ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said: Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy. I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Nasty forecast here…if gradient is closer to 128, then we rip here. If it’s more like just outside of 495, we’re in trouble. I think ORH to Ray’s area is in good shape. I hope you're right. If you draw a line from Worcester to Methuen, it passes straight through Lowell. The GFS sounding at 00 has the temp at 32F around 950. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. It’s only got a couple of years. just for fun, read the AI 2027 report Wont matter eventually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. It's going to take a significant resolution upgrade in order for the AI models to make the jump. Outputs look smoothed, especially at long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It’s only got a couple of years. just for fun, read the AI 2027 report Wont matter eventually. The ultimate inhibitor is going to be initialization. That’s always the main issue. That’s something that even AI can’t solve easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved. These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved. These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available. Have AI to write the code for you. All you need is the logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 What’s the KFS AI have? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Just now, CoastalWx said: What’s the KFS AI have? Raines to Maines 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Just now, kdxken said: Have AI to write the code for you. All you need is the logic. Might be a little too new to do that just yet. The documentation for using their API's needs to get added into the training so they can understand when queried. A fully trained programmer familiar with Google Cloud could probably figure it out. That is not I. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 No surprise Nam has cooled 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids. Pasty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Our first call map. Don't really think it changes much but we'll see. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 NAM is juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Pasty? Would be yeah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Yup has rain/snow line flash collapse SE look to it. … probably in the process of correcting it’s native NW bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Wagons south Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Just now, 78Blizzard said: Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro. Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south. Yeah that was never going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 HRRR extended has trended that way too like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah that was never going to happen 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south. Hmm not what was said by some yahoo rains to Maines 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Just now, CoastalWx said: Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south. Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AstronomyEnjoyer Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 Latest (01z) NWS Blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm not what was said by some yahoo rains to Maines He’s had a rough week lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. Until the Euro moves more, it literally has had the same general look for days, color me skeptical as every trend for the major models has been south. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said: Latest (21z) NWS Blend. I will gladly take 2-4 here. For those who said they would rather have nothing than 1-3/2-4... They might as well get off this thread and wait for the "BIG" one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. Can we get a Euro track with Nam dynamics? lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2025 Share Posted December 1, 2025 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: He’s had a rough year lol True 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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