new. Very wintry out

[SchaumburgStormer]

53 minutes ago, DocATL said:

0.0 in Naperville. Glad we got that WWA.


.

Maybe a dab here

[Stevo6899]

Gonna be a few spots that get 4-6 central oakland/macomb. No big dog but only fitting my backyard jackpots on back to back events when im not there. A true winter though I will say with the snow depth and temps incoming. Long overdue for a rough winter.

[mimillman]

27 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Was worried about a bust with the hrrr moving everything north, but snowing and blowing nicely. Approaching 2" new. Very wintry out

Glad to see the Michigan snow desert is finally catching in after consistently lagging Chicago year after year 

[Stevo6899]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Glad to see the Michigan snow desert is finally catching in after consistently lagging Chicago year after year 

That's me that says that, not josh. Dont poke the bear or he will stat you 6 feet into the ground.

[sbnwx85]

DAB here with maybe another half hour of snow to fall. 

[Cary67]

Slightly more than a broom needed. About 1.0"