Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Geoboy645]

If this incoming ridge pattern was in June or July, it would be a ridge rider pattern with MCS's every night. Good thing it's *checks notes* the week of Christmas. 

[A-L-E-K]

On 12/12/2025 at 1:09 PM, A-L-E-K said:

 

[cyclone77]

It'd be nice to take advantage of the warmth and get some thunderstorm action but looks like the systems will be very wimpy the next 10-15 days.

[A-L-E-K]

we deserve better

[TheClimateChanger]

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

we deserve better

Wow, that's a lot of rain on top of the ongoing flooding in the Pacific Northwest.

[A-L-E-K]

unrelenting pac jet ftw there

[michsnowfreak]

White Christmas looking unlikely. Bummer, but we've had snowcover the entire Christmas season to now, so thats been nice. 

After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter. 

[frostfern]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

White Christmas looking unlikely. Bummer, but we've had snowcover the entire Christmas season to now, so thats been nice. 

After the holiday mild period, will be interesting to see if Jan-Feb takes on a classic nina like roller coaster pattern. With plenty of cold in Canada and plenty of warmth to the south, that may just be in the offing as we head deeper into winter. 

I think I will still have snow *banks* even if grass is mostly visible.  Also got a pile around 20’ tall at the local mall.  Got to plow that sucker for the people doing donuts every Saturday night.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, frostfern said:

I think I will still have snow *banks* even if grass is mostly visible.  Also got a pile around 20’ tall at the local mall.  Got to plow that sucker for the people doing donuts every Saturday night.

Theres a large pile at the mall here. That will be here all winter. But the rest, stay tuned lol.

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

we deserve better

That's a great pattern for the Donners @ Donner Pass.

[Baum]

Even today felt great out. Once I accept the pattern change I’m all for clearing out the slop.

[nwohweather]

I found 3 instances at Detroit where more than half the seasons snowfall fell by December 15th.
Thru Dec 15...season total
2005-06: 21.0"...36.3"
1890-91: 17.2"...31.4"
1932-33: 13.1"...25.9"
For comparison, season average is 42.7" with avg to Dec 15th being just 5.5".
2025-26 is at 12.6" to date.

Thanks for bringing up 2005-06! So many people thought we were in store for another rough winter, it wound up being fairly mild after New Year’s

[CheeselandSkies]

Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.

[DocATL]

Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.

I added fuel stabilizer so it’s ready for summer.

[nvck]

https://x.com/i/status/2001009884540834205

Fwiw (not much, probably)

[buckeye]

2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Bunch of people rushed out and bought snowblowers for the end of November storm; now won't use them again for 5 years.

I got rid of my snowblower this past summer.  I was sick and tired of having to reset the tires on the rims every fall and struggle with getting it to start.   For the last several winters I think I used it once or twice, other than that it took up garage space and collected dust.   

Of course now we've had two snowfalls in the last few weeks that I could have used it already.    

[Frog Town]

18 minutes ago, buckeye said:

I got rid of my snowblower this past summer.  I was sick and tired of having to reset the tires on the rims every fall and struggle with getting it to start.   For the last several winters I think I used it once or twice, other than that it took up garage space and collected dust.   

Of course now we've had two snowfalls in the last few weeks that I could have used it already.    

Take away...when you buy a snowblower, it doesn't snow and when you get rid of it, it does.  

[Malacka11]

Someone w some cash to burn should acquire one of those fake snow systems that ski resorts use and see what happens. Maybe we can reverse-psychology ma nature into putting up finally... or you can pay my block a visit, it works out either way.

[IWXwx]

7 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Someone w some cash to burn should acquire one of those fake snow systems that ski resorts use and see what happens. Maybe we can reverse-psychology ma nature into putting up finally... or you can pay my block a visit, it works out either way.

Who was it in here that once had a snow making machine? There may have been two people.

[cyclone77]

20 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

Who was it in here that once had a snow making machine? There may have been two people.

I think torchartie did it if I remember right.

[beavis1729]

15 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

I think torchartie did it if I remember right.

And Midlo VA Snowmaker, who often posted in the mid-Atlantic forum. 

[Baum]

are we still doing 65 on Christmas?
 

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzzzzz

 

EPS v ugly, not just for snow but for interesting wx

[DocATL]

are we still doing 65 on Christmas?
 

My old stomping grounds are looking at mid 70’s!

[hlcater]

torchin

[A-L-E-K]

EPS continue to have a strong ridge centered over mby

[buckeye]

solidly negative pna for the foreseeable.  If the mjo heads back into the COD and exits into 4,5 then the only hope will be a herculean block to develop and that may only partially save the easterners.    Other than that we might end up going full blown torch.   

I'm going to Hawaii in Feb.   Hmmmm, last time I went to Hawaii was January 2012     #Forch  #Morch

[michsnowfreak]

Not sure how long the more hostile pattern will last, but definitely dont see any pattern sustaining itself the rest of winter.  

One analog year that Ive not seen thrown around, but this winter is somewhat resembling so far (at least through the forecasted end of December) is 1964-65.