First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Pretty bad medium range fumble by the Euro-AI. A bit more concerning was just how long and arduous the cave back towards the globals was. Once outputs began to trend, corrections were steady and incremental but far too slow for me to take runs seriously for several days. Model outputs aren't very useful if it's obvious they're playing catch up. 

The AI Models as they currently stand are a great new tool, but I don't think they're ready to compete with the globals... yet. I guess I currently treat them akin to the Canadian, maybe a tick below. However, I think that in a couple years we may have significant disruption of the current model heirarchy.

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nasty forecast here…if gradient is closer to 128, then we rip here. If it’s more like just outside of 495, we’re in trouble. 
 

I think ORH to Ray’s area is in good shape. 

I hope you're right. If you draw a line from Worcester to Methuen, it passes straight through Lowell. The GFS sounding at 00 has the temp at 32F around 950.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

It’s only got a couple of years.  
 

just for fun, read the AI 2027 report

Wont matter eventually. 

[Boston Bulldog]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

It's going to take a significant resolution upgrade in order for the AI models to make the jump. Outputs look smoothed, especially at long range

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It’s only got a couple of years.  
 

just for fun, read the AI 2027 report

Wont matter eventually. 

The ultimate inhibitor is going to be initialization. That’s always the main issue. That’s something that even AI can’t solve easily. 

[bristolri_wx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m assuming AI will eventually learn from its errors. But it’s prob gonna be a bumpy road. 

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved.  These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said:

Would love to figure out how to run the latest Google weather models but above my level in programming, and there's costs involved.  These are supposedly the most advanced AI based weather models available.

Have AI to write the code for you. All you need is the logic.

[CoastalWx]

What’s the KFS AI have?

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What’s the KFS AI have?

Raines to Maines

[bristolri_wx]

Just now, kdxken said:

Have AI to write the code for you. All you need is the logic.

Might be a little too new to do that just yet.  The documentation for using their API's needs to get added into the training so they can understand when queried.  A fully trained programmer familiar with Google Cloud could probably figure it out.  That is not I.

[CoastalWx]

No surprise Nam has cooled

[CoastalWx]

NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM takes rays grid down. Let’s have no power with 4 kids.

Pasty?

[WxWatcher007]

Our first call map. Don't really think it changes much but we'll see. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM is juicy.  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Pasty?

Would be yeah 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yup 

has rain/snow line flash collapse SE look to it. 
… probably in the process of correcting it’s native NW bias 

[Ginx snewx]

Wagons south

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wagons south

Looks to me like the cave is coming from other than the Euro.