First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ORH_wxman]

The only time I would bring in sun angle in December is if we have like a light glazing situation with temps near freezing....that actually happened in the Dec 2008 ice storm....we were having trouble accreting during the day on 12/11 with temps of like 31F, but it went to town when the sun set. 

Maybe it would also make a difference if you were having like a steady light snow near 32F. So maybe in the first few hours of this storm it could have a marginal impact, but it's not doing anything once you get to moderate rates. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

If you just showed me that low track, even this time of year would offer interesting weather. A shame the high retreats prior. 

The same turd in the punch bowl, just a different year. 

[Snowcrazed71]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus...between winter solstice sun angle trepidation and 2-11" ranges WTF is going on at BOX? Did they put @Snowcrazed71in charge?

Wtf .. what the heck did I do.... Lol  I'm not a meteorologist, I'm just here to talk about what I like. I never claimed to know anything. Are you a meteorologist? I can't remember

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Will be the new replacement for Nam and hrrr. Sometime in 2026 but it still needs work. 

Is it going to inherit the NAM's legacy physics, or be a uniquely new tool -

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Wtf .. what the heck did I do.... Lol  I'm not a meteorologist, I'm just here to talk about what I like. I never claimed to know anything. Are you a meteorologist? I can't remember

Nope, so glad I'm not in charge, either.

[Snowcrazed71]

17 minutes ago, KTBFFH1905 said:

Hoping for at least 3-6 for us here in Avon.

 

I do think you have a better shot than me. I used to live in Avon right on the Canton line. I remember going into work to West Hartford. I would always do better when it came to the amount of snow than West Hartford.... Especially for the elevation events.  

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Is it going to inherit the NAM's legacy physics, or be a uniquely new tool -

I think some of the underlining physics and what not are changing? But I’d have to look into that.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

OMFG. Shoot whoever said that, to the sun. 

Where do these guys get their education from…the Pope? 

[CoastalWx]

Man hrrr is a furnace. Not sure I buy that either.

[ineedsnow]

12z HRRR is  for many

[ariof]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

12z HRRR is  for many

Watch the NAM bring SN to ACK for the 12Z run.

[dendrite]

HRRR looks good

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

12z HRRR is  for many

Barely gets you down to 32 lol.

[jbenedet]

When people lump my climo in with DAW…while I’m 8 miles southeast… and 200 ft lower in elevation. Just shake my head.

This is like the 20th time in 10 years that the coastal front will be right over my head.

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man hrrr is a furnace. Not sure I buy that either.

Lol, basically has no snow in SNE outside of far N ORH county and N Berkshires. Completely different evolution though...doesn't close off 850 until way later than other guidance. 

[Typhoon Tip]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The only time I would bring in sun angle in December is if we have like a light glazing situation with temps near freezing....that actually happened in the Dec 2008 ice storm....we were having trouble accreting during the day on 12/11 with temps of like 31F, but it went to town when the sun set. 

Maybe it would also make a difference if you were having like a steady light snow near 32F. So maybe in the first few hours of this storm it could have a marginal impact, but it's not doing anything once you get to moderate rates. 

Yeah between ~ Nov 10 and Feb 10, that range gets the lowest solar insolation.  We can get away with at least holding ice between 10 and 2pm in icing situations at 32/no new... vs losing at that same temperature and marginal condition outside that date range. 

[jbenedet]

The daytime onset is just a very marginal factor negatively affecting an already very marginal snow setup. 
 

It would be more credible to stack a warm ground 50F SST’s and the daytime onset for reasons against going higher.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, basically has no snow in SNE outside of far N ORH county and N Berkshires. Completely different evolution though...doesn't close off 850 until way later than other guidance. 

Let’s get Dendrite CF enhancement. 

[WinterWolf]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I get that other guidance has got better, But you use to be able to lock the Euro inside 84hrs, Those days are gone.

This is what I mean.  Once it locked in…it was deadly.  Whatever they did to it(supposedly to make it better), totally messed it up. And all the upgrades since have made it even worse. What a dam shame.  Talk about if ain’t broke, don’t fix it. 
 

And it’s hilarious how some pros will defend it till the end, and say it’s better now cuz it nails the 850’s in the Southern Hemisphere down in Argentina.  

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is gonna be more amped than 06z just based on 12 hour panel. 

[jbenedet]

The mesos have been flagging ptype issues off an on for a while along the coast. Now the euro saying the same.
 

FV3 hi-res also been very warm.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Epstein mentioned the non-frozen ground as a factor for roads in his podcast this morning (just for the marginal areas). 

[CoastalWx]

It’s also going to be cold tonight in those spots that get snow. Should have no issue sticking if you’re near 32 or below. Hell 33F aggies will have no issue sticking. 

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Epstein mentioned the non-frozen ground as a factor for roads in his podcast this morning (just for the marginal areas). 

Yeah that is going to be a factor with a marginal airmass on the cp

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z HRRR is  for many

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Epstein mentioned the non-frozen ground as a factor for roads in his podcast this morning (just for the marginal areas). 

TBH.... I don't expect the roads to be snowy during the daytime on Tuesday around the Hartford area, but once the sun goes down, I think that will change.

[CoastalWx]

NAM will probably nuke closer to the cape if it did that at 6z.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

When people lump my climo in with DAW…while I’m 8 miles southeast… and 200 ft lower in elevation. Just shake my head.

This is like the 20th time in 10 years that the coastal front will be right over my head.

 

I know several people who live in that area and they would agree with your post..

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Let’s get Dendrite CF enhancement. 

HRRR is likely overdone. N ORH county jack with the max axis to the NH/MA border by Ray is my call. 

[jbenedet]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I know several people who live in that area and they would agree with your post..

The Great Bay being some 10 miles inland is an important factor that I think only the locals can fully appreciate.