Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mimillman]

Looks like an angry Pacific and some soakers in our future 

[Cary67]

From LOT AFD:

Also have to point out a growing signal for a southwest-flow
synoptic scale cyclone somewhere east of the Rocky Mountains in
the February 11-14 timeframe, with both the GEFS/EPS already
favoring our area being on the warm side. Should a cyclone
actually develop and we end up on the warm side, could easily
envision forecast focus trending toward hydrology concerns
considering the frost depth of just deeper than 13 inches at our
office isn`t going to vanish anytime soon.

[DocATL]

https://x.com/nilwxreports/status/2018333193288434115?s=46

Finally we get a break!

[BeastFromTheEast]

Sun angle concerns right around the corner as well! Have about a 3 week window here to cash in on a big-dog and then it’s on to spring.  

[Powerball]

Definitely highly skeptical of the current projections beyond the 7 day period with a supposed PV stretch (some are calling it a SSW event, but that's such an overused term and not really accurate) happening...

[A-L-E-K]

pure zzzzzs

[DocATL]

We’re gonna Zzzzz our way to March, folks.

[Chicago Storm]

Definitely highly skeptical of the current projections beyond the 7 day period with a supposed PV stretch (some are calling it a SSW event, but that's such an overused term and not really accurate) happening...

I’d put the number around 50%, in terms of ENS showing an actual SSWE.

[TheClimateChanger]

Some light at the end of the tunnel, especially for our western friends.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Definitely highly skeptical of the current projections beyond the 7 day period with a supposed PV stretch (some are calling it a SSW event, but that's such an overused term and not really accurate) happening...

One thing I've come to learn, after considering it a dirty word following '14 and '18, is that not all SSWEs are created equal (as in, they don't always put the cold into our neck of the woods, which I'd be just fine with given the brutal stretch we're only just finally coming out of).

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

One thing I've come to learn, after considering it a dirty word following '14 and '18, is that not all SSWEs are created equal (as in, they don't always put the cold into our neck of the woods, which I'd be just fine with given the brutal stretch we're only just finally coming out of).

A lot of these PV Stretch / SSW events have been happening well into Met Spring as of late though, so the cold anomalies do end up eventually happening, but relative to average and thus haven't been all that cold.

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Some light at the end of the tunnel, especially for our western friends.

Light at the end of the tunnel? Are you fucking kidding me? 

[cyclone77]

Looks like another Michigan clipper later this week, and then maybe a rainer later next week.  Exciting times ahead.

[mimillman]

On 2/1/2026 at 12:28 PM, mimillman said:

Torch incoming 

Revenge of the west. Pacific angry. Torch and Feb thunderstorm pattern ahead 

[A-L-E-K]

zzzzzzzzz

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

zzzzzzzzz

For sure. This week.

[A-L-E-K]

march will be rocking?

[DocATL]

I was told there would be better winter weather opportunities ahead. Are we banking on an April surprise?


.

[mimillman]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

march will be rocking?

Torch

[A-L-E-K]

definitely looks that way, maybe some 60s before too long?

[RCNYILWX]

There definitely looks to be a warm period next week as the western ridge finally slides east. After that, there's reasons to think the pattern could be workable for parts of the region next weekend and beyond. Key feature would be the continued west based -NAO and to a lesser extent the AO.

Based on stratospheric discussion the past few days, there could be some flux in the polar domains which may affect predictability farther out. The EPO is currently modeled to trend strongly positive for a time, but then become less strongly positive. A positive EPO certainly points towards a generally warmer pattern. But the magnitude matters, and in February, a -NAO could do more work given the thick snow and ice cover over Canada vs earlier in the season.

The way I see it, the risk is absolutely there for warmer systems, but the -PNA at least gives a chance for decent storms coming out of the southwest. Since it appears the NAO should remain generally negative, you can still get snow/ice threats even in an unfavorable EPO setting (assuming that holds as modeled). Seems like a pattern in which being farther west and north would tend to be more helpful with a fairly potent southeast ridge favored.

I'd prefer to roll the dice with this than more endless cold northwest flow. Even if winter threats don't work out, I'm personally over the persistent cold weather we've had since mid January.

[A-L-E-K]

looped the goofus...sigh

[Frog Town]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

looped the goofus...sigh

Goofus says what torch..

[McHenrySnow]

1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

There definitely looks to be a warm period next week as the western ridge finally slides east. After that, there's reasons to think the pattern could be workable for parts of the region next weekend and beyond. Key feature would be the continued west based -NAO and to a lesser extent the AO.

Based on stratospheric discussion the past few days, there could be some flux in the polar domains which may affect predictability farther out. The EPO is currently modeled to trend strongly positive for a time, but then become less strongly positive. A positive EPO certainly points towards a generally warmer pattern. But the magnitude matters, and in February, a -NAO could do more work given the thick snow and ice cover over Canada vs earlier in the season.

The way I see it, the risk is absolutely there for warmer systems, but the -PNA at least gives a chance for decent storms coming out of the southwest. Since it appears the NAO should remain generally negative, you can still get snow/ice threats even in an unfavorable EPO setting (assuming that holds as modeled). Seems like a pattern in which being farther west and north would tend to be more helpful with a fairly potent southeast ridge favored.

I'd prefer to roll the dice with this than more endless cold northwest flow. Even if winter threats don't work out, I'm personally over the persistent cold weather we've had since mid January.


 

I'm not over the cold (never will be), but agree I'd risk warmer weather if it meant some actual moisture, some of which actually falls as snow. We need the moisture regardless, but rain right now is not going to be soaked into the ground, unfortunately. 

[sbnwx85]

Not excited to reveal the buried treasures left behind by the dogs since mid-January. 

[buckeye]

25 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

Not excited to reveal the buried treasures left behind by the dogs since mid-January. 

yup, ugliest part of winter is right after an extended snow cover melts off and you're left with gray parking lot piles of snow, mud, and everything just looks dirty and salt-stained.   

[buckeye]

meh, it was a fun ride for a few weeks, we have one more accumulater/stat padder here in Ohio on Friday and then I hope we put a nail in the coffin for this winter.    Ready for some severe and abnormally warm temps!

[TheClimateChanger]

9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

march will be rocking?

Snowbirdbob confirms:

[Chicago Storm]

Snowbirdbob confirms:

that dude/page is literally the worst thing out there, by far.