Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[DocATL]

PNA going negative for a long time. You know it’s bad when even BAM weather thinks the pacific pattern stays stagnant for the foreseeable future. That said you only hate the idea of warmth. Once it hits your skin, you love it.

[buckeye]

1 hour ago, DocATL said:

PNA going negative for a long time. You know it’s bad when even BAM weather thinks the pacific pattern stays stagnant for the foreseeable future. That said you only hate the idea of warmth. Once it hits your skin, you love it.

Amen

[buckeye]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

february will be rocking?

punt'n Jan?

[DocATL]

punt'n Jan?

I mean it’s 4th down deep in our own territory.


.

[Geoboy645]

This winter reminds me a lot of 22-23 just shifted 2 weeks earlier. Early cold and snowy period followed by a long period of storminess on the W Coast and warmth here in January. Hopefully this means we get a 22-23 like rally in February and it gets done by March 15th this time around. Madison and Green Bay recorded around 50 inches of snow in the Feb 15th to April 1st rally in 22-23. Something like that but a bit more spread the wealth and earlier would be nice to say the least.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

51 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

This winter reminds me a lot of 22-23 just shifted 2 weeks earlier. Early cold and snowy period followed by a long period of storminess on the W Coast and warmth here in January. Hopefully this means we get a 22-23 like rally in February and it gets done by March 15th this time around. Madison and Green Bay recorded around 50 inches of snow in the Feb 15th to April 1st rally in 22-23. Something like that but a bit more spread the wealth and earlier would be nice to say the least.

22/23 was a good time at MSP

3rd snowiest winter on record - 90.3”

9th longest 1” consecutive snow depth streak - 117 days

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Geoboy645 said:

This winter reminds me a lot of 22-23 just shifted 2 weeks earlier. Early cold and snowy period followed by a long period of storminess on the W Coast and warmth here in January. Hopefully this means we get a 22-23 like rally in February and it gets done by March 15th this time around. Madison and Green Bay recorded around 50 inches of snow in the Feb 15th to April 1st rally in 22-23. Something like that but a bit more spread the wealth and earlier would be nice to say the least.

This doesn't remind me of 2022-23 at all. That was a brutal cold shot but it lasted like 5-7 days. We had a solid 3+ weeks of cold/snow in the region this time. And this break isn't necessarily going to last as long as some of these posts imply. Per both the euro and cfs weeklies the above avg temps are gone before the end of the first week of Jan in the Lakes (add one more seek for thr southern sub). And there will be fleeting snow chances before then.

[A-L-E-K]

8 hours ago, buckeye said:

punt'n Jan?

Tone sincere: not necessarily

But despite the hot start, this season still has dud stank

[Chambana]

Seeing this huge lull in the winter season after the hot start, really just puts into perspective how truly legendary the great winter of 2013-2014 truly was. 

[CheeselandSkies]

15 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

This winter reminds me a lot of 22-23 just shifted 2 weeks earlier. Early cold and snowy period followed by a long period of storminess on the W Coast and warmth here in January. Hopefully this means we get a 22-23 like rally in February and it gets done by March 15th this time around. Madison and Green Bay recorded around 50 inches of snow in the Feb 15th to April 1st rally in 22-23. Something like that but a bit more spread the wealth and earlier would be nice to say the least.

Hey, by the last day of March 2023 I was shooting in Iowa so I'll take it.

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Baum]

Hearing rumors my 60 degree Christmas is getting flushed.

[michsnowfreak]

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

[roardog]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

A canonical la nina is a VERY roller coaster ride- more roller coaster than typical climo. So expect tons of model chaos the rest of the winter. Our region is definitely a better place to be than the east or especially south. But just be warned...there's likely plenty of excitement and disappointment ahead.

07-08 is what I picture when I think of a canonical Nina around here. 

[michsnowfreak]

42 minutes ago, roardog said:

07-08 is what I picture when I think of a canonical Nina around here. 

Yessir!

[nvck]

On 12/17/2025 at 9:13 AM, nvck said:

https://x.com/i/status/2001009884540834205

Fwiw (not much, probably)

 

You'll never guess what the new one looks like...

[frostfern]

9 hours ago, Baum said:

Hearing rumors my 60 degree Christmas is getting flushed.

Sad.  So long as snow is gone the warmer the better as far as I’m concerned.  Really, anything is better than upper 30s / low 40s turd weather.

[sbnwx85]

4 hours ago, nvck said:

 

You'll never guess what the new one looks like...

I like watching BAM’s videos for how unhinged he’s becoming. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

0Z GFS is wanting to utterly nuke Grand Rapids to Detroit  with an ice storm the day after Christmas 

 

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

17 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z GFS is wanting to utterly nuke Grand Rapids to Detroit  with an ice storm the day after Christmas 

 

The cutoff between 6+ inches of snow and nothing is pretty sharp too. 

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Euro also has pretty widespread freezing rain up to the border, definitely something to watch 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzz

[Baum]

23 hours ago, Baum said:

Hearing rumors my 60 degree Christmas is getting flushed.

Confirmed.

[nvck]

15 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

I like watching BAM’s videos for how unhinged he’s becoming. 

bro has been crashing out on twitter too

[A-L-E-K]

barely even checking models these days

[cyclone77]

Looks like some action coming for the Michigan peeps.  For the rest of us...crickets.

[hawkeye_wx]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

barely even checking models these days

Yeah, models are out through the first week of January and there is nothing.  We'll probably end up with a 1-to-2-week period of snow and cold later in January or February and that'll be it for winter.  That seems to be the way it works now.

[Harry Perry]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

barely even checking models these days

Checked last night for the first time in days.
 

Trying to cut back.