First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. 

The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy.

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nasty forecast here…if gradient is closer to 128, then we rip here. If it’s more like just outside of 495, we’re in trouble. 
 

I think ORH to Ray’s area is in good shape. 

I hope you're right. If you draw a line from Worcester to Methuen, it passes straight through Lowell. The GFS sounding at 00 has the temp at 32F around 950.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

It’s only got a couple of years.  
 

just for fun, read the AI 2027 report

Wont matter eventually. 

[Boston Bulldog]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

It's going to take a significant resolution upgrade in order for the AI models to make the jump. Outputs look smoothed, especially at long range

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s only got a couple of years.  
 

just for fun, read the AI 2027 report

Wont matter eventually. 

The ultimate inhibitor is going to be initialization. That’s always the main issue. That’s something that even AI can’t solve easily. 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved.  These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved.  These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

Have AI to write the code for you. All you need is the logic.

[CoastalWx]

What’s the KFS AI have?

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What’s the KFS AI have?

Raines to Maines

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, kdxken said:

Have AI to write the code for you. All you need is the logic.

Might be a little too new to do that just yet.  The documentation for using their API's needs to get added into the training so they can understand when queried.  A fully trained programmer familiar with Google Cloud could probably figure it out.  That is not I.

[CoastalWx]

No surprise Nam has cooled

[CoastalWx]

NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids.

Pasty?

[WxWatcher007]

Our first call map. Don't really think it changes much but we'll see. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM is juicy.  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pasty?

Would be yeah 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup 

has rain/snow line flash collapse SE look to it. 
… probably in the process of correcting it’s native NW bias 

[Ginx snewx]

Wagons south

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wagons south

Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro.

Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south.

Yeah that was never going to happen 

[powderfreak]

HRRR extended has trended that way too like the NAM.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah that was never going to happen 

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south.

Hmm not what was said by some yahoo rains to Maines

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Nam was jacking NNe. I mean it had to come south.

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Latest (01z) NWS Blend.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Hmm not what was said by some yahoo rains to Maines

He’s had a rough week lol

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. 

Until the Euro moves more, it literally has had the same general look for days, color me skeptical as every trend for the major models has been south.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Latest (21z) NWS Blend.

I will gladly take 2-4 here. For those who said they would rather have nothing than 1-3/2-4... They might as well get off this thread and wait for the "BIG" one. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we were tossing those NAM solutions with lots of confidence at 72-84 hours. It was well beyond what even the most amped globals had. I think the most surprising aspect is how little the euro has moved. If anything it moved south until finally ticking back north a little at 18z. I kind of expect a pretty even compromise between it and GFS now which will end up as the common 70/30 from a couple days ago. 

Can we get a Euro track with Nam dynamics? lol. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He’s had a rough year lol

True