Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WestMichigan]

18z GFS hits Michigan pretty good around hour 240.  Nice to at least see something with decent QPF in the area.  LES is great but it would be nice to see a big one at least once this winter.

[A-L-E-K]

these doldrum periods are the worst

 

[cyclone77]

Could make a run at 60 on Monday.  

[DocATL]

The doldrums are northwest flow and tundra life. With warm temps on the horizon, it’s rather uplifting.

[A-L-E-K]

gfs coming in terrible

 

[Malacka11]

Yeah basically looks like the rest of the season can be written off at this point.  First torch is already locked in and after that I'd rather just save the ol' climo luck points for next season 

[Chicago Storm]

ya’ll are fun to watch.

[ILSNOW]

to bad the GFS doesnt go another 6 hours to 390 because 

[Powerball]

Just now, ILSNOW said:

to bad the GFS doesnt go another 6 hours to 390 because 

 

MSP special...

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Yeah basically looks like the rest of the season can be written off at this point.  First torch is already locked in and after that I'd rather just save the ol' climo luck points for next season 

Just 5 days ago the CPC predicted BN temps and normal precip for the month of February. lol

[Malacka11]

58 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Just 5 days ago the CPC predicted BN temps and normal precip for the month of February. lol

Right.  And I'm sure Joe wouldn't be shocked if we reel a storm in either after all in a week or two, since he never really recanted his prior optimism in favor of remaining aloof.  My point is that the second issues like sun angle and shit become a problem, I'd rather just save our year-to-year pretend climo snowfall luck for next season. 

If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great.  Too bad we couldn't get it in December. Normally I'd be here excited for the DABs we've got coming but again, it's completely futile because we're completely resetting next week it seems.  

I understand this is a personal banter take but 

[McHenrySnow]

5 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Right.  And I'm sure Joe wouldn't be shocked if we reel a storm in either after all in a week or two, since he never really recanted his prior optimism in favor of remaining aloof.  My point is that the second issues like sun angle and shit become a problem, I'd rather just save our year-to-year pretend climo snowfall luck for next season. 

If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great.  Too bad we couldn't get it in December. Normally I'd be here excited for the DABs we've got coming but again, it's completely futile because we're completely resetting next week it seems.  

I understand this is a personal banter take but 

 No, I agree with your overall sentiment, I'm just one of the few who wants it to snow whenever it can no matter how long it lasts. Obviously, I prefer 6" or more that stays on the ground for a few weeks, at least, but desperate times......we'll probably overperform on the Thursday night/Friday morning clipper solely because it will all melt a few hours later. That has happened twice to me this winter. Melting snow is truly one of the most depressing things for me. Everyone goes on about SAD in the winter meanwhile I have SAD from April through November. 

[Spartman]

2 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Yeah basically looks like the rest of the season can be written off at this point.  First torch is already locked in and after that I'd rather just save the ol' climo luck points for next season 

Repeat of February 2018 incoming

[A-L-E-K]

east coast pattern redux?

[Chicago Storm]

21 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

east coast pattern redux?

still waiting on that to show up and work out for them.

at least the carolinas cashed in.

[DocATL]

east coast pattern redux?

But some variability here. Between the Canadian, American, and European models it’s either the northeast, mid Atlantic, or upper south that gets the goods. I’ll tell you who ain’t getting the goods though. I’m no expert but no signs of anything favorable for us. Eager to be shown otherwise!

[Nelson]

Just happy that it looks like that western ridge is finally going to break down/back the f off into the Pacific and give us some chances. I'll take that over the sh*t we've been dealing with.

[Chicago Storm]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

And I'm sure Joe wouldn't be shocked if we reel a storm in either after all in a week or two, since he never really recanted his prior optimism in favor of remaining aloof. 

there is no pessimism on this end.

[CheeselandSkies]

We need to start an American WX winter season thread bingo card.

East coast pattern

zzzzzzzz

(Next month) be rockin'

CAD

(Beavis rant)

...etc.

[DocATL]

We need to start an American WX winter season thread bingo card.
East coast pattern
zzzzzzzz
(Next month) be rockin'
CAD
(Beavis rant)
...etc.

I mean…my whole card is covered. Bingo!!!

[beavis1729]

3 hours ago, McHenrySnow said:

 No, I agree with your overall sentiment, I'm just one of the few who wants it to snow whenever it can no matter how long it lasts. Obviously, I prefer 6" or more that stays on the ground for a few weeks, at least, but desperate times......we'll probably overperform on the Thursday night/Friday morning clipper solely because it will all melt a few hours later. That has happened twice to me this winter. Melting snow is truly one of the most depressing things for me. Everyone goes on about SAD in the winter meanwhile I have SAD from April through November. 

Beavis #2, ha ha 

[Cary67]

Benjamin Button words of wisdom

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, beavis1729 said:

Beavis #2, ha ha 

And to think we're neighbors, too, so we can suffer together.

[Chicago Storm]

where’s the doom and gloom squad after the 0z runs?

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzz

rainer and another miss east, not my bag

[Malacka11]

6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

where’s the doom and gloom squad after the 0z runs?

 

17 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great.  Too bad we couldn't get it in December. 

 

[Stebo]

Too many Eeyores around here. I am pretty sure other than Iowa, most of us are at or above normal for the season.

[A-L-E-K]

[Stebo]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

I mean there is potential systems out there in an active pattern, you know you gotta sniff rain to get a big dog too. I'll take this look over CAD any day.

[DocATL]

where’s the doom and gloom squad after the 0z runs?

We’re back this morning, baby!!

The miss to the south would be in keeping with tradition but I’d guess this just trends warmer.