Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

7 hours ago, Powerball said:

It's definitely michsnowfreak's time for sure this winter

Nickel & dimed to death, but mostly consistent snowcover and cold, lol...

Ive loved it...though I do want a big storm.

[cyclone77]

Only 6 more weeks till we gotta start worrying about the sun angle.  

[RogueWaves]

11 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Remember the hot start?

Never concerned - still going up here.

[Baum]

11 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Never concerned - still going up here.

Yup. Just had a week of pure winter. 20’s and two dusters. Long long way to go in these parts. Of course, if your banking on endless days of cold and snow that rarely happens in these parts. Seen winters where the first real snow didn’t hit until a foot on the last day of January. Actually going to enjoy the 40’s and hopefully a salt washer at weeks end. Probably, snow 20” after next week to close out the month.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz

[Baum]

18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzzz

SUNDAY NIGHT   MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING, THEN BECOMING   PARTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING.   NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO   10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.

[RogueWaves]

On 1/2/2026 at 7:44 AM, Stevo6899 said:

Its good to see you've come over to the dark side with me. 6 years plus since detroits seen a storm over 8 inches I think.

You talkin Detroit proper (city of) and/or DTW or just the Metro. Metro had the nice 8-12" pounding 3-3-23. Saw SUV's stuck - something I never expected in Canton.

[hawkeye_wx]

The GFS and Euro have flipped with the late-week system coming from the sw.  The GFS had widespread rain while the Euro missed well southeast.  Now the Euro is wet and the GFS is suppressed and dry.  The latest GFS doesn't have a flake or drop through Jan 20th.

[Jackstraw]

I'll take the 00Z GFS weenies for a 1000 _Plz lol.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The GFS and Euro have flipped with the late-week system coming from the sw.  The GFS had widespread rain while the Euro missed well southeast.  Now the Euro is wet and the GFS is suppressed and dry.  The latest GFS doesn't have a flake or drop through Jan 20th.

Model mayhem at d6 - sounds rather normal tbh

[cyclone77]

At least there's something to watch.  I'll take a rainer over nothing TBH.

[Brian D]

TBH, I like Feb for the sub. It's going to be something to watch unfold. It could end up be a rather wild month.

[mimillman]

Pacific just looks awful 

[Harry Perry]

Pattern is great for a good storm, but we just can’t get the northern/southern to phase where we need. Leads to messy SLP’s with marginal thermals - at least over in my neck of the woods. Looks somewhat better further west across Iowa, western Wisconsin and Minnesota but even then it ejects so fast that any snow will be a quick hitter. 

And what do you know, the arctic air comes back mid month with storm track across the southern US lol. 
 

 

[Frog Town]

Said it 1000x's already, we NEED the mean trough to be anchored in the upper Midwest/Plains for use to get what we want.  Anything over the Great lakes is thread the needle hybrids and clippers, or what we've had the past two winters.  Arctic air hitting  the great lakes is what we want to happen after a big dog..

There is light at the end of the tunnel if the ENSO/Pacific can transition to a neutral as the it appears to be doing towards the middle of January.   Question is, will it be too late??

[A-L-E-K]

idk about wrap around snow chances from the late goofy phase but gfs selling a nice and much needed heavy rain event

[OHweather]

The pattern the next week or so is pretty awful...massive trough over Alaska and near the west coast of Canada. But the ensembles have consistently suggested a ridge from just off the west coast into Alaska returning around mid January, with some cross polar flow into a deepening trough centered near Hudson Bay. The imminent torch will scour a lot of the cold air out of North America so the pattern likely won't immediately flip to something extremely cold after mid month (will take a little time for true arctic air to return), but some semblance of winter should return in 10-15 days if this look (which is pretty consistent across the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles) is close to correct.

Euro ensemble:

GFS ensemble:

Canadian ensemble:

[DocATL]

idk about wrap around snow chances from the late goofy phase but gfs selling a nice and much needed heavy rain event

Wash away the salt before spring…oh and drought relief, yes that too!

[Chicago Storm]

the extended looks interesting.

[sbnwx85]

18z GFS would make the Bears/Packers game very entertaining.

[A-L-E-K]

13 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

the extended looks interesting.

[A-L-E-K]

[ILSNOW]

12z Euro pounds us with 2-4 inches on Saturday

[Baum]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Euro pounds us with 2-4 inches on Saturday

Start the thread: Bear Down Thump Event

[A-L-E-K]

1 hour ago, ILSNOW said:

12z Euro pounds us with 2-4 inches on Saturday

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Oh, *bleep*. Hard pass on that look for me.